The Chicago Bears‘ latest quest to find a franchise quarterback landed them Caleb Williams, the former Heisman Trophy-winning QB from USC who was the No. 1 overall pick in last April’s NFL Draft.
Williams is expected to be the starting quarterback right out of the gate. But is that, along with the Bears’ ability to upgrade at several offensive positions, enough for fantasy managers to select the rookie signal-caller?
Here’s the fantasy outlook for Williams this season.
Caleb Williams’ Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
At a school with a loaded history of exceptional quarterbacks, it was Williams who set numerous records at USC. Two years ago, when he captured the Heisman Trophy as a sophomore, Williams set single-season school records for total offense (4,919 yards), passing yards (4,537), and passing touchdowns (42).
Last season wasn’t as productive for Williams, as his passing yards declined from 324.1 pass YPG in 2022 to 302.8 in 2023. In addition, his touchdown passes went down from 42 in 2022 to 30 in 2023, albeit in two fewer games.
However, his completion percentage last season (68.6%), yards per pass attempt (9.4), and passer efficiency rating (170.1) were all the highest of his career. In addition, despite playing in two fewer games, Williams’ 11 touchdown runs were one more than in 2022.
Still, Williams did go from 22 passing TD and only one interception in his first six games last season to just eight TD passes and four interceptions in his final six games.
While not the dual-threat quarterback at the level of fellow rookie Jayden Daniels, it is still worth noting that Williams scored 27 touchdowns on the ground in his three collegiate seasons. In his college career, Williams finished with 120 combined passing and rushing touchdowns in only 37 games.
Also appealing for fantasy football managers has to be Williams’ ability to keep mistakes to a minimum. Williams never threw more than five interceptions in any of his three collegiate seasons, and overall had a combined total of just 14 turnovers in 1,099 career pass attempts, an average of one turnover every 78.5 pass attempts.
It also means he threw one interception every 6.6 pass passing touchdowns, an impressive display of efficiency.
And Williams will not be throwing and handing off to a bunch of fellow rookies this season. The Bears added running back D’Andre Swift in the offseason. Swift is coming off his first 1,000-yard rushing season (1,049 yards) and has almost 200 career receptions (195) in his four NFL seasons.
Chicago also returns DJ Moore as the No. 1 wide receiver. Moore is coming off the best season of his six-season NFL career, establishing career highs in receptions (96), receiving yards (1,364) and touchdown receptions (8).
After watching C.J. Stroud put up one of the best seasons ever for a rookie quarterback in 2023, fantasy managers are probably right to expect something similar from this year’s No. 1 overall draft pick.
Is Caleb Williams a Good Fantasy Pick?
Williams is ranked as the No. 13 quarterback in Pro Football Network’s 2024 Fantasy Quarterback Rankings.
Being ranked ahead of veteran quarterbacks Kirk Cousins, Jared Goff, Tua Tagovailoa, and Justin Herbert certainly must be an eye-opener for fantasy managers.
This signals faith in Williams’ ability to make an immediate impact, and in the Bears’ ability to upgrade at several offensive positions.
Williams’ numbers at USC in 2023 may not have been the same as his Heisman-winning 2022 season. But he was still regarded as the top quarterback prospect in a pretty good pool of quarterbacks in last spring’s draft.
A mid-round selection of Williams hardly seems like a reach for fantasy football managers.
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Williams’ ADP is currently pretty pricey, going off the board at No. 97 overall as the QB15. For some additional context, Williams is currently being drafted ahead of Trevor Lawrence, Kirk Cousins, and Aaron Rodgers heading into his rookie year.
There is no denying that Williams is stepping into a very fantasy-friendly situation. His collection of pass-catchers rivals any other receiver room in the NFL. Yet, he is still just a rookie signal caller who is likely to have some real growing pains adjusting to the professional game.
Williams’ price point in the ninth round is fairly reasonable but still a bit risky given the uncertain expectations for the Bears’ offense in 2024.
If you believe Williams’ brief struggles during his final year at USC were tied to poor offensive line play and a terrible defense that forced him to play a bit recklessly with the ball last year, then you are probably willing to overlook those concerns. He truly does have some elite traits and a great complement of weapons at his disposal.
The price point isn’t bad considering the upside tied to his situation, but ultimately investing that type of draft capital in a rookie quarterback feels a bit too risky for my liking.