The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will face the Washington Commanders on Wild Card Weekend. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding RB Bucky Irving.
Is Bucky Irving Playing vs. the Commanders?
Irving does not have an injury designation heading into the game this weekend. Barring any setbacks, he is on track to play vs. the Commanders.
We’ll continue to monitor the Buccaneers’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Should You Start or Sit Bucky Irving on Wild Card Weekend?
You’ve seen the highlights and heard the hype surrounding Bucky Irving. The Buccaneers were front-and-center last week in earning their playoff bid. There has been no shortage of coverage, yet it’s possible you’re not high enough on their rookie RB.
Soppe’s Wild Card RB rankings:
- Saquon Barkley
- Bucky Irving
- Derrick Henry
Yes, he’s been that good. If you extend his last seven healthy games over a 17-game schedule, we are talking about a running back with 1,700 rushing yards, 12 rushing touchdowns, 56 receptions, and 493 receiving yards. That’s a stat line that only Edgerrin James (2000) and LaDaininian Tomlinson (2006) have ever achieved for a season.
Irving is taking the league by storm and is playing in the game with the highest total of the week. This season, the Commanders own the second-worst red-zone defense among teams still playing, struggles fueled by the lowest success rate against the run of this group.
Consider this: Washington allowed 49.6% more yards per RB carry before contact than the league average this season (only the Panthers were worse). Rachaad White is a name you know, but he’s not currently a threat to take much usage away from Irving. There’s nothing standing in the rookie’s way of continuing his run of dominance, something his price point doesn’t reflect ($1,200 cheaper than Derrick Henry on DraftKings).
His scrimmage yardage prop opened at 108.5 yards, and I’m not sure it’s nearly high enough. I’ve locked in an over on that number and, in a hedge of sorts, I bet he and Brian Robinson Jr. combine for over 134.5 rushing yards, thinking that the team playing with a lead has plenty of success on the ground.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Wild Card Weekend Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Bucky Irving’s Fantasy Points Projection on Wild Card Weekend
As of Sunday, Irving is projected to score 23 fantasy points in PPR formats. This includes 27.8 rushing attempts for 125.2 yards and 0.7 touchdowns. It also includes 1.9 receptions for 38 yards and 0.1 touchdowns.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insight on the Commanders' Defense
The Washington Commanders were a below-average defense for most of the season, which their final ranking reflects. Ultimately, Washington's performance was largely fairly consistent based on their level of competition.
The Commanders had five weekly top-10 finishes this season. Those performances have come against the Browns, Panthers, Bears, the Titans, and the Kenny Pickett-led Eagles. Setting Philadelphia aside, the other four all rank in the bottom 10 of PFN's Offense+ metric.
Obviously, that's not the caliber of defense Washington will see in the playoffs, starting with the Buccaneers. Washington continues to miss Marshon Lattimore, who has played only two games since being traded to the team before Week 10. For the season, the Commanders ranked 24th in defensive EPA per dropback, the third-lowest among the 14 playoff teams.
Dan Quinn's unit hasn't performed to the level that his Dallas Cowboys defenses did from 2021-23, but that's not the fairest comparison, given that this was supposed to be the early stages of a rebuild. The Commanders have at least shown the ability to overwhelm one-dimensional offenses, which is more than they could say in recent seasons.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.
Bucky Irving’s Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 8:30 AM ET on Sunday, January 12. If you're in a Superflex league, make sure you check out our Wild Card Superflex Rankings.
