The Buffalo Bills‘ playoff chances have risen throughout their four-game win streak, but entering Week 18, their hopes of playing in the postseason are still hanging by a thread. The Bills’ playoff scenarios do at least partly put them in control of their own destiny, but there’s also an element of all-or-nothing for the Bills heading into Sunday Night Football.
Buffalo Bills Playoff Chances | Week 18 Update
Note that this article was re-written to reflect the latest scenarios as of Jan. 7 at 8:50 a.m. before Sunday’s games began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the day.
After their win over Miami on Sunday night, the Bills are the AFC East champions and will host the Steelers on Wild Card Weekend.
1 p.m. ET Games Update
Titans (6-11) defeated Jaguars (9-8)
Sunday Night Football Update
Bills (11-6) defeated Dolphins (11-6)
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the Bills entering Week 18. And head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture.
What Are the Buffalo Bills’ Playoff Chances and Scenarios in Week 18?
Simulations of the PFN Playoff Predictor gave the Bills around a 90% chance of playing in the postseason entering Week 18. Included in that is just under a 50% chance of winning the division.
The problem for Buffalo is that there were still a handful of paths that could see them miss out on the postseason if they failed to beat the Dolphins in Miami.
The simplest scenario for the Bills is that if they win, they’ll be the No. 2 seed in the AFC, with an AFC East division crown in their pocket. That would see them host the No. 7 seed on Wild Card Weekend and potentially in line for at least two home playoff games.
If the Bills win, they will finish 11-6 alongside the Dolphins. However, they will clinch the division thanks to winning both games against Miami this season.
Buffalo beat the Dolphins back in Week 4 before they suffered a spate of major injuries. That victory has meant that the Bills were always able to just about remain alive in the race for the East in the past month.
A tie will not be enough for the Bills to clinch the division, but it would ensure they’re in the postseason as the AFC’s No. 6 seed. That would put Buffalo in a matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs in Arrowhead on Wild Card Weekend.
The problem for the Bills is if they lose. Then they need some help from the Tennessee Titans if they are to make the postseason.
Entering the week, there were five scenarios where a Bills loss would see them make the postseason and two where they would miss out. Both of those scenarios involved the Pittsburgh Steelers and Jacksonville Jaguars winning their respective games.
The good news for the Bills is that they will know entering their Sunday Night Football game the complete situation. The bad news is that for the 24 hours leading up to that game, their fate is largely out of their control in terms of whether Sunday Night Football is an all-or-nothing situation.
The Steelers’ victory over the Baltimore Ravens on Saturday virtually ensured that the Bills would enter Sunday with a knockout scenario still in play. The only thing that could have saved Buffalo on Saturday was a tie between the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts. The Texans’ victory means that two of the four requirements for the Bills to be eliminated are now in place.
MORE: Week 18 NFL Playoff Scenarios
Buffalo may now have half an eye on the Jaguars’ game with the Titans at 1 p.m. ET. If Jacksonville wins, then Buffalo will know that a loss on Sunday Night Football will eliminate them from the postseason. But if the Titans defeat the Jaguars, Buffalo will then head into their game with the Dolphins knowing they’ll be playing on Wild Card Weekend regardless.
The problem for the Bills is that a loss to the Dolphins really hurts them in terms of NFL playoff tiebreakers. Buffalo’s conference record would drop to 6-6, and they don’t have a head-to-head with any of the Steelers, Colts, or Texans to help them out.
Wins for Pittsburgh and Houston have ensured that both teams will finish ahead of them in terms of conference record (if the Bills lose), eliminating Buffalo if the Jaguars also win to clinch the AFC South.
The Bills enter Sunday with the following clinching scenarios in Week 18:
- Bills defeat the Dolphins (win the AFC East)
- Bills tie with the Dolphins
- Jacksonville fails to win
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!