The Tampa Bay Buccaneers kick off a new season with Baker Mayfield now under center. Meanwhile, the Minnesota Vikings have a new-look backfield with Alexander Mattison now RB1. With so many new elements potentially impacting the fantasy football landscape in this game, which players should you start in your lineup?
Want to see more fantasy players that you should consider starting this week? Make sure to check our PFN’s Consensus Rankings and Fantasy Analyst Kyle Soppe’s Week 1 Cheat Sheet!
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings
- Spread: Vikings -6
- Total: 45.5
- Buccaneers Team Implied Points: 19.75
- Vikings Team Implied Points: 25.75
Quarterbacks
Baker Mayfield: I can’t get close to committing to Mayfield in anything but a two-QB setup, but I do think the hate for this offense has gone a bit too far. Chris Godwin and Mike Evans are great players and combine to see roughly 40% of targets — that alone gives this passing game some potential.
Rachaad White may not be an overwhelming talent, but we have concrete proof that he is proficient as a pass catcher. The Vikings allowed the second most passing yards per game a season ago (265.6) and are a decent runway for a QB who averages more points per completion in his debut start with a team than he does in all other games.
Mayfield doesn’t matter in standard redraft formats. The position is too deep, even for someone like me who believes the public is being too harsh on this offense. That said, he is a viable QB2 and makes for an interesting triple stack/bring-back option in massive DFS contests.
Kirk Cousins: Cousins is on the very short list of quarterbacks that I’d ever project for fewer than 10 rushing yards in a week and still give a top-15 ranking to, but here he is. In the Justin Jefferson era, Cousins has averaged 20.9 fantasy points when favored by more than a field goal at home, and that’s the spot he finds himself in to open 2023.
The Bucs ranked third in defensive rush success rate last season, providing the Vikings with an excuse (not that they need it) to air it out. Cousins has cleared 19 fantasy points in three straight season openers, and he has a good chance to make it four in a row on Sunday afternoon.
Cousins is part of a QB cluster in my rankings from QB8-16, all of whom I have finishing within two points of one another and all of whom I am fine with playing this week.
Running Backs
Rachaad White: Sean Tucker impressed during the preseason, and he could be a long-term threat to the security of the lead role for White, but that seems unlikely to happen on Sunday.
With Leonard Fournette out of the mix, word around Bucs camp is that White should see upwards of 70% of the RB touches to open the season, a role that single-handedly makes him a fantasy starter. The Vikings were the third-worst scoring defense a season ago, and the Bucs figure to want to keep Justin Jefferson and Co. on the sidelines.
White is unlikely to land a “Sportscenter Top 10” play, but that’s not a category fantasy managers get points for. Whether you believe in White the player or not, his role/matchup combination in Week 1 locks him into fantasy lineups, no matter the format. He’s a top-20 guy for me.
Alexander Mattison: The Bucs had a top-10 run defense last season in terms of EPA, thanks to a bend (2,052 rush yards allowed) but not break (TD on just 2.6% of attempts) unit. Is that sustainable? Not usually, and with Mattison holding the unquestioned feature role, you can start him with confidence.
Limited versatility and explosiveness worry me long-term, but as a heavy favorite against a shaky run defense, he’ll be fine. I’d be surprised if he single-handedly wins you your Week 1 matchup, though I think it’s just as unlikely that he sinks you. Boring but viable: an Alexander Mattison story.
Wide Receivers
Chris Godwin and Mike Evans: Not many expect the Buccaneers to be a great team this season, but even fewer expect the Vikings to have a solid defense. In Todd Bowles’ first season as the head coach in Tampa, the Bucs passed 66% of the time when trailing, a major bump up from their 54.9% otherwise. With a spread flirting with a full touchdown, there’s little doubt that this is going to be a pass-heavy script.
How Mayfield distributes his targets is something we will get a better feel for with time, but the Russell Gage injury should further solidify the target share of these two stars. That said, Mayfield’s résumé is strong on deep throws, and Godwin has proven more than capable of getting open in a hurry.
This is a strong opening spot for an offense with plenty of questions, and I’ve got both Buccaneer WRs in the fantasy starter conversation (not bad, given the price you paid on draft day). They carry risk, if for no other reason than we are not sure that Mayfield can support a pair of receivers.
That said, both of these receivers should be penciled in as fine Flex plays to open the season. The Bucs play three games against the NFC North in their first five, a division that is fantasy-friendly, to say the least.
Justin Jefferson: Jefferson is averaging 13.4 targets and has scored in each of his past five full games as a favorite — not that you needed a reason to feel good about a popular 1.01 pick.
Jordan Addison and K.J. Osborn: Circle back to me in October about this WR2 situation. I think it’s more likely than not that one of Addison/Osborn vaults himself into the weekly Flex conversation, but I need to see it before I assume it. I’m watching the rookie’s usage, from aDOT to the ability to earn targets.
T.J. Hockenson is the second option in this passing game, but if they repeat a pass rate that ranked sixth in the NFL last season, a third option is going to be a fantasy asset as long as that option is consistently third in the target hierarchy. Addison is a low-end Flex play for me in deeper leagues, while Osborn, at the moment, is just roster depth.
Tight Ends
T.J. Hockenson: You’re starting Hockenson every single week, and I maintain that if — and it’s a giant if — a tight end is going to unseat Taylor Swift fanboy Travis Kelce atop the TE ranks, it’s Hock.
MORE: Fantasy Start/Sit Tool
The Bucs allowed the fourth-highest completion percentage when opponents targeted the tight end position last season (74.1%), and until we see either secondary Vikings WR earn targets at a consistent rate, Hockenson’s projectable volume is to be considered nothing short of elite. Look for him to show out and earn every penny of his new contract in the season opener.