The Buffalo Bills‘ outlook for the game of the week looks to get a feel for whether this is a WR Gabe Davis fantasy football week or not, while the Miami Dolphins‘ fantasy preview details their run game.
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
- Spread: Bills -3
- Total: 50.5
- Bills implied points: 26.8
- Dolphins implied points: 23.8
Quarterbacks
Josh Allen: Allen overcame a handful of drops last week thanks to his fifth straight game with a rushing TD (only one game without a rushing score in his past 10).
He has run for multiple touchdowns in three of the five games during his recent rushing spike and has accounted for multiple scores in some fashion in every matchup since the embarrassing Week 1 loss to the Jets.
Week 4 meeting: QB1
There’s no decision to be made here. Allen isn’t a perfect real life QB, but he’s the prototype when it comes to what fantasy managers want.
Tua Tagovailoa: The Tagovailoa season has been an interesting one. On one hand, he’s had a massive hand in orchestrating Tyreek Hill’s play for 2k. On the other, he really hasn’t done enough as a pocket passer to be a strong fantasy option.
Week 4 meeting: QB18
Tagovailoa has not been a top-15 QB in four straight games, and he completed a season low 57.9% of his passes last week in Baltimore. Yes, the Ravens own arguably the best defense in the league, but still.
The Bills aren’t that good, but they’re certainly getting better with time and allow the sixth-fewest yards per pass attempt.
If you’ve read this article all season long, thank you! You’re also aware that I simply cannot pass up quirky stats when they come to light …
- Average finish vs. the AFC West this season: QB8
- Average finish vs. the rest of the NFL: QB17
In a different week where all of the elite fantasy QBs are being used as normal, Tagovailoa would be at risk of falling outside of my top 12 in this matchup. That, however, is not the case, and with this total being what it is, even a Tagovailoa critic can’t drop him outside of the top 10.
Running Backs
James Cook: I’m more tempted to buy into Cook’s three straight finishes inside the top 20 than I am his recent struggles that have landed him outside of the top 40 in consecutive games.
Cook was given 19 opportunities (carries + targets) last week against the Patriots, usage that I’m happy to bet on in this spot. He doesn’t have a touch gaining more than 10 yards in either of these two poor weeks — that’s not something that is likely to continue.
I feel good about Cook repeating his Week 4 numbers from the first meeting (RB13: 13 touches for 77 yards and a touchdown) at the very least and wouldn’t be surprised if he far surpasses that stat line on Sunday night.
Raheem Mostert: A variety of lower body injuries kept Mostert out of the Week 17 loss in Baltimore, but he was able to participate in a limited capacity heading into the weekend. That has me believing that the Dolphins were taking a cautious approach with their single-season TD record holder, knowing that this game could determine everything. That said, you need to stay on top of this situation as both Mostert and De’Von Achane did not practice on Wednesday.
Mostert hasn’t finished worse than RB22 in a game since Week 7, form that I am more than willing to weigh much heavier than his Week 4 struggles in the first meeting with the Bills (nine yards on seven carries — RB46).
Keep an eye on his official status, but I’m comfortable in assuming that Mostert plays. Thus, I’m willing to lock him into lineups until given a reason to pivot.
De’Von Achane: It goes without saying that role impacts value, but I’m going to go ahead and say it anyway.
- Average finish when getting 10+ carries: RB5
- Average finish otherwise (in qualified games): RB28
MORE: FREE Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer
Achane has proven plenty capable of producing splash plays, though there’s no denying that the more bites at the apple he gets, the better his chances of giving you the production you’re looking for.
He’s pretty clearly behind a healthy Mostert for me, and given that I’m assuming that is what we have, Achane’s touch projection is underwhelming. That said, the scoring environment of this game and his explosive skill set are enough to land him inside my top 20 at the position this week.
Wide Receivers
Stefon Diggs: The absence of Xavien Howard this week could have a trickle-down effect when it comes to how Diggs is defended this week, especially after he lit them up in the early-season matchup (WR2 overall in Week 4).
Every season, “league winners” emerge and make for great stories. Hell, I’ll probably end up writing an article on such players at some point over the next month. But what about the league losers?
After four straight games with 6+ catches and 100+ yards early this season, Diggs was in the WR1 overall conversation. Things have changed.
In four games last month, per the Week 18 Cheat Sheet, Diggs totaled 17 catches (54.8% catch rate) for 127 yards. No touchdowns. No 20-yard catches. He’s been the worst case of unproduction — the type you feel obligated to play because of draft capital spent and early-season returns.
