The Buffalo Bills are one of the league’s best teams. They have been at the top of the AFC for the last five to six years now. Unfortunately, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs have had their number. Can this be the year Josh Allen gets to the big game?
Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
Chiefs -1.5 - Moneyline
Chiefs (-125); Bills (+105) - Over/Under
47.5 total points - Game Time
6:30 p.m ET - Location
Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Mo.
Bills vs. Chiefs Preview and Prediction
According to TruMedia, the Chiefs rank 15th in net EPA (expected points added) from penalties this season in one-score situations. Only looking at the offense, they rank 19th. This is one of many ways you can show that the constant bickering about refs is absolutely ridiculous. It is not based in fact (only in feelings) any of the criticisms claiming the refs favor the Chiefs.
Another broad (and wrong) claim is that the Chiefs always get the calls in high-leverage situations, extending their drives and giving them extra chances. Well, to go above and beyond just one-score games, we can use play-by-play data which gives us access to win probability. The typical neutral game script situation is considered in between 35% and 65% win probability.
The Chiefs rank 10th in net EPA gained in these types of situations. If we change the criteria to just third downs to represent high-leverage situations, they rank 10th in net EPA as well. Lastly, we can look at just the fourth quarters — 10th in that as well. I will also link you to Joseph Hefner if you don’t believe me. Now we can get to the real analysis.
The Chiefs benefitted from great field positioning due to solid special teams and defensive play last week against Houston. Overall, the offense turned in a 62nd percentile performance in EPA and a 29th percentile performance in success rate. Not particularly impressive but good enough to get the job done. Most importantly, the Chiefs were able to largely avoid negative plays.
This season, the Chiefs had the 13th-fewest in EPA lost from sacks and sixth-fewest in EPA lost from turnovers. Being able to avoid negative plays becomes even more important in the playoffs. Since 2000, teams that win the turnover battle win at a 68.4% clip. This number jumps to 82.1% when looking at the favored team winning the turnover margin. This directly applies to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.
They are 5-1 in the playoffs (under Mahomes) with a positive turnover margin and 2-2 with a negative turnover margin. Buffalo’s defense ranks eighth in sack EPA and No. 1 in turnover EPA generated. This will bode well for Buffalo, especially with its offense ranking first in sack EPA and second in turnover EPA.
Allen and the Bills had an unspectacular performance against the Ravens but it was all they needed in a game where Lamar Jackson made uncharacteristic turnovers. Overall, the Bills should look to exploit the Kansas City passing game through big plays. The Chiefs defense ranks 23rd in passes of 20+ yards given up while Buffalo’s offense ranks fifth in generating them.
You are much better off staying in the pocket and delivering from there as the Chiefs rank seventh in defensive EPA on plays outside of the pocket and 23rd inside the pocket. Buffalo’s offense has no qualms with this, ranking first inside the pocket and second outside the pocket.
For Kansas City’s offense, the key will be to mitigate the Buffalo defense when it blitzes and gets pressure. Buffalo goes from seventh to 16th in blitz vs. non-blitz plays and 10th vs. 17th in pressure and non-pressure plays. The Chiefs are surprisingly better under pressure than not (sixth vs. 13th) and relatively equal (13th vs 10th) against the blitz and non-blitz.
This is largely because of Mahomes’ ability to avoid pressure and be unaffected by it. Mahomes ranks seventh in EPA per dropback this season under pressure. Looking at his entire career, he ranks second among all quarterbacks since 2000 with over 300 passing attempts. In that same group, he ranks second in sack rate as well. In the playoffs, he ranks fourth in sack rate and second in EPA under pressure — just unreal poise.
Buffalo’s defense is much much worse this season with a lead than when trailing. Comparing this to a Chiefs offense that performs equally with a lead and when trailing, this could be a potential downfall for Buffalo’s defense. As showcased in the game against Baltimore, the Ravens were able to make halftime adjustments that had the Bills’ defense on their heel.
If it weren’t for some costly turnovers, Buffalo’s defense could be facing much more criticism. Buffalo ranks first in third-quarter defense but 20th in fourth-quarter defense. The Chiefs are 20th in the third quarter and seventh in the fourth quarter. Without being able to lean on turnovers against the Chiefs, Buffalo will need to have a plan for the fourth quarter.
Overall, everything is razor-thin. On paper, the Bills are the more talented and skilled team. In clutch or high-leverage situations, there is no one on this planet better than Mahomes.
My pick: Chiefs ML (-125)