The Buffalo Bills‘ fantasy preview takes a look at the ups and downs of Gabe Davis, while the Kansas City Chiefs‘ outlook details the fantasy football rise of Rashee Rice.
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
- Spread: Chiefs -2.5
- Total: 47.5
- Bills implied points: 22.5
- Chiefs implied points: 25
Quarterbacks
Josh Allen: At various points this season, words like “struggling” and “prohibitive” have been tossed into Allen’s evaluation. Let’s relax.
From a football standpoint, Allen hasn’t been perfect, but the mindset that has resulted in the mistakes is the same mindset that puts him on the short list of signal callers that can be the reason their team wins a Super Bowl.
MORE: Fantasy News Tracker
As for fantasy, I don’t care about the mistakes. Not even a little bit. In fact, the argument could be made that the mistakes result in Buffalo being forced into an even more aggressive approach and thus end up as a net fantasy positive!
This season, Allen has more top-two finishes at the position (four) than he does weeks as QB10 or worse (three). He’s been a top-five fantasy QB in five of his past six starts. He lit these Chiefs up for 329 passing yards (32 rushing) and three scores when these teams met in Week 6 last season.
The Kansas City defense is stronger this year than in years past — still zero concerns on my end about the value of Allen in our game. Kansas City has somewhat of a shortened week (played on Sunday night in Lambeau), while Buffalo had their bye week to prepare for a game that could well determine the fate of their season.
The Bills are going to bet big on Allen this week, and I have no issue in doing the same across all fantasy formats.
Patrick Mahomes: Remember when he lit up the Chargers for 424 yards and four scores back in Week 7? Since then, Mahomes has one finish better than QB12, and his average finish is QB17.
In good news, there’s not a world in which you’re benching the reigning MVP. The lack of depth at the QB position right now makes that a lock, and it saves you from yourself.
Most players deal with ups and downs throughout the course of a season. I have no real concerns about Mahomes, and if he isn’t going to garner a ton of ownership in DFS, it wouldn’t shock me if he won someone $1 million this weekend.
Running Backs
James Cook: With over eight fantasy points as a pass catcher in consecutive games, Cook’s versatility has developed into a real weapon. He hasn’t been efficient on the ground outside of a big game against the Broncos, but an 84.6% catch rate with a clear lead role is plenty to earn him a top-20 ranking on a consistent basis.
The Chiefs’ defense has impressed in many respects this season, but they do cough up the fifth-most yards per carry, and the Bills figure to be interested in controlling tempo to take pressure off of their struggling defense.
I have Cook flirting with RB1 status, higher than most in the industry. Let James Cook!
Isiah Pacheco: The angriest runner on planet earth has been a top-10 running back in consecutive weeks — he posted just one top-10 performance through 11 weeks. But he has been ruled OUT for Week 14 with a shoulder injury that cropped up mid-week.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire: Kansas City RBs ran for just 43 yards on 13 carries in the Week 6 meeting with Buffalo last season, but this is a different matchup. And with Mahomes struggling by his standards, the run game is as important in this offense as ever.
The Bills allow the fourth-most yards per carry this season and coughed up 120 yards on 18 carries to Eagles RBs in Week 12 prior to the bye. Pacheco has accounted for 76.5% of the Chiefs’ carries by running backs this season, putting CEH in a spot to fill a viable role. He’s obviously not ranked where Pacheco was entering this week, but he does check in as a top 30 back for me and is good Flex option for managers lacking depth.
Wide Receivers
Stefon Diggs: The Chiefs allow the fifth-fewest yards per pass attempt this season, with L’Jarius Sneed driving much of that success by limiting perimeter options. Could they continue Diggs’ decline in production after a hot start to the season?
Buffalo’s top receiver has been a top-10 producer at the position just once since Week 5, and after producing 100+ yards in four straight games from Weeks 3-6, Diggs is averaging just 58.2 yards.