I say all of that, and yet, I’m still ranking him as a starter. Maybe I’m part of the problem, but with 7+ targets in five of his past six games, the path to production is there in the most important game of the weekend.
Am I confident in Diggs? Nope. Are you likely playing in a game of consequence this week if you have Diggs? Probably not. But the volume is intriguing enough in a difficult week to find stability to have me interested.
No, not interested. Hopeful. I’m more hopeful than interested.
Gabe Davis: The first meeting with the Dolphins came in the middle of the early-season Davis heater, and he was able to make the most of his three targets (WR17).
Safe to say, we’re no longer in the midst of a Davis heater. With no more than 21 receiving yards in six of 10 games since that early-season scoring streak stopped, Davis continues to be the most bust/boom in our sport.
And yes, I said “bust/boom” intentionally — those bust games have been so poor that the terminology deserves to be flipped.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
In theory, this Dolphins matchup isn’t a favorable one. Miami leads the league in pressure rate despite ranking 28th in blitz rate, a defensive profile that allows them to sit back in coverage while also not allowing opposing QBs to have time to test them down the field.
Davis falls outside of my top 30 in this skeleton week, even while playing in the most important game of the regular-season finale.
Tyreek Hill: A bad drop last week set the stage for Hill to underachieve (12 targets netted “just” 10.6 fantasy points). That was a brutal result, given the near-flawless season he has put together this season.
“Near” flawless. That first meeting with the Bills was his worst finish of the season (WR37: 58 yards on five targets), but it came in a 28-point loss where the Dolphins divided the targets evenly (five players had 5-6 targets).
Don’t sweat it. You’re better than that. If you’re considering benching Hill with Miami’s postseason seed on the line, you’re fantasy-ing wrong. Play Hill and enjoy the game!
Jaylen Waddle: A high ankle sprain sidelined Waddle last week. There is hope that he returns this week, but with Miami already locked into the playoffs, it’s not crazy to think that they would sit him again in this spot with the belief that they can win against anyone when at full strength. Coach McDaniel refused to rule him out on Wednesday, so at the very least, there’s hope for those looking to have Waddle at their disposal.
Week 4 meeting: WR50
That said, I’d guess that Miami chases the division title and attempts to get Waddle back on the field. If that’s the case, I’m playing him.
He was targeted at least eight times in five straight games prior to suffering the injury in Week 16, a usage rate for an explosive talent that I’m happy to invest in.
Tight Ends
Dalton Kincaid: A 51-yard grab against the Patriots gave Kincaid his first productive game since mid-November. It was a good thing for that catch as his other six targets resulted in just 36 yards.
Kincaid’s season-long stat line looks strong, as he set the Bills’ franchise record for receptions by a rookie and has shown flashes of being the future of the position in this offense.
MORE: Fantasy News Tracker
That said, his struggles since Dawson Knox’s return (28 yards in total during Knox’s first three games back) are a major red flag for 2024.
I still believe in the pedigree and this offense as a whole. Kincaid is a fringe TE1 this week and currently sits atop my third tier at the position for 2024. Starting him this week is more of a bet on raw talent than anything we’ve seen in terms of role consistency of late.
Trending Start/Sit Searches
Did you know that we have a Start/Sit Optimizer here at Pro Football Network? It’s completely free to use, and it allows you to enter up to six players to find the best option to plug into your starting lineup.
It also allows us to see the most popular trending searches. We’ve jotted some of them down here to help provide some clarity.
Should You Start Stefon Diggs or Garrett Wilson?
It’s tough, but give me Diggs over New York Jets WR Garrett Wilson. The volume has been better than his production, and with his team fighting for a division title, the Bills pass catcher remains the percentage play.
Don’t mistake that to mean he is bulletproof. The lack of production over the past two months has been brutal, and his role simply isn’t what it was early in the season. That said, he is still the player in this decision with the better QB play and the edge in game importance. Hold your nose and hope for the best.
Should You Start James Cook or Breece Hall?
I think New York Jets RB Breece Hall is the better talent, but with Buffalo fighting for their postseason life and a variety of Dolphin injuries, Cook is my play in Week 18.
Buffalo’s lead back has touched the ball 17+ times in three straight games (and in five of his past six). This is usage that I am expecting to continue and get him to the finish line in style.
Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!
