Making a prediction for this Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets matchup is tougher now than it appeared a week or two ago. Can the Bills bounce back from two tough performances, or will the Jets add to their misery? Let’s take a look at the storylines for Bills at Jets this week and make a prediction for how the game could go.
Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets Predictions | Storylines to watch in Week 10
A matchup of the 2-6 New York Jets and the 5-3 Buffalo Bills should not really be one we are questioning from a prediction standpoint. However, the Bills have now struggled two weeks in a row against supposedly “lesser” AFC teams.
This week, they face a Jets team that nearly always plays the Bills hard. Last season was the first time since 2015 that Buffalo swept the season series against New York. Those games last year featured mixed performances from the Bills.
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In New York, the Bills raced out to a 21-0 lead before the Jets scored late to make it a 10-point loss. However, in Buffalo, it was the Jets who jumped out to a 10-0 lead. The Bills had to rely on 6 field goals from Tyler Bass in order to win with an unconvincing 18-10 scoreline.
Let’s take a look at the potential storylines for this Week 10 matchup that could have a defining effect on Buffalo’s season.
Are the Bills being exposed as AFC pretenders?
The last three games were extremely concerning for the Bills. After they defeated the Chiefs in Week 5, this team was the toast of the AFC. Then they lost to the Titans 34-31, which at the time seemed like a bit of a letdown game following their dominant victory over Kansas City.
However, the Bills stumbled out of their Week 7 bye in what should have been two easily winnable games. Buffalo was a 14-point favorite against the Dolphins, and while they covered, it was not pretty. With 9:39 left in the fourth quarter, Miami trailed by just one score.
Then, the Bills went to Jacksonville as 14.5-point favorites against a team who has been humiliated this season — but Buffalo struggled so much that they actually lost. The Jaguars cooked up a perfect scheme against Josh Allen. They sat back, prevented big plays, and forced Allen to make something happen. That blueprint is one we might now see other teams mimic down the stretch.
The problem for the Bills is that they are now 5-3 despite facing the weakest schedule in the league so far. Five of Buffalo’s eight games have come against teams with losing records, and that continues this week. Against clubs with winning records, they are 1-2, including a confusing Week 1 loss to the Steelers. Additionally, the Bills are 0-3 in one-score games. Are they struggling to get over the line in close contests this season?
Can the Bills overcome offensive line concerns?
Injuries have decimated Buffalo’s offensive line. The Bills have a top-10 offensive line, but they really struggled against the Jaguars last week. Jon Feliciano has been placed on injured reserve, and the situation at tackle has been in flux. Spencer Brown missed the last two games, forcing Daryl Williams back outside to tackle. That has left Ike Boettger and Cody Ford to play at guard.
If the Bills can get a healthy Brown back at tackle, they can kick Williams back inside to guard and have Ford slide into a backup role. It looks like Brown will be back, as he was upgraded to a full participant on the Bills’ injury report Thursday. The Jets have a below-average defensive front. But in Shaq Lawson, they have a former Bills defender who will be looking to make an impact against his old team.
Is Mike White the real deal?
After an unconvincing effort in relief of Zach Wilson against the Patriots, Mike White has quickly made himself a major talking point in the NFL. He completed 37 of 45 passes for 405 yards with 3 touchdowns against the Bengals in Week 8. Facing the Colts in Week 9, he was 7-of-11 for 95 yards and a touchdown before leaving the game with an injury. White had a passer rating of 107.9 in Week 8 and 121.4 in Week 9.
Wilson is expected to miss another week or two, so White will start again in Week 10. The Bills have the best defense in the league in 2021. They rank first in points, yards allowed, net passing yards per attempt, and passing touchdowns allowed. Buffalo has incredibly allowed only 5 passing touchdowns while grabbing 11 interceptions, and they have forced 8 fumbles.
This will be the toughest of the three matchups that White has faced this season. If he plays well against the Bills, then conversations about whether he should remain the starter when Wilson is healthy will really begin to ramp up. We are now at the point where there is enough film available on White as a starter — will we see him regress, or will he continue to impress?
Bills at Jets betting line and game prediction
Despite their loss last week, the Bills are once again double-digit favorites. Those NFL odds make a lot of sense given the disparity between these two teams. However, this game could come down to Buffalo’s offensive line. We saw the Colts dominate the Jets thanks to their offensive line playing well. If Buffalo’s OL struggles, it will pile the pressure onto Allen.
Allen should be able to move the ball on New York’s secondary, which is loaded with young players. Whether the Bills can win by more than 10 points is up for debate, but it’s tough to see Buffalo getting upset for a second straight week.
Bills vs. Jets prediction: Bills 30, Jets 21