The Buffalo Bills enter the 2022 NFL season as Super Bowl favorites. With quarterback Josh Allen headlining an impressive roster, the time is now for this franchise to earn its first Lombardi Trophy. Let’s examine the Bills’ current record prediction, projected win totals, any intriguing prop bets involving the franchise, and their odds to win the AFC East, AFC, and Super Bowl in 2023.
All odds are from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise stated and are correct as of Aug. 9 at 12:15 p.m. ET.
Buffalo Bills record prediction 2022
Following the release of the NFL schedule, Caesars has provided odds and spreads for 11 of the Bills’ 2022 regular-season matchups. Based on those numbers, Buffalo is projected as the favorite in every game. If their first 11 games of the season match those predictions, the Bills will have an 11-0 record following Week 12 of the 2022 campaign.
Winning every game as a favorite is never that easy. The 2021 Bills found this out. Despite having an 11.5-win line and being favored regularly throughout the season, the Bills lost against underdogs like Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Jacksonville, and Indianapolis.
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Buffalo has the 13th-most difficult strength of schedule for 2022. One challenge is starting the season with four of their first six games on the road. Five of those six foes are realistic playoff challengers.
Their heartbreaking last-second loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Divisional Round was a defining moment of adversity for the franchise. It’s possible the Bills would have won the Super Bowl if they’d held onto the lead they built with 13 seconds remaining. Instead, they fell 42-36 in overtime.
Nevertheless, the Bills return as a Super Bowl favorite for 2022.
Bills odds, picks, and props
Now we know the sportsbooks’ predictions for the Bills on a week-by-week basis. Let’s look at their season-long odds for win totals, the division, conference, and the Super Bowl.
- Bills win total: 11.5 (over -140, under +120)
- Bills to win AFC East: -225
- Most wins in NFL: +450
- Highest scoring team: +550
- AFC winner: +300
- Super Bowl winner: +600
Finding value on a team favored in every single prop is difficult. The Bills’ odds and props are at the top of the market. Our potential return on any given Bills pick is low compared to other options.
That doesn’t mean we should be scared away from the 2022 Bills’ prop picks. This team finished 2021 with the third-highest scoring offense and was moments away from reaching the AFC Championship Game. They’ve deserved favorites but are also far from a surefire powerhouse in a loaded conference.
The AFC East will provide a solid challenge without threatening to actually overtake the Bills. The New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins have balanced rosters and impressive coaching staffs. But they also have enough concerns that we can be confident in the Bills’ ability to win the East.
Bills MVP odds and player props
As you’d expect with a Super Bowl favorite, the Bills have valued individual player props worth considering. That starts with Allen as the MVP favorite. Could Allen win the MVP in his fifth season?
We’ve found several advantageous Bills player props below for consideration. Let’s take a look at the best Bills awards odds and prop totals.
- MVP
Josh Allen +700 - Defensive Player of the Year
Von Miller +3000 - Coach of the Year
Sean McDermott +1800 - Josh Allen regular-season passing yards
Over/Under 4400.5 (over +100, under -120) - Devin Singletary regular-season rushing yards
Over/Under 750.5 (over -125, under -105) - Stefon Diggs regular-season receiving yards
Over/Under 1200.5 (-115) - Von Miller regular-season sacks
Over/Under 9.75 (over -130, under +100) - Tremaine Edmunds regular-season tackles
Over/Under 116.5 (-115)
It’s only fitting the Super Bowl favorite would also have the MVP favorite. Allen endured something of a regular-season regression last year compared to his breakout 2020 season, completing just 63.3% of his passes with 15 interceptions and a low 6.8 yards per-attempt rate. Those numbers will need to rise in order for him to beat out a tough list of competitors.
The Bills don’t have another favorite at a major award. Now an established team, it’s harder to produce a Rookie of the Year candidate or enough of a surprise season to win Coach of the Year. There are numerous intriguing prop bets we can get bet on.
Just how valuable former Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll was to Allen and this unit remains to be seen. From what we saw on the field, Daboll appeared to build a creative offense that maximized his playmakers effectively. Former quarterbacks coach Ken Dorsey now gets his first shot at calling plays, and he doesn’t have the benefit of patience to iron out any struggles.
Bills 2022 picks
The Bills may endure a rough patch to start the season, considering the bulk of their difficult matchups come early. If you’re looking to maximize your value on a Bills Super Bowl pick, then you could wait and hope they start no better than 4-3. It’s not likely their odds be more favorable if the Bills win four games against the Rams, Titans, Dolphins, Ravens, Steelers, Chiefs, and Packers.
Boasting arguably the most well-rounded roster in the NFL, the Bills could produce the league’s top offense and defense if everything goes right. Signing Von Miller in free agency and drafting James Cook and Kaiir Elam crossed off their three biggest positions of need. Buffalo has minor question marks remaining.
That doesn’t mean overcoming other title contenders will be easy. The Bengals, Chargers, Chiefs, and others are similarly talented. The AFC race will come down to timely playmaking and bold coaching decisions.
At the very least, Buffalo has a high floor and ceiling thanks to their excellent defense, head coach Sean McDermott, and an Allen-led offense with plenty of playmaking around him. That’s enough for me to place a unit on the Bills winning it all.
1u: Bills win the Super Bowl (+600)
1u: Bills win AFC East (-225)
1u: Bills win AFC (+300)
Player Props
The Bills’ player props can be easy to fall in love with because of the names involved, but fading growth from the stars is more likely.
Allen posted 4,544 passing yards in 2020, followed by 4,407 in 2021. His efficiency and yardage both dipped, and now he’s without one of the best play callers in the league. Just as importantly, the Bills added guard Rodger Saffold and running back James Cook to enhance their run game.
The Bills will look to take some of the pressure off Allen’s shoulders by running the ball more often. Buffalo ranked fifth in passing attempts but only 13th in rushing attempts last year. With the postseason becoming more of the focus, the Bills will start to rein in their aggressiveness as they look to survive until the playoffs.
That means more rotations for backs and less reliance on Allen to enter his Angel of Death mode. Buffalo knows they can draw upon Allen’s powers when necessary, but he’s no longer required to be superhuman each week to win.
I’m also fading Devin Singletary’s rushing total. Although Singletary finished with 870 rushing yards last season, the addition of Cook is significant. I’d argue Cook is the most talented of the trio that also includes Singletary and Zack Moss. Allen will run less frequently, and Cook and Singletary will split the lion’s share of carries.
Many expect Miller will be a high-impact presence on the NFL’s No. 1 scoring defense. He will be influential, but his sack numbers won’t directly reflect his impact. No edge rusher has produced more than seven sacks since McDermott became the head coach in Buffalo in 2017.
Miller has also shown signs of slowing down in recent years. His postseason run with the Rams earned him a fat six-year, $120 million deal with Buffalo. He’ll earn his pay but expect his teammates to benefit as much as Miller’s sack total does.
The defensive line has plenty of competition between Greg Rousseau, Ed Oliver, Shaq Lawson, Jordan Phillips, and A.J. Epenesa. Buffalo also sends their back seven on blitzes often. This approach has not been good for individual sack numbers but creates a healthy defensive ecosystem for winning.
1u: Allen under 4400.5 passing yards (-120)
1u: Singletary under 750.5 rushing yards (-105)
1u: Miller under 9.75 sacks (+100)