If you’re planning to bet on Week 10 NFL player props for Sunday’s fascinating Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Seattle Seahawks matchup in Munich, Germany, then you’ve come to the right place.
We’ve analyzed the game’s highest-probability scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated and which could fall short of expectations. All prop bets are based on DraftKings Sportsbook, BetMGM, or FanDuel Sportsbook, where you can get a no-sweat first bet up to $1,000.
Top Buccaneers vs. Seahawks Player Props To Target
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics culled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Tom Brady Player Props
What if I’d told you two months ago that at the season’s midpoint, Tom Brady would be leading the league in pass attempts and completions for the second straight season . . . while on pace for only 19 touchdown passes for the 4-5 Bucs?
This is the key heading into one of the most exciting overseas NFL games in history. Brady has thrown more than one TD pass merely once this year. Last year, he did it 12 times.
Behind a weaker offensive line and a far less potent backfield that’s last in the league with 3.0 yards per carry, Brady has looked more human than ever in what might be his farewell campaign. He’s facing an inspired, ascending opponent that’s slightly more beatable on the ground.
It would take a lot of courage to bet big on Brady. Sure, a breakout always seems imminent with him. Yet, he can’t keep throwing like he did last weekend (58 attempts).
Seattle’s yielding 4.8 yards per carry — relatively high by NFL standards. I believe Tampa Bay will try desperately to establish the run, lowering Brady’s yardage ceiling.
- Passing yards under 280.5
(-115) — DraftKings - Passing TDs under 1.5
(+110) — DraftKings - Interceptions under 0.5
(-150) — FanDuel
Rachaad White Player Props
So will Leonard Fournette thrive in what I believe will be a greater commitment to the ground game? Perhaps. But rookie Rachaad White has looked better, and there’s a good chance he’ll earn 8+ carries while pushing for a timeshare role.
As I’ve shared with readers many times since the summer, if Fournette continues struggling, it would mark the fourth-straight time (dating back to college) that he’s regressed significantly and/or dealt with serious injuries the season after compiling 240+ touches.
In fairness, both he and White have struggled — in part — because of Tampa Bay’s offensive line. Fournette’s 48th in the league in yards before contact (1.8). White is outside the top 50 at 1.5.
MORE: Top 10 Anytime Scorer Predictions Week 10
However, after a slow start to his NFL career, White has picked things up a bit, collecting 70 yards on 18 carries (3.9 yards per attempt) in his last three contests. During this same stretch, Fournette has an abysmal 62 yards on 26 carries (2.4 yards per attempt).
I’m betting on White to rack up 40+ yards on the ground today, setting him up as the potential lead back by December.
- Rushing yards over 25.5
(-120) — DraftKings
Geno Smith Player Props
This is a game where legends are made . . . and vanquished. Brady is the Mount Rushmore of opponents. Geno Smith is a longtime journeyman backup who played well enough filling in for an injured Russell Wilson last season to earn a long look this summer on a team in transition. Then Drew Lock’s injury made head coach Pete Carroll’s decision even easier.
There might be a dozen or more Geno Smiths in this league, poised to break out if given the opportunity — often cast aside years ago when they didn’t seem to have what it takes.
Smith is a certifiable MVP candidate. He leads the NFL in completion percentage and is No. 4 in adjusted quarterback rating (QBR). He has 50% more TD passes than Brady despite attempting 29% fewer passes.
I’m envisioning one of two scenarios. Either Smith will flop on the big stage (unlikely), or he’ll thrive against a hit-or-miss defense missing key EDGE rusher Shaq Barrett. I believe the latter is more likely, although Smith’s passing-yards prop seems too high. But 30+ rushing yards and three total TDs seem likely against a franchise that appears to have lost its MoJo.
- Rushing yards over 22.5
(-110) — DraftKings - Passing yards under 244.5
(-115) — DraftKings - Passing touchdowns over 1.5
(EVEN) — DraftKings - Interceptions under 0.5
(-120) — DraftKings