Former Jacksonville Jaguars WR Calvin Ridley is now a member of the Tennessee Titans. With one of the most lucrative WR contracts in the league, expectations are high for the former first-rounder. After an inconsistent but mostly poor 2023 season, can Ridley re-emerge as a top fantasy football option?
Calvin Ridley’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
The Titans are doing everything they can to surround Will Levis with offensive pieces. If they don’t succeed, it certainly won’t be for lack of trying.
After adding Tony Pollard to their backfield, the Titans’ second big splash was bringing in the former Jaguars and Falcons WR, Ridley. The Titans have a lengthy history of signing older receivers who are past their prime. However, at 29 years old, Ridley is much younger than his predecessors: DeAndre Hopkins (31), Julio Jones (32), and Andre Johnson (35). The team clearly has a type.
Calvin Ridley last season:
➡️ 76 receptions
➡️ 1,016 rec. yards
➡️ 8 TDsWhere will the #Jaguars FA play in 2024? 👀pic.twitter.com/NyiHaGtwiP
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) February 21, 2024
Ridley is almost certainly not going to remain an NFL-caliber WR for the duration of his four-year contract, but fantasy managers drafting for the 2024 season need not concern themselves with that. The question is: What can Ridley do this year?
The Titans are obviously hoping for the version of Ridley that caught 90 passes for 1,374 yards and nine touchdowns in 2020. We’d all love to see that Ridley return. Unfortunately, that was four years ago. Four years is a long, long time in the NFL.
Since then, Ridley played five very underwhelming games in the 2021 season before stepping away from football and then sat out the entire 2022 season due to a gambling suspension.
When Ridley was reinstated last year, for all intents and purposes, it had been three years since he played football at a high level. Yet, training camp hype pushed Ridley from a Round 5/6 ADP all the way up to the 2/3 turn.
In a year where there were many fantasy busts, Ridley was right up there with them. Despite being the Jaguars’ presumptive WR1, he saw just a 22.6% target share and was targeted on just 21.4% of his routes run.
So, why didn’t Trevor Lawrence look Ridley’s way more often? Sometimes, the simplest answer is the correct one. Ridley couldn’t get open. According to NFL NexGen stats, his 2.3 yards of separation on average was the 10th lowest in the league.
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To be fair, his teammate Hopkins also averaged 2.3 yards of separation. However, Hopkins wasn’t drafted inside the top 24-28 picks.
One explanation for Ridley’s struggles was the Jaguars’ unwillingness to scheme the ball to him. Ridley ran just 18% of his routes from the slot. His 13.2 aDOT (average depth of target) was 22nd in the league. The Jaguars kept trying to push the ball downfield to Ridley, never really giving him layup targets.
The counterpoint to that is Ridley didn’t warrant having plays specifically designed to force the ball to him. Christian Kirk was the best receiver on the Jaguars last season. I would argue Evan Engram was second.
Ridley averaged 1.6 yards per route run, 48th in the league, and 7.5 yards per target, 60th in the league. His catch rate fell to a career-low 55.9%.
To be fair, some of the blame can, and should, fall on Lawrence’s shoulders. Lawrence is nowhere near the talent he was made out to be. But Lawrence is a better quarterback than Levis. And even at 32 years old, Hopkins is a far more formidable competition for targets than Kirk.
Now, Ridley is another year older. He’s on a new team with an expected quarterback downgrade. He faces stiffer competition for targets. And the Titans are one of the most run-heavy offenses in the league.
Since 2020, the Titans have run the ball 48% of the time in a neutral game script. Derrick Henry undoubtedly played a big role in that, but the team signing Pollard while already having a capable back in Tyjae Spears suggests they want to continue being a run-first offense. It’s possible that Ridley could see an increase in target share but not experience an increase in total targets.
Should You Draft Ridley in 2024 Best Ball Leagues?
As a friendly reminder, this article was written in March. New information can and will impact fantasy values as the offseason progresses. But right now, there’s absolutely no way I can endorse selecting Ridley in Best Ball or any fantasy format.
For starters, the Titans aren’t exactly an offense I want to invest heavily in. They have no fewer than five players that are going to be selected in fantasy drafts. The problem is this offense cannot support all of them on a weekly basis. At least two of them will likely be left out each week.
KEEP READING: Best Ball Fantasy WR Rankings 2024
Most importantly, Ridley is currently being drafted six spots ahead of Hopkins. I prefer Hopkins, and not just at cost. If given the choice between both of the Titans’ WRs, I would take Hopkins. Yet, to draft Ridley, we have to pay more. Sorry, no thank you.
Ridley averaged just 0.3 fantasy points per game more than Hopkins last season. A bigger concern is Ridley had just four 100-yard games (one of which came in Week 18), and nine games with 53 yards or fewer. He posted single-digit fantasy points nine times.
I see Ridley having less upside this season than he did last season, and last season wasn’t particularly helpful for fantasy managers. There is a price for everyone, but Ridley would have to fall into a spot he just never will in order for me to draft him.
