The Buffalo Bills’ playoff scenarios remain fully intact after their third straight victory coming out of their bye week. The Bills’ playoff chances have improved with those wins, two of which came over two teams we should see playing in the postseason. The question for Buffalo is whether they timed their run too late to win the AFC East.
With the assistance of the free PFN NFL Playoff Predictor, let’s examine the Bills’ playoff scenarios for the final two weeks of the season and what they need to happen if they want another division crown this year.
Buffalo Bills Playoff Chances | Week 17 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Dec. 31 before Sunday’s game began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the weekend.
After the Sunday afternoon slate in Week 17, the Bills are still the No. 6 seed in the AFC. However, because the Dolphins lost to the Ravens on Sunday, Buffalo can win the AFC if it defeats Miami in Week 18.
The Bills have yet to clinch a playoff spot and could be eliminated if they lose next Sunday.
Thursday Night Football Update
Browns (11-5) defeated Jets (6-10)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET Update
Bills (10-6) defeated Patriots (4-12)
Ravens (13-3) defeated Dolphins (11-5)
Texans (9-7) defeated Titans (5-11)
Jaguars (9-7) defeated Panthers (2-14)
Colts (9-7) defeated Raiders (7-9)
Sunday 4 p.m. ET Update
Steelers (9-7) defeated Seahawks (8-8)
Chiefs (10-6) defeated Bengals (8-8)
Broncos (8-8) defeated Chargers (5-11)
Be sure to check out our NFL Playoff Predictor to predict the rest of Week 17 and see how the playoff field shakes out.
What Are the Buffalo Bills’ Playoff Chances and Scenarios Entering Week 17?
Based on simulations from the PFN Playoff Predictor, the Bills have a close to 90% chance of making the playoffs this season and just under a 20% chance of winning the AFC East.
Making the postseason in some form is completely within the Bills’ control, but the division side of things requires a little bit of help from the Baltimore Ravens this week.
As things stand, the Bills at 9-6 are two games behind the Miami Dolphins (11-4) with two games to play. Therefore, if Miami beats Baltimore this week, it will be far enough ahead of Buffalo to clinch the division.
Even a tie would be enough for the Dolphins to ensure they are at least 1.5 games ahead of the Bills. However, a loss for Miami this week would open things right up for Buffalo if it also wins.
In that scenario, the Bills would enter Week 18 with a game against the Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium with a chance to steal the AFC East. The Bills have a huge advantage in the NFL playoff tiebreakers thanks to their Week 4 victory over the Dolphins up in Buffalo.
With the head-to-head record being the first tiebreaker, a Bills win in Week 18 would give them a 2-0 advantage there. A tie would also fall in their favor and win them the AFC East.
MORE: Buffalo Bills Depth Chart
Entering their bye week at 6-6, Buffalo could only have dreamt that it would have a chance to enter Week 18 with the division still on the line.
Now, all they can do is win out and hope the Dolphins stumble this week against a powerful Ravens team.
Can the Bills Clinch a Playoff Spot in Week 17?
Week 17 could see the Bills lock up a playoff spot if they avoid defeat and the right combination of results falls their way. There are five potential scenarios where the Bills can lock up a spot with a win and nine in play if they tie with the New England Patriots.
All 14 of the scenarios involve a combination of the Pittsburgh Steelers, Cincinnati Bengals, Jacksonville Jaguars, Houston Texans, and Indianapolis Colts. All five of those teams are sitting at 8-7 entering Week 17, meaning Buffalo could open up a two-game lead over enough of them to ensure a playoff spot.
The simplest scenarios for the Bills are that they win this week, and two of the three teams out of the Jaguars, Steelers, and Bengals lose. If that does not happen, there are two scenarios where if either the Steelers or Bengals fail to win, they would need both the Texans and Colts to lose/tie.
If the Bills tie with the Patriots, then they need at least two of those teams to lose and one other to either lose or tie. Some tie scenarios involve them needing three teams to lose, and others that are two losses and a failure to win. Let’s examine the full list of scenarios the Bills need this weekend.
- Buffalo win + Pittsburgh loss or tie + Cincinnati loss or tie OR
- Buffalo win + Pittsburgh loss or tie + Jacksonville loss or tie OR
- Buffalo win + Pittsburgh loss or tie + Houston loss or tie + Indianapolis loss or tie OR
- Buffalo win + Cincinnati loss or tie + Jacksonville loss or tie OR
- Buffalo win + Cincinnati loss or tie + Houston loss or tie + Indianapolis loss or tie OR
- Buffalo tie + Pittsburgh loss + Cincinnati loss + Jacksonville loss OR
- Buffalo tie + Pittsburgh loss + Cincinnati loss + Houston loss or tie OR
- Buffalo tie + Pittsburgh loss + Cincinnati loss + Indianapolis loss or tie OR
- Buffalo tie + Pittsburgh loss + Jacksonville loss + Houston loss or tie OR
- Buffalo tie + Pittsburgh loss + Jacksonville loss + Indianapolis loss or tie OR
- Buffalo tie + Pittsburgh loss + Houston loss + Indianapolis loss OR
- Buffalo tie + Cincinnati loss + Jacksonville loss + Houston loss or tie OR
- Buffalo tie + Cincinnati loss + Jacksonville loss + Indianapolis loss or tie OR
- Buffalo tie + Cincinnati loss + Houston loss + Indianapolis loss
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!