If you’re planning to make NFL prop bets for this thrilling Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Dallas Cowboys Wild Card matchup on Monday night, you’ve come to the right place.
We’ve analyzed the game’s highest-probability scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated and which could fall short of expectations. All prop bets are based on DraftKings Sportsbook, BetMGM, or FanDuel Sportsbook, where you can get a no-sweat first bet up to $1,000.
Top Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Player Props To Target
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
This morning, I examined all of the times Dallas has faced Tom Brady. Because I like to examine not just stats, but storylines. Because storylines don’t merely bring these games to life; they also help inform strategy — especially when the storylines are compelling.
As some of you know, the Cowboys have never beaten Brady. They’re 0 for 7, including two losses these past two seasons when Brady has helmed the Bucs. Historically, the Dak Prescott-led Cowboys have nearly won — at least, when Prescott hasn’t been knocked out of the game (Week 1 this season).
Dallas has lost more convincingly with “lesser” QBs like Brandon Weeden and Quincy Carter. They also endured the misfortune of playing the eventual 16-0 Patriots in 2007 . . . a game in which Dallas actually led in the third quarter. But five Brady TD passes were too much.
It could be argued that this playoff game — despite being on the road — is Dallas’ best shot at finally defeating the most prolific QB in history. They’re a “strong” 12-5, ranked fourth in points scored and fifth in fewest points against.
Not including their Week 18 collapse against Washington (when keeping their starters healthy was, in hindsight, the most important outcome), when Prescott has started and finished a game, the Cowboys have lost only twice this season — both in overtime.
This is a fundamentally sound and relatively experienced squad that also entered this season as the third youngest.
The Buccaneers, meanwhile, entered the season as the oldest. And it shows. Their injury-ravaged offensive line hasn’t helped. Nor has a running game ranked last in yards per carry. Nor has Brady, whose conceivably, marginally diminished abilities have shone through, despite leading the league in pass attempts for the second straight year — and breaking Matthew Stafford’s record.
Tampa Bay must play some of their best football of the season to hold back the Cowboys. Dallas must look past their sorrowful history against the nearly indomitable Brady — including a painful Week 1 loss that knocked out Prescott for weeks — and play to their potential.
The following prop recommendations assume the Cowboys will jump this hurdle. It won’t be easy. But a roughly 33-27 victory seems realistic.
Tom Brady Player Props
In Brady’s (perhaps?) final game, the all-time great probably won’t be content to throw it less than 40 times. He’s never content to rest on his legacy. His backfield is averaging a league-worst 3.4 yards per carry. For Brady, tonight assuredly is Brady-or-bust.
That doesn’t mean he’ll be successful. But he’ll go down trying if needed.
- Passing yards under 277.5
(-120) — BetMGM - Passing attempts over 42.5
(-102) — FanDuel
Dak Prescott Player Props
As great as Prescott has played, as with all Dallas QBs, his legacy will be defined largely by his ability to lead the Cowboys to playoff victories — and ideally for Cowboys Nation, a Super Bowl.
He’s facing a defense that’s yielded the second-most passing touchdowns while picking off only 10 throws — tied for the seventh fewest in the league. Prescott has everything he needs to throw for 250+ and 2+ scores.
- Passing yards over 241.5
(-114) — FanDuel - Passing touchdowns over 1.5
(-110) — DraftKings
Ezekiel Elliott Player Props
I’m not bullish about Ezekiel Elliott tonight. After a glimmer of excellence against the Giants, Colts, and Texans, he faded down the stretch: a painful 2.7 yards per carry in his final four outings.
Of course, Dallas needs him to eat up yards. But these days, Elliott is more of a grazer, nibbling around the edges rather than bursting through the gaps. He’s a long shot to exceed 40 rushing yards.
- Rushing yards under 50.5
(-114) — FanDuel
Tony Pollard Player Props
One of the X-factors in this contest, Tony Pollard could dominate en route to an impressive Dallas victory. Or he could wilt in what might be his final game for this franchise.
I’m betting on the former. Assuming Elliott can’t get going, Pollard should serve as a valuable safety valve for Prescott.
While the Bucs have been tough against RBs through the air (fourth-fewest RB receiving yards), they regressed late in the season (not including a meaningless Week 18). Pollard is poised to get the job done in the passing game.
- Rushing attempts under 10.5
(-114) — FanDuel - Receptions over 2.5
(-122) — FanDuel - Receiving yards over 20.5
(-122) — FanDuel
Dalton Schultz Player Props
One of my favorite underperforming tight ends. Dalton Schultz possesses the talent and opportunity to serve as the Cowboys’ No. 2 receiver tonight. The Bucs are sub-middling against TEs, including surrendering the fifth-most TD scores. Schultz has strong potential for, at minimum, a 6-50 receiving line.
- Receptions over 3.5
(-166) — FanDuel - Receiving yards over 37.5
(-114) — FanDuel