The Buffalo Bills’ fantasy football preview details the value of Gabe Davis moving forward while the Cincinnati Bengals‘ fantasy outlook revolves around their quarterback and whether this offense should once again be labeled as elite.
Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals
- Spread: Bengals -2.5
- Total: 48.5
- Bills implied points: 23
- Bengals implied points: 25.5
Quarterbacks
Josh Allen: With a rushing touchdown in five of his past six games, Allen is picking his spots as effectively as ever. By completing a career-best 71.7% of his passes (up from 63.3% last season), the Buffalo signal-caller’s fantasy floor is nothing short of elite.
He guided 61.5% of his passes in the direction of WRs Gabe Davis or Stefon Diggs in the win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, demonstrating his ability to get his top play-makers involved. This offense has yet to really hit its stride, and yet, Allen is still a high-level fantasy option.
Joe Burrow: Is Burrow back? Are the Bengals back? Does the AFC need to be put on notice?
After a 28 of 32 effort in San Francisco for 283 yards and three scores against the 49ers last week, I’m not saying Joe Cool and the boys aren’t back. In the convincing win, over 56% of his passes went to WRs Ja’Marr Chase or Tee Higgins, reminding us of just how lethal this trio can be when everyone is right.
Now, it should be noted that they were able to succeed last week after their bye. That allowed them to scheme up plays and get their star players as close to full strength as they’ve been this season. How their bodies will react to four quarters of physical football is something we won’t know until game day, but there’s no case to be made for benching Burrow this week.
He’s firmly atop my third tier of QBs this week, and that checks him at QB6 for me this week in what should be a great matchup.
Running Backs
James Cook: Without much touchdown equity, Cook’s ceiling isn’t all that appealing, and with only one game of more than 15 carries this season, his floor is a bit of a concern.
MORE: Should I Trade James Cook in Fantasy Football Right Now?
The running back’s role in the passing game determines his weekly rank, and this is a tough spot. Teams have been targeting the Bengals’ secondary more down the field than anything, and that means a third underwhelming week as a pass catcher in four games is certainly a possibility this weekend.
I’m not benching Cook due to his role as the lead back in an elite offense, but he’s slipping down my ranks and is a middling RB2 for me against Cincinnati.
Latavius Murray: The veteran only played one-third of the snaps on Thursday night and can be dropped if you’re in a roster crunch with bye weeks back. Murray has recorded more than six touches just twice this season and hasn’t scored since Week 3.
I’m not burning a roster spot on a clear secondary back in a pass-happy offense with a goal-line vulture starting under center.
Joe Mixon: He ran for a season-high 87 yards against the 49ers last week and scored his only touchdown of October to ice the game. I’ve been encouraged by the floor he creates weekly by way of the passing game (3+ catches in five of seven games), a skill he has continued to develop with time.
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Mixon was able to retain value during the down days for this offense early on and could use the team’s overall health as a way to work his way back inside my top 10. He averaged 5.4 yards per carry on Sunday (first seven weeks: 3.8 yards per carry), and if that is here to stay, along with increased scoring equity as a result of this offense trending up, you should have zero concerns about locking him in weekly.
I have him ranked as a fringe RB1 – right about where I had him back in August. Mixon’s best days should be ahead of him, and that makes him an asset you can bank on in a big way as you chase fantasy glory.
Wide Receivers
Stefon Diggs: It’s now four straight games with at least 11 targets for Diggs, and he is pacing for 136 grabs this season. The receiver hasn’t averaged more than 10 yards per catch in three straight games, so if you’re going to nitpick, there’s that.
Diggs is on my shortlist for fantasy MVP. Players are averaging more points per game, but his weekly floor holds a lot of weight when trying to determine the most impactful fantasy asset.
Gabe Davis: Was last week’s win over the Bucs a career turning point for Davis? That might be a little dramatic, but he pulled in nine of 12 targets, giving us a taste of the volume we have only dreamt of in the past.
The raw numbers are encouraging, but it was the path to earning them that has me very interested. During Weeks 1-7, Davis established an aDOT of 14.97 yards, while last week, per the Week 9 Cheat Sheet, he saw an aDOT of just 6.67 yards.
