Development isn’t linear. Some players are allowed to learn and thrive right away, while others are forced to learn from the sidelines. Unsurprisingly, this trickles down to our fantasy football decisions.
Pittsburgh Steelers WR Calvin Austin III’s dynasty value didn’t get any help from a 17-catch first active season (a foot injury cost him his entire rookie year), but be careful in outright dismissing a productive collegiate receiver before having much of a professional sample size.
Calvin Austin III’s Dynasty Outlook
You never want to judge a book by its cover, but — generally speaking — over the past decade, receivers as slight in build as Austin (5’9”, 162 pounds) who have succeeded have been able to show what they can do right out of the gate.
The #Steelers add another playmaker to the WR room with #Memphis wide receiver, Calvin Austin III ⤵️
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) April 30, 2022
Not including the 2023 rookie class — because their stories still have plenty to be written — here are the sub-190 pound receivers that have thrived from a fantasy football perspective and how many routes they ran per game in their first 17 NFL appearances:
- Brandin Cooks: 37.8
- Jaylen Waddle: 35.6
- DeVonta Smith: 30.2
- Chris Olave: 29.5
- Tyler Lockett: 27.5
- Diontae Johnson: 26.8
Some of those receivers took more time to develop than others, but they were all given the chance to get professional reps right away. That wasn’t so much the case for Austin (13.4 routes per game) in 2023.
Now, part of that is due to the talent ahead of him at the position, but the point remains that players like this require time to find their niche, and Austin wasn’t afforded that opportunity.
MORE: Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade Value Chart
That said, in the past, productive receivers built like this have been the exception. The list above covers 2014-22, and 2023’s draft class could threaten that sample size alone with Jordan Addison, Zay Flowers, Tank Dell, Josh Downs, and Jayden Reed all impressing in their first season.
In this era of speed and space, Austin’s potential to produce is greater now than in years past. We know he has the talent — he had a pair of 1,000-yard seasons during his time at Memphis (19 touchdown receptions in those seasons).
Years ago, Austin would already be dismissed as a viable fantasy option across all formats, but we aren’t yet at that point as he enters his age-25 season.
Austin’s Dynasty Ranking
Where does Austin land in the dynasty WR landscape going into the 2024 offseason? Here are Soppe’s latest rankings, featuring where Austin lands in comparison to other top names at the position.
Kyle Soppe’s Top WR Rankings
1) Ja’Marr Chase | CIN
2) Justin Jefferson | MIN
3) Tyreek Hill | MIA
4) CeeDee Lamb | DAL
5) Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET
6) A.J. Brown | PHI
7) Garrett Wilson | NYJ
8) Jaylen Waddle | MIA
9) Chris Olave | NO
10) Tee Higgins | CIN
11) Brandon Aiyuk | SF
12) Puka Nacua | LAR
13) DJ Moore | CHI
14) Nico Collins | HOU
15) Rashee Rice | KC
16) Michael Pittman Jr. | IND
17) Amari Cooper | CLE
18) Cooper Kupp | LAR
19) DeVonta Smith | PHI
20) DK Metcalf | SEA
21) Zay Flowers | BAL
22) Drake London | ATL
23) Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA
24) Davante Adams | LV
25) Mike Evans | TB
26) Tank Dell | HOU
27) Jayden Reed | GB
28) Deebo Samuel | SF
29) Calvin Ridley | JAX
30) Stefon Diggs | BUF
31) Jordan Addison | MIN
32) Keenan Allen | LAC
33) Terry McLaurin | WAS
34) George Pickens | PIT
35) Chris Godwin | TB
36) Josh Downs | IND
37) Gabe Davis | BUF
38) Michael Wilson | ARI
39) Jameson Williams | DET
40) Elijah Moore | CLE
41) Romeo Doubs | GB
42) Jerry Jeudy | DEN
43) Christian Kirk | JAX
44) Diontae Johnson | PIT
45) DeAndre Hopkins | TEN
46) Khalil Shakir | BUF
