You like defense? You’ll love Sunday’s matchup between the Buffalo Bills and the visiting New England Patriots, who rank first and third in defensive expected points added per play (EPA), respectively. No surprise, then, that the Bills (7-4) and Patriots (8-4) are in a fierce battle for AFC East supremacy. Per FiveThirtyEight, the Bills’ chances to win the division jump to 80% with a win, while the Patriots’ odds with a win would be 78%.
New England Patriots offense vs. Buffalo Bills defense
The Patriots are the most complete team in football right now. Since Week 6, their offensive EPA per play (0.152) is the best in football. They have a solid offensive line, a powerful running game, and a locked-in quarterback who is making strides every week. During their six-game winning streak, they’ve scored 211 points, including 36 in a blowout win over the No. 3 seeded Tennessee Titans in Week 12.
Of the Bills’ four losses, only two are on the defense: against the Titans in Week 6 and the Colts in Week 11. In Buffalo’s nine other games, Leslie Frazier’s group has allowed an average of 11.9 points. That’s elite stuff. It of course helps facing quarterbacks like Trevor Siemian, as was the case on Thanksgiving. But the season stats don’t lie: First in yards per game (275.2), yards per play (4.6), and first downs per game (17.0), and second in scoring defense (16.5).
Mac Jones vs. Bills defense
The Offensive Rookie of the Year award was probably decided in November. Ja’Marr Chase was the odds-on favorite at Halloween, but that was before Mac Jones turned on the afterburners.
In the last month, Jones has completed 76.8% of his passes for 854 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions for a passer rating of 117.2, earning him November Offensive Rookie of the Month honors. By any metric, Jones has been more efficient this year than Tom Brady was in 2001. That should be scary for the rest of the NFL.
This is Jones’ first of many times facing a Bills defense that this year has made Patrick Mahomes (70.9 passer rating), Carson Wentz (86.7), and Tua Tagovailoa (56.2 in two starts) look pedestrian, at best. The Bills’ defense leads the league in yards per pass (5.3) and passer rating against (62.8) and ranks second in passing yards per game (178.5) and interception rate (4.4%). But that was with Tre’Davious White, who is out for the season with a torn ACL. That’s a huge loss.
Advantage: Bills
Patriots weapons vs. Bills defensive backs
Kendrick Bourne has quietly been one of the best free-agent signings of the 2021 NFL cycle. His three-year, $15 million contract seems like a steal when you consider he leads the team in receiving yards (623) and yards per catch (14.8), and his second to only Hunter Henry in touchdowns (7).
The key to his success? A 79.2% catch rate and a 7.0 yards after catch average. Bourne, Jakobi Meyers, and Nelson Agholor on the outside, Henry and Jonnu Smith up the seams, and Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson in the backfield might not be a sexy collection of names, but it’s certainly an effective one.
[bet-promo id=”174860″ ]With White out, there’s a great big hole in Buffalo’s secondary. He had held opposing passers to completions on just 51.6% of their attempts and a 59.9 passer rating. The next man up presumably is Dane Jackson, who has logged just 322 defensive snaps in his NFL career and has surrendered 2 touchdowns on 31 targets. The Bills still have two solid corners in Levi Wallace and Taron Johnson, but we do expect a dropoff.
Advantage: Push
Patriots offensive line vs. Bills front seven
During the Patriots’ winning streak, they’ve run the ball 198 times for 864 yards — which is three yards more than the Houston Texans have rushed for all season. Jones has been sacked 11 times and hit 25 times during that run. The offensive line has no discernable weaknesses, particularly with right tackle Trent Brown back in the starting lineup. New England ranks 19th in yards per carry (4.1) and 17th in sack rate (17). It’s not flashy, but it’s effective.
The Bills have 14 players with at least a half-sack but none with more than four. That by-committee approach hasn’t been overwhelming. Buffalo entered Week 13 ranked 24th in yards per pass attempt (5.7%).
On the flip side, the Bills are second in yards per carry allowed (3.9). So it’ll be strength vs. strength Sunday. Matt Milano (11 tackles for loss), Mario Addison (4 sacks, 5 QB hits), and rookie Gregory Rousseau (3 sacks, five TFLs) are Buffalo’s most dependable front-seven playmakers. Star Lotulelei was activated off the league’s reserve/COVID-19 list this week.
