While nearly every underlying metric indicates the Buffalo Bills are one of the NFL‘s elite teams, their 7-6 record entering Week 15 hardly suggests they’re locks to make the playoffs this year. Buffalo kept itself in the mix by pulling out a win against the Kansas City Chiefs last Sunday, and it will need to stay hot to fight their way into the postseason.
What must happen for the Bills to emerge as a likely playoff entrant after Week 15? And do they still have a chance to win the AFC East? Let’s discuss below.
Bills Playoff Chances | Week 15 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Dec. 17 at 9 a.m. ET before Sunday’s games began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the day.
After the Sunday slate in Week 15, the Bills remain the No. 9 seed in the AFC but are trending in the right direction after their blowout of the Dallas Cowboys.
1 p.m. ET Games Update
Dolphins (10-4) defeated Jets (5-9)
Chiefs (9-5) defeated Patriots (3-11)
Browns (9-5) defeated Bears (5-9)
Texans (8-6) defeated Titans (5-9)
4 p.m. ET Games Update
Bills (8-6) defeated Cowboys (10-4)
Sunday Night Football Game Update
Ravens (11-3) defeated Jaguars (8-6)
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the Bills entering Week 15. And head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture.
Buffalo Bills’ Playoff Chances Entering Week 15
Saturday’s AFC results weren’t perfect for the Bills, but they did get a bit of help in the Wild Card race. While Buffalo would have liked to see the Cincinnati Bengals lose, the Denver Broncos were defeated in the late game, moving one of the Bills’ primary Wild Card rivals to 7-7.
The Broncos hold a head-to-head tiebreaker against Buffalo, so their loss was incredibly beneficial for the Bills.
Josh Allen and Co. now have roughly a 50-50 shot of gaining entry to the playoffs, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI). If Buffalo takes down the Dallas Cowboys in Week 15, its odds will increase to nearly 70%.
Other teams around the AFC could also help the Bills. Buffalo’s odds will be at three in four if the Cleveland Browns, Houston Texans, and Miami Dolphins lose on Sunday.
But even in that scenario, the Bills could only move up to the eighth seed in the AFC standings. Cleveland and Indianapolis would stay ahead of Buffalo based on conference record, while Cincinnati would remain above the Bills due to its head-to-head win in Week 9.
Buffalo’s problem is that several NFL playoff tiebreakers have started to mount against them. Losses to the Broncos and Bengals could prove crucial in the event of a tie involving those three teams when the season ends. The only team in the thick of the AFC playoff picture they defeated this season was the Dolphins in Week 4.
A loss to the Cowboys on Sunday certainly won’t eliminate the Bills from Wild Card contention, but it will make their path more difficult. If Buffalo goes down in Week 15, its playoff chances will drop to roughly one in three.
If the Bills and the Texans both lose on Sunday, Buffalo will move down to the No. 9 seed. However, if Houston beats Tennessee while the Bills lose, Buffalo will slip to No. 11.
Can the Bills Still Win the AFC East?
Entering Week 15, the AFC East remains in play for the Bills, and their chances significantly improved when the Dolphins shockingly lost to the Titans in Week 14. While FPI gave Buffalo just a 3.8% chance of winning the division entering Week 15, its odds are now up to roughly 27% heading into Week 15.
The Bills are two games behind Miami with four weeks to play. However, they beat the Dolphins in Week 4, giving them an edge in a potential tiebreaker situation.
MORE: AFC No. 1 Seed Playoff Scenarios
Buffalo and Miami will play again in Week 18, when the Bills can only hope they’re still alive in the AFC East. If the Bills are one game behind the Dolphins entering Week 18, they can pass Miami with a win, thanks to the NFL’s tiebreakers.
The Dolphins still have challenging games against the Cowboys and Baltimore Ravens, so they could drop one or more contests before meeting Buffalo in the regular-season finale.
The earliest that the Bills could take the AFC East lead is Week 17, but that would require Buffalo going 3-0 and Miami going 0-3 over the next three weeks. Even then, the Dolphins would still win the division with a Week 19 victory against the Bills.
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