47) Joshua Palmer | LAC
48) Jahan Dotson | WAS
49) Courtland Sutton | DEN
50) Jakobi Meyers | LV
51) Treylon Burks | TEN
52) Christian Watson | GB
53) Marquise Brown | ARI
54) Mike Williams | LAC
55) Tyler Lockett | SEA
56) Zay Jones | JAX
57) Jonathan Mingo | CAR
58) Quentin Johnston | LAC
59) Jalin Hyatt | NYG
60) Noah Brown | HOU
61) Tutu Atwell | LAR
62) Michael Thomas | NO
63) Marvin Mims Jr. | DEN
64) Kendrick Bourne | NE
65) Adam Thielen | CAR
66) Cedric Tillman | CLE
67) Rashid Shaheed | NO
68) Brandin Cooks | DAL
69) Trey Palmer | TB
70) Darius Slayton | NYG
71) Wan’Dale Robinson | NYG
72) Darnell Mooney | CHI
73) Kadarius Toney | KC
74) Rashod Bateman | BAL
75) John Metchie III | HOU
76) Rondale Moore | ARI
77) Skyy Moore | KC
78) Donovan Peoples-Jones | DET
79) Alec Pierce | IND
80) Mecole Hardman Jr. | KC
81) Allen Lazard | NYJ
82) Tyler Boyd | CIN
83) DJ Chark | CAR
84) Josh Reynolds | DET
85) Odell Beckham Jr. | BAL
86) Michael Gallup | DAL
87) Tyquan Thornton | NE
88) Curtis Samuel | WAS
89) Isaiah Hodgins | NYG
90) Robert Woods | HOU
91) Terrace Marshall Jr. | CAR
92) Hunter Renfrow | LV
93) Xavier Hutchinson | HOU
94) Kayshon Boutte | NE
95) Marquez Valdes-Scantling | KC
96) K.J. Osborn | MIN
97) Greg Dortch | ARI
98) Parris Campbell | NYG
99) JuJu Smith-Schuster | NE
100) Chase Claypool | MIA
101) Allen Robinson II | PIT
102) Van Jefferson | ATL
103) Tyler Scott | CHI
104) Russell Gage | TB
105) David Bell | CLE
106) KJ Hamler | FA
107) DeVante Parker | NE
108) Sterling Shepard | NYG
109) Richie James Jr. | KC
110) Isaiah McKenzie | IND
111) Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | TEN
112) Mack Hollins | ATL
113) Kyle Philips | TEN
114) Quez Watkins | PHI
115) Laviska Shenault Jr. | CAR
116) Devin Duvernay | BAL
117) Justyn Ross | KC
118) Braxton Berrios | MIA
119) Nelson Agholor | BAL
120) Robbie Chosen | MIA
121) Calvin Austin III | PIT
122) A.T. Perry | NO
123) Marvin Jones Jr. | DET
124) Jarvis Landry | FA
125) Jamison Crowder | WAS
Should You Trade Austin in Dynasty?
Are you considering trading Austin? Our free PFN Trade Analyzer allows you to find the best trade offer to make in seconds!
The usage concerns I raised are real, but what worries me most is what Austin did when he was on the field. On his limited opportunities, the undersized receiver was targeted on just 13.2% of his routes. For reference, that lumps him in the same range as Tennessee Titans WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (13.7%) and Kansas City Chiefs WR Skyy Moore (13.2%) for last season.
Combine that with the fact that the majority of his production came with the Steelers playing from behind by multiple possessions, and Austin has yet to give us any real reason for optimism.
- Down 10+ points: 10 catches on 11 targets (90.9%)
- Otherwise: Seven receptions on 19 targets (36.8%)
If you’re looking for a silver lining, Austin did cause three defensive pass interference penalties, a stat that is at least a little bit encouraging when it comes to his ability to separate in a meaningful way from the defense.
The uncertainty of the QB position in Pittsburgh might well prove to be a limiting force for all development on this offense. That takes Austin off my radar in startup dynasty leagues.
If your roster already has him stashed, I don’t think you have much of a choice –- the trade market isn’t there, and the free agent pool in dynasty leagues is so shallow that cutting a young player like this in a franchise that has developed receivers at an elite level doesn’t make much sense.
KEEP READING: Dynasty Trade Advice — DeVonta Smith, Cooper Kupp, Treylon Burks
Luckily, it’s unlikely that you invested much in Austin –- hang tight and see where his third year takes us; it’s a low-risk proposition.
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