Wild Card RB PPR Rankings
1) Saquon Barkley | PHI (vs. GB)
2) Bucky Irving | TB (vs. WAS)
3) Derrick Henry | BAL (vs. PIT)
4) Kyren Williams | LAR (vs. MIN)
5) Josh Jacobs | GB (at PHI)
6) Joe Mixon | HOU (vs. LAC)
7) Aaron Jones | MIN (at LAR)
8) J.K. Dobbins | LAC (at HOU)
9) Brian Robinson Jr. | WAS (at TB)
10) Jaylen Warren | PIT (at BAL)
11) Jaleel McLaughlin | DEN (at BUF)
12) Najee Harris | PIT (at BAL)
13) Cam Akers | MIN (at LAR)
14) Justice Hill | BAL (vs. PIT)
15) Javonte Williams | DEN (at BUF)
16) Austin Ekeler | WAS (at TB)
17) Gus Edwards | LAC (at HOU)
18) Kenneth Gainwell | PHI (vs. GB)
19) Emanuel Wilson | GB (at PHI)
20) Rachaad White | TB (vs. WAS)
21) James Cook | BUF (vs. DEN)
22) Ray Davis | BUF (vs. DEN)
23) Audric Estimé | DEN (at BUF)
24) Ty Johnson | BUF (vs. DEN)
25) Kimani Vidal | LAC (at HOU)
26) Dameon Pierce | HOU (vs. LAC)
27) Dare Ogunbowale | HOU (vs. LAC)
28) Cordarrelle Patterson | PIT (at BAL)
29) Jeremy McNichols | WAS (at TB)
30) Chris Brooks | GB (at PHI)
31) Will Shipley | PHI (vs. GB)
32) Sean Tucker | TB (vs. WAS)
33) Hassan Haskins | LAC (at HOU)
34) Ronnie Rivers | LAR (vs. MIN)
35) Keaton Mitchell | BAL (vs. PIT)
36) Chris Rodriguez Jr. | WAS (at TB)
37) C.J. Ham | MIN (at LAR)
38) Michael Burton | DEN (at BUF)
39) Rasheen Ali | BAL (vs. PIT)
40) Patrick Ricard | BAL (vs. PIT)
41) Ty Chandler | MIN (at LAR)
42) Tyrion Davis-Price | PHI (vs. GB)
43) Reggie Gilliam | BUF (vs. DEN)
44) Tyler Badie | DEN (at BUF)
45) Ellis Merriweather | GB (at PHI)
46) Michael Wiley | WAS (at TB)
47) Cody Schrader | LAR (vs. MIN)
48) Blake Watson | DEN (at BUF)
49) J.J. Taylor | HOU (vs. LAC)
50) Aaron Shampklin | PIT (at BAL)
51) Jaret Patterson | LAC (at HOU)
52) Khari Blasingame | CHI ()
53) Jonathan Ward | PIT (at BAL)
54) Frank Gore Jr. | BUF (vs. DEN)
Commanders at Buccaneers Trends and Insights
Washington Commanders
Team: In Year 1 of the Jayden Daniels era, the Commanders matched their win total from the two seasons prior (12) and posted their best point differential since the Super Bowl champion 1991 team.
QB: Daniels has completed 27 of 36 passes (75%) against the blitz during the current five-game win streak, a drastic improvement from his 49.1% rate over the previous five games.
Offense: The Commanders have converted eight of their last nine fourth-down attempts (four for four over the past two weeks).
Defense: Washington has held the opposition out of the end zone on at least half of their red zone drives in four of their past five games (one TD on six such drives on Sunday against Dallas).
Fantasy: Terry McLaurin caught 13 touchdown passes this season, more than his best two seasons combined prior.
Betting: The Commanders have failed to cover three straight road games after opening the season 3-1-1 ATS on the road.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Team: The Bucs haven’t lost a game in regulation by more than three points since October.
QB: In 2021, Baker Mayfield completed 41.8% of his passes when under duress. His rate ticked up to 45.1% in 2022, to 49% in 2023, and up to 58% this season.
Offense: In Weeks 9-14, the Bucs picked up just 38.3% of their third downs. In the four weeks to close the regular season, that rate spiked to 61.4%.
Defense: Just three times through 15 weeks did Tampa Bay fail to force a turnover – they enter the postseason having failed to do so in each of their past three.
Fantasy: Mayfield has thrown multiple touchdown passes in five straight games, his second such streak this season.
Betting: Tampa Bay went 5-4 ATS at home this season after going 5-11-1 over the previous two seasons in front of their home fans.