We know Davis has elite upside on a per-target basis, and that’s not going to change. However, if this is a usage change, he could become a weekly lineup lock. The athletic tools aren’t going anywhere, and a lower aDOT role can elevate the floor of a player who is always on the field. Davis was sixth in routes run last season and ran a route on 45 of 46 Week 8 dropbacks.
Buffalo runs through the gauntlet in terms of opponents from Weeks 11-17 — matchups that are going to require Davis’ route tree to be flexible if he is going to hold value to us. Managers with Davis need to keep an eye on the type of routes he is running, but Week 8 was a massive step in the right direction.
I’m cautiously optimistic in the growth we saw last week, and that has me ranking Davis as a strong Flex play.
Ja’Marr Chase: With Tee Higgins banged up and/or struggling through seven weeks, Chase owned a 32.9% target and had cleared 70 receiving yards in four straight games. How would his production be impacted off of the bye with Higgins (theoretically) healthy?
It wasn’t. He posted his third 100-yard game of the season and saw 37.5% of Burrow’s targets. Chase should be considered nothing short of a top-five receiver moving forward, with his name being on the short list of receivers who can lead the position in fantasy points in any given week.
Tee Higgins: Five catches for 69 yards was easily Higgins’ second-best performance of the season, and there was a lot to like, even if the overall fantasy production was still under what you drafted him for.
First, he caught 83.3% of his targets, a serious step up from the 38.9% rate he posted through seven weeks. Obviously, a catch percentage somewhere in the middle of those is what we can project, but his being on the same page as Burrow for the entirety of a professional football game is certainly a step in the right direction.
I have him ranked back-to-back with Gabe Davis this week toward the bottom half of my WR2 tier for Week 9. I’m comfortable in starting him against a banged-up Bills defense in a potential shootout, but with the understanding that there is some risk to take into consideration.
Tight Ends
Dalton Kincaid: Dawson Knox was placed on IR ahead of Week 8’s win, and Kincaid wasted zero time in flashing the upside that made him a first-round pick in April. For the season, the rookie has caught 30 of 34 targets, a level of efficiency that makes him a must-start if he is going to see the 7-8 targets that he has seen over the past two weeks.
The volume is one thing; the volume in scoring situations is another. Buffalo schemed up a shovel pass to him inside the 5-yard line and made him the first read a few plays later in tight.
Oh, and then there was the Allen rollout to the right, where Kincaid ran with him, and the duo connected on a 22-yard score. Kincaid isn’t yet in the third tier of the position, but he is comfortably in tier four. That is a fantasy starter most weeks.
Congratulations — you’ve survived the Hunger Games-like situation that is the TE streaming wars. As a reward, you will, you’ll have one fewer headache this week and will sleep fine on Tuesday night without having to pour in mental energy to the free agent pool.
Should You Start Zay Flowers or Gabe Davis?
Flowers has yet to cash in on his potential in this strong offense and we got a glimpse of his floor last week in Arizona (19 yards). Davis’ floor is also scary, but we saw his aDOT regress in a massive way last week, a floor elevator for a receiver in who always has access to an elite ceiling.
MORE: PFN Consensus Rankings
When it comes to the projected range of outcomes, Flowers owns the edge, but when you factor in this specific matchup and route growth from Davis, he ranks as a strong WR2 for me this week while Flowers is more on the lower end of that tier.
Should You Start Joe Burrow or Tua Tagovailoa?
Are the Bengals back? It certainly looked like it last week, and that’s enough for me to side with Burrow over Tagovailoa this week. While both QBs are projected to take part in shootouts, the Dolphins face a better (and healthier) defense. They could also be at a possession disadvantage given that the Chiefs rank sixth in average time of possession.
Both QBs are locked into my top 10 without question, so there’s not a bad option. As good as Miami as a whole has been, Tagovailoa’s floor is worrisome (three finishes outside of the top 15 at the position). I’ll roll the dice here and bank on what we saw from Burrow last week carrying over to this primetime game.
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