It wasn’t that long ago (2020) that Ridley was a top-five fantasy football receiver in all formats. But the former first-rounder has played just five games over the past two seasons (broken foot and gambling suspension) and is joining a new offense after being dealt in the middle of last season.
Ridley enters his age-28 campaign having caught 28 touchdown passes in 49 career games while averaging 13.5 yards per grab. And yet, there are questions about if he is the WR1 on his own team, let alone if he will be locked in as a fantasy starter.
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Calvin Ridley’s Fantasy Outlook
Without Ridley last season, the Jags were a top-10 offense in both points per game and yards per play as Trevor Lawrence’s development took a major step. The Jacksonville Jaguars shelled out $72 million for Christian Kirk, and he produced his first 1,000-yard season, showing a nice connection with Lawrence from the slot.
Evan Engram and Zay Jones also shined in their first season with the team, both setting career marks in catches and yards, thus making Ridley more of a luxury add — in theory.
It’s not crazy to think Ridley simply blends into an already strong offense, offers some big-play upside, and complements the pieces that were put in place last season that allowed this team to make the playoffs for just the second time in 15 years. It’s also not crazy to think his talent could jump off the screen and land him atop an offense that features one of the game’s most promising passers.
How Will Ridley Fit Into This Offense?
Over his three healthy seasons (2018-20), Ridley led the 145 qualified receivers in fantasy production when lined up out wide.
It stands to reason that both he and Christian Kirk (second-most fantasy points from the slot last season) can produce in this budding offense, something that would make Jones (76.8% of his fantasy points last season came when lined up out wide) the odd man out. I believe that Ridley immediately becomes a co-WR1, Kirk retains value, and Jones isn’t worth your time.
MORE: 2023 WR Fantasy Football Rankings
Kirk and Jones combined for 21.6 half-PPR points per game, a total that makes for a good starting point when trying to gauge what the Kirk/Ridley tandem can do … but with the upside to do significantly more. Jones ranked 65th among receivers in aDOT and averaged just 10.0 yards per catch … yeah, give me the over in both of those categories for Ridley.
Of course, by assuming the big-play role in this offense, there will be some down weeks, but when trying to frame a projection for 2023, I truly think you can use Jones’ 2022 (9.8 half-PPR ppg) as something of a floor and dial up the fantasy points per catch by 25-35% if you’re trying to quantify what a ceiling might look like (13 ppg would threaten WR1 territory).
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Ridley at His ADP?
Ridley is considered a low-end WR2 on most sites, requiring a late fourth-round or fifth-round pick to add him to your roster. For me, he’s a certain buy in the fifth round or later, as it gives you the ability to build a stable foundation before bringing in some risk by way of Ridley.
When you look at his general draft tier (be it positional with Terry McLaurin/D.J. Moore or just overall with Aaron Jones/Dameon Pierce), you’re signing up for a level of risk no matter how you do it, but the upside offered here is unique.
Let me pose a question to you: Is Ridley Garrett Wilson with a lesser publicist? I mean, both come with first-round draft capital, they are near identical when it comes to stature, and they were within 2.0 half-PPR points of one another during their rookie seasons.
Wilson is catching passes from a Hall of Fame quarterback past his prime, while Ridley is yet to experience his peaks years. I will give you that Ridley faces stiffer target competition and that we haven’t seen him on an NFL field in well over 600 days, but is that enough to justify this difference in ADP?