Few NFL teams are hotter than the Buffalo Bills, who have knocked off the Kansas City Chiefs and Dallas Cowboys in consecutive weeks to improve to 8-6 and re-insert themselves into the AFC playoff conversation. But the Bills still wouldn’t be in the postseason if the 2023 campaign ended today, so they have more work to do.
Buffalo Bills Playoff Chances | Week 16 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Saturday, Dec. 23 at 6:30 a.m. before Saturday’s games began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the day.
After all the games in Week 16, the Bills are the No. 6 seed in the AFC.
Saturday Games Update
Steelers (8-7) defeated Bengals (8-7)
Bills (9-6) defeated Chargers (5-10)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET Games Update
Browns (10-5) defeated Texans (8-7)
Falcons (7-8) defeated Colts (8-7)
Sunday 4 p.m. ET Games Update
Dolphins (11-4) defeated Cowboys (10-5)
Buccaneers (8-7) defeated Jaguars (8-7)
SNF Update
Patriots (4-11) defeated Broncos (7-8)
Christmas Day Update
Raiders (7-8) defeated Chiefs (9-6)
Ravens (12-3) defeated 49ers (11-4)
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the Bills entering Week 16. Additionally, head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture and the current NFL playoff bracket.
Bills’ Playoff Chances Entering Week 16
While the Bills didn’t get all the help they needed last week, losses by the Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7) and Denver Broncos (7-7) helped Josh Allen and Co. move up the AFC Wild Card standings.
Buffalo is the conference’s No. 9 seed heading into Week 16. The Cincinnati Bengals (8-6) hold a head-to-head playoff tiebreaker over the Bills thanks to their Week 9 victory, while the Indianapolis Colts (8-6) and Houston Texans (8-6) have the edge thanks to their superior records inside the AFC.
Sean McDermott’s squad now has a 63.7% shot of gaining entry to the playoffs, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI). That’s up from roughly a 50-50 chance entering Week 15.
If Buffalo takes down the Los Angeles Chargers on Saturday, its odds will increase to nearly 80%.
Other teams around the AFC could also help the Bills. Buffalo’s odds will be roughly 95% if the Bengals, Colts, Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Broncos lose on Sunday.
In that scenario, the Bills would emerge from Week 16’s action as the sixth seed in the AFC standings, trailing only the 10-5 Browns. Buffalo would be the only Wild Card contender with an 8-6 record, while every other rival would be at 8-7 or 7-8.
MORE: Buffalo Bills Depth Chart
To be safe, the Bills need to stay ahead of their Wild Card competition — because several playoff tiebreakers have started to mount against them. Losses to the Broncos and Bengals could prove crucial in the event of a tie involving those three teams when the season ends. The only team in the thick of the AFC playoff picture Buffalo defeated this season was the Miami Dolphins in Week 4.
A surprising loss to the Chargers on Sunday won’t eliminate the Bills from Wild Card contention, but it will make their path more difficult. If Buffalo goes down in Week 16, its playoff chances will drop to roughly one in three.
Can the Bills Still Win the AFC East?
The Bills haven’t just fought their way back into the Wild Card race — they’ve become a legitimate contender to win the AFC East.
The 10-4 Dolphins are still the favorites to walk away with the division title, with FPI pegging their AFC East chances at 68.4% entering Week 15. But Buffalo is still in the race with a 31.6% shot.
The Bills are two games behind Miami with three weeks to play. However, they beat the Dolphins in Week 4, giving them an edge in a potential tiebreaker situation.
Buffalo and Miami will play again in Week 18, when the Bills can only hope they’re still alive in the AFC East. If the Bills are one game behind the Dolphins entering Week 18, they can pass Miami with a win, thanks to the NFL’s tiebreakers.
The Dolphins still have challenging games against the Cowboys and Baltimore Ravens, so they could drop one or more contests before meeting Buffalo in the regular-season finale.
The earliest that the Bills could take the AFC East lead is Week 17, but that would require Buffalo going 2-0 and Miami going 0-2 over the next two weeks. Even then, the Dolphins would still win the division with a Week 18 victory against the Bills.
Conversely, the Bills can be eliminated from AFC East contention as early as this week. A Buffalo loss plus a Miami win/tie, or a Bills tie plus a Dolphins win, will be enough to give Mike McDaniel’s team its first division crown since 2008.
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!