I don’t mind the idea of dragging Diggs’ ranking down a touch, but at worst, he’s a fringe top-10 receiver. You’re plugging him into all starting lineups when it comes to season-long leagues, but I would look elsewhere in terms of top DFS options.
Gabe Davis: With Kansas City owning the sixth-highest blitz rate in the league, Davis has the potential to be left in single coverage and for it not to be Sneed.
It doesn’t take many looks; it just takes the right opportunity, and there’s a path for Davis to get there. That said, a few missed chances, and Davis is looking at another dud. Welcome to the Gabe Davis Experience:
- Week 7 at NE: WR88
- Week 8 vs. TB: WR10
- Week 9 at CIN: WR135
- Week 10 vs. DEN: WR34
- Week 11 vs. NYJ: WR136
- Week 12 at PHI: WR7
Personally, I’m benching Davis for either of Lamar Jackson’s top receivers or Josh Downs. But I’m not going to sit here and lie to you. Davis is my WR35, and I might be off by 25 spots. But the fact that I can’t tell you what direction I’m going to be off on tells you all you need to know.
Khalil Shakir: Is it just me, or are we being sold that he is something of value in fantasy across the industry? Two top-30 finishes this season and three top-50s?
Shakir’s good for a WR3 in Buffalo, but that doesn’t make him viable in our circles. I don’t mind rostering him as depth, but I’m not interested in playing him against this Chiefs defense with only two teams on a bye.
Rashee Rice: This man is the real deal. It’s just that simple. Rice is a 95th-percentile receiver in terms of YAC, and he gets a matchup against a defense that is routinely attacked via the short pass (league-low 6.3 opponent aDOT, 6% lower than any other defense in the league).
Last week, Kansas City drew up a play to get Rice into the end zone, but he was tackled on the 1-yard line. If he punches that in, the Rice train has more members on it.
In Week 6 last season, in this matchup, JuJu Smith-Schuster went off for 113 yards and a score. We’ve now got a better receiver filling that role and a weaker Buffalo defense on the other side.
You do the math. Rice is a top-20 play for me.
Tight Ends
Dalton Kincaid: The rookie has posted a route participation north of 75% in each of his past five games, putting him in a position to thrive in a pass-heavy offense.
I understand that he underwhelmed before the bye with just 38 yards against the Eagles, but that came on the heels of five straight usable performances. I could not be less worried.
MORE: Where Do Dalton Kincaid and Travis Kelce Land in TE Dynasty Rankings?
I still have Kincaid labeled as the clear-cut second option in this passing game, a role that I think will be incredibly valuable with games against Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, and Justin Herbert all on deck.
You’re starting Kincaid, and you’re gaining on the majority of your league at the position in the process.
Travis Kelce: With eight top-six finishes at the position, Kelce continues to get it done for you, even if not in the overwhelmingly dominant fashion that we’ve become accustomed to. His catch rate is up more than seven percentage points from last season.
With the Chiefs in a dogfight for seeding in the loaded AFC, it wouldn’t shock me at all to see his involvement spike over the final month of the fantasy season.
When these two teams met last season, Kelce garnered 31.3% of the targets and cleared 100 yards. I’m looking for a similar level of success this week as KC looks to bounce back from the Sunday Night Football loss against a Bills defense that is below average at every level.
Should You Start DeVonta Smith or Rashee Rice?
As much as I love Rice, DeVonta Smith is ranked a tick higher for me this week, thanks to the recent target volume (27 over his past three games). I have both locked into lineups in all formats, but I do think the usage trends give Smith a slightly higher ceiling in what should be a fun game!
Should You Start Brandin Cooks or Gabe Davis?
This is Brandin Cooks, and it’s not close. I understand that Davis has had some big performances against the Chiefs in the past, but the fact of the matter is that his ceiling is too low to play him over a receiver in Cooks, who is on the rise as part of an offense that is clicking on all cylinders.
Cooks is locked in as a WR2 for me, while Davis is on the outside looking in at Flex value.
Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!