If you’re making Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Seattle Seahawks DFS picks on DraftKings for Sunday’s Week 10 NFL matchup in Munich, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
Buccaneers Considerations
The Buccaneers have an “everything” problem. Tom Brady leads the league in pass attempts and completions, but you wouldn’t know it based on his relatively muted production, including only 10 TDs in nine games.
Leonard Fournette anchors a backfield averaging only 3.0 yards per carry — the worst mark in the NFL. And I mean “anchors” literally. Fournette’s been a drag on this offense. Ever since his strong opener to the season in Week 1, the nearly 28-year-old has 278 rushing yards on 100 carries (2.8 yards per carry).
While Rachaad White hasn’t been much better, the rookie’s been good enough to make us wonder if either RB is safe in a DFS lineup. While Fournette still has plenty of PPR value, is this the week White gets more run? Given their price points, it might be risky to invest in either one.
And then there’s the receiving corps that, on paper, should be better. But Russell Gage can’t stay healthy, Julio Jones is showing his age, and Chris Godwin might still be showing the effects of last year’s season-ending ACL/MCL tear. The dependable Mike Evans leads the receiving corps in targets, receptions, yards, and TDs. He might be the only receiver we can trust.
But what about Cade Otton? Love the rookie. Have pushed him since the summer as a mid-season streamer. He caught on earlier than expected when Cameron Brate went on the shelf. However, his DFS pricing might be more than we want to pay for a largely TD-dependent tight end.
Seahawks Considerations
Geno Smith, MVP candidate? Honestly, I never saw it coming. Over the summer, he and Drew Lock were battling for the starting role. Lock got hurt, and whether or not Smith would have earned the job regardless, the rest is history.
As we examine the DFS possibilities, Smith and rookie Kenneth Walker III take center stage. Both have strong 20+ point potential against a Bucs defense that’s both talented and vulnerable. Walker’s seven TDs in five games cannot be ignored.
MORE: Buccaneers vs. Seahawks DFS for FanDuel
While I don’t generally chase touchdowns, as of a few weeks ago, Seattle had one of the league’s worst TD rates inside the red zone. But in the last three weeks, they’ve scored 72.7% of the time inside the red zone — the seventh-best mark during this stretch.
We also know what DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett can do. But we should also consider a slight shift in near-elite reliability. Last season they had a combined nine performances with 20+ DFS points and 17 performances with 12+ points.
This year? They’ve hit 20+ only twice — well behind their 2021 pace. But they do have 11 combined outings with 12+ points. If those trends hold, they’re good bets for “good” or even “very good” numbers. But if we want breakout production, we might need to look elsewhere.
Top DFS Picks for Buccaneers vs. Seahawks
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players.
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Captain: QB Geno Smith, Seahawks ($15,300)
We begin with Smith in our Captain slot. He shined in Week 1 against Denver — the NFL’s stingiest defense against fantasy QBs — keying an impressive run of double-digit scores in seven of nine games. His ceiling is too high to pass up.
Flex: RB Kenneth Walker III, Seahawks ($10,400)
Walker is one of only a handful of unquestioned RB workhorses. Travis Homer and DeeJay Dallas are far off in the rearview mirror (and they are not “closer than they appear”). Even if Walker struggles early against Tampa Bay’s middling run defense, he’ll keep getting the ball. That’s our kind of DFS player.
Flex: WR DK Metcalf, Seahawks ($8,400)
Rolling with the comparable Metcalf and Lockett — in addition to Smith and Walker — would assume a blowout win for Seattle on the ground and through the air. I’m not buying that. So we’ll choose one, and Metcalf is a bit cheaper than Lockett, enabling us to round out this lineup effectively.
Flex: RB Leonard Fournette, Buccaneers ($7,800)
This is when things get dicey, exciting, or both. Remember when I wrote earlier that investing in Fournette or White might be risky? Well, what if we invested in both?
This lineup assumes Brady’s struggles continue. The Bucs would do everything possible to establish the running game, knowing that Brady throwing 45+ times probably isn’t sustainable. Our hope here is that Fournette gets looks near the goal line and continues to be heavily targeted.
Flex: RB Rachaad White, Buccaneers ($5,000)
This is the hedge I referenced above. What if Brady throws only 30 times while White and Fournette split 30-35 touches? It’s not unrealistic. If these two RBs combine for 28+ DFS points, we might secure enough production from our three main Seahawks to compete for first place.
Flex: TE Will Dissly, Seahawks ($3,000)
With $3,000 remaining, we’re going with the TD-friendly Will Dissly. He’s continued to operate as a co-No. 1 TE with Noah Fant and has multiple receptions in eight of nine contests. At this price, he’s worth it.