Advantage: Push
Buffalo Bills offense vs. New England Patriots defense
Every time we’ve thought this season the Bills have got it figured out on offense, they throw up a clunker. They followed up a 45-point explosion against the Jets with a 6-point output against the terrible Jaguars. Buffalo lit up a good Saints defense for 31 points on Thanksgiving, so you’d like to think the offense’s issues have been resolved. They’re simply too good to be that inconsistent. On the year, the Bills are second in scoring (29.6 per game) and sixth in yards per play (6.0).
The Patriots’ run defense rankings took a hit Sunday when New England allowed a Derrick Henry-less Titans outfit to ring them up for 270 yards and a touchdown on 39 carries. And yet, the Titans managed just 13 points. How? The Patriots forced 4 turnovers and kept Tennessee out of the end zone on 1 of 2 trips. Both areas have been strengths for the Patriots all year. New England ranks second in turnover margin (+10) and third in red-zone defense (48.4%).
Josh Allen vs. Patriots defense
Rankings for Allen in the major passing stats: third in touchdowns (25), fourth in EPA + CPOE (0.15), sixth in QBR (60.8), 10th in passer rating (99.1), and 11th in yards per pass (7.5). So it’s clear he’s still a top-tier quarterback, even if his numbers aren’t quite as good as they were in 2020.
Now, let’s look at Allen’s career stats against the Patriots: 84-of-149 for 1,052 yards (7.1 per attempt), 7 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, and a 77.4 rating.
While the Patriots were permissive on the ground in Week 12, they were downright stingy through the air. Ryan Tannehill’s regression continued with an 11-of-21 passing performance that produced just 93 yards. New England has surrendered over 300 yards passing just once all year and hasn’t given up 200 yards passing since Week 8. The Patriots’ interception rate (4.8%) is first in the league, and their yards per pass allowed (6.0) is third.
Advantage: Patriots
Bills weapons vs. Patriots defensive backs
Barring injury, pencil Stefon Diggs (67-847-7) in for another 1,000-yard season. But there’s no doubt he’s taken a step back in productivity. Part of it is due to opportunity. He’s seeing 1.3 fewer targets per game, but also his catch rate (66.3%) is way down.
To be fair, Emmanuel Sanders (36-559-4) has eaten into his usage — and for good reason. Sanders is averaging 9.2 yards per target. Dawson Knox’s 7 touchdowns are tied with Henry for most among all tight ends.
Newly-minted AFC Defensive Player of the Month J.C. Jackson is the Patriots’ trash man. And we mean that as a compliment. After Jackson picked off his seventh pass of the season and forced a fumble against the Titans, Bill Belichick quipped, “You leave any trash laying around, he’s going to pick it up.” No kidding.
Jackson has a track record that would be the envy of Waste Management. In his last two seasons, he’s picked off 16 passes (most in the NFL) and recovered 3 fumbles. Devin McCourty (36.8% completions, 24.3 passer rating against) continues to play at a very high level even at age 34. However, safety Kyle Dugger, the Patriots’ leading tackler, did test positive for COVID-19 this week.
Advantage: Patriots
Bills offensive line vs. Patriots defensive front
The Bills have invested more on the offensive line in 2021 than all but seven of the NFL’s 32 teams. And they expect production commensurate with that outlay. Have they gotten it? Indeed.
The Bills rank third in sack rate (4.1%) and ninth in yards per rush (4.6). They’re 10th in Football Outsiders’ adjusted line rushing yards (4.4) and have a 78% power success rate.
There are no flashy names (Dion Dawkins, Ike Boettger, Mitch Morse, Cody Ford, and Daryl Williams were the starting five against New Orleans), but they get the job done. Buffalo should get back starters Jon Feliciano and Spencer Brown this week.
As the Titans proved, the Patriots can be run on. They’ve allowed 4.5 yards per carry (23rd in the NFL). But New England’s front does almost everything else right. They’re seventh in sack rate (7.5%) and eighth in goal-to-go situations (62.5%). Matthew Judon has an absurd 24 QB hits and 12 tackles for loss in 651 defensive snaps and is third in the AFC with 11.5 sacks. But this is no one-man band. The Patriots play sound team football.
Advantage: Push
Betting line and game prediction
- Spread: Bills -3 (courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Moneyline: Bills -150, Patriots +130
- Total: 41.5
Patriots vs. Bills Prediction: Patriots 24, Bills 21