Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Calvin Ridley is going to be one of the most important players in fantasy this season. I struggle to think of a wide receiver with a wider range of outcomes. Should fantasy football managers draft Ridley at his ADP this season?
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Calvin Ridley’s Fantasy Outlook for the 2023 NFL Season
What to do with Ridley? This is easily one of the biggest questions fantasy managers face heading into the season.
At his best, Ridley has elite WR1 upside. He averaged 18.8 PPR fantasy points per game in 2020, finishing inside the top five. There’s no doubt a similar season is in his range of outcomes.
On the other side, we have the fact that Ridley struggled mightily in 2021, averaging just 14.2 ppg.
Then, he stepped away from football, and during his time away, he gambled on the sport, resulting in a suspension for the entire 2022 season. We have not seen Ridley play football at a high level since 2020. That’s a very long time.
There’s no denying Ridley is set up to succeed. He will be away from Matt Ryan for the first time in his career but gets to play with Trevor Lawrence and the ascending Jaguars offense. This team is poised to take another step forward and should score a lot of points.
Last season, the Jaguars had a 57% neutral game script pass rate. They’ve since added Ridley and a pass-catching running back, Tank Bigsby. It’s very easy to paint a picture where the Jaguars throw even more this season.
Is Ridley a Good Fantasy Pick?
If Ridley can return to the level of play we saw in 2021, his upside is legitimately in the top five. It may be difficult to pinpoint which of the top receivers he will overtake, but if Ridley averages over 18 ppg, it really doesn’t matter — that will make him one of the best values in 2023 fantasy drafts.
The downside is that Ridley simply isn’t good at football anymore. The Jaguars have other talented pass catchers like Christian Kirk and Evan Engram. Zay Jones proved to be a capable WR3 last season. This offense has no shortage of weapons if Ridley can’t do it anymore. Talent comments volume. Ridley’s talent needs to command it.
I think some fantasy managers can forget that despite having played just four seasons, Ridley is already 28 years old. He is closer to the end of his career than the beginning. Expecting him to immediately regain his elite form would be unwise.
To be fair, that’s why his ADP is WR19, No. 43 overall. It’s a fair price for a player who has been away from the game as long as he has but has an established ceiling significantly higher.
I’ve fully come around on Ridley, ranking him at WR16. I am the highest on him out of the four of us making up our PFN consensus rankings.
Fantasy football championships aren’t won with floor plays; they are won with ceiling players. Given where Ridley goes, the risk is worth the reward.