The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will face the Dallas Cowboys in Week 16. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Buccaneers skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 16 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Baker Mayfield, QB
Baker Mayfield has a level of inevitability to his 2024 profile, and all “inevitable” traits of the 2024 Cowboys are negative, making this the profile of a QB1 without much question.
QB games with 18+ fantasy points, 2024:
- Lamar Jackson: 12
- Josh Allen: 11
- Baker Mayfield: 11
- Jayden Daniels: 10
That, of course, is an impressive list (I’ll take the L on Anthony Richardson weekly, but you have to give me this QB sleeper call from June, but it gets even better when you consider the skill set limitations.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m as much a fan of reckless Mayfield runs as anyone, but I don’t think it’s a stretch to call him “less athletic” than the other names on that list.
Here’s what that list looks like if we only include games with under 45 rushing yards:
- Baker Mayfield: 11
- Sam Darnold: Nine
- Josh Allen: Seven
- Joe Burrow: Seven
Mayfield takes that form into a matchup against a Dallas defense that ranks 24th in passer rating, 25th in completion percentage, and 31st in yards per attempt. He’s a big reason why you’re in the spot you are right now (10 top-10 finishes), and there’s no reason to pivot.
Bucky Irving, RB
This kid is the real deal. Bucky Irving had a 40+ yard carry in each of his past three games in which he saw 5+ carries and has a 15+ yard catch in three of his past four overall.
The rookie has been dealing with a back injury, but it didn’t sap him of any explosion last week; in a much more favorable spot this time around, counting on 14-18 touches and 100 scrimmage yards is plenty reasonable (nine finishes inside the top 24 this season).
The Cowboys are the fourth-worst rush defense by EPA, putting Irving in a spot to win in the traditional run, something that should alleviate Irving managers of any concerns when it comes to Rachaad White’s involvement.
Rachaad White, RB
This backfield is slowly moving away from Rachaad White, and I think that’s right, but it’s not going in that direction fast enough to render White useless. Bucky Irving played 62.5% of Tampa Bay’s first-quarter snaps last week, his highest rate since Week 6.
White didn’t help matters by losing a fumble last week in Los Angeles, but he salvaged the fantasy afternoon with an 11-yard touchdown catch as the Bucs poured it on late. I don’t have this projected as a committee situation, and that introduces risk to White’s profile, but as a road favorite with plenty of scoring equity, I don’t have a problem considering him a top-30 back in this matchup.
Even with a diminishing role, White has at least 10 carries in five straight in addition to his consistent usage in the passing game.
Jalen McMillan, WR
I don’t want to say that the current Bucs are functioning at Week 1-2 Saints or peak Jameis Winston Cleveland levels, but we aren’t far, and Tampa Bay’s two primary receivers are dominating.
Since Mike Evans’ return from the hamstring injury, 63 receivers have seen at least 15 targets. Here are the leaders in PPR production over expectation over that stretch:
- Terry McLaurin: +73.7%
- Jalen McMillan: +60.5%
- Jerry Jeudy: +50.8%
- Mike Evans: +50.5%
I’m not comfortable in labeling the rookie as a must-start with your season on the line, but this is awfully good form and an awfully good matchup (Dallas has the worst red-zone defense in the NFL).
McMillan’s aDOT is down 26.2% over the past three weeks from his rate prior, and I think that actually adds to his appeal at this point — the deep role is Evans’, and that’s not going to change.
I’ve got Tampa Bay’s WR2 ranked as a low-end WR3 in this spot, putting McMillan on the Flex radar in deeper formats.
Mike Evans, WR
Mike Evans absorbed 42.3% of the targets last week and now needs 83.7 receiving yards per game to close the season to again get to 1,000. The narrative of him chasing that number is fun to track, but that’s secondary right now with the Bucs unbeaten since their Week 11 bye.
Evans has cleared a 28% on-field target share in four of his past five games, a level of involvement that ranks among the very best in the sport. With Baker Mayfield playing as well as he ever has, you should be loving the ability to walk into your Week 16 matchup with Evans facing a defense that allows a touchdown on 26.7% of drives (fourth-highest).
Cade Otton, TE
I’m going to keep saying it: Cade Otton isn’t a reliable fantasy option when Mike Evans is on the field. It’s really that simple. I write a million words weekly, and I just keep copy-pasting that intro until the higher ups tell me that no one is consuming the Otton portion of this article.
With Mike Evans on the field, 2024:
- 14.1% on-field target share
- 19.5% red-zone target rate
- 4.3 aDOT
Without Mike Evans on the field, 2024:
- 21.1% on-field target share
- 30% red-zone target rate
- 7,3 aDOT
Otton hauled in a pass on Tampa Bay’s second pass over the weekend in the blowout win over the Chargers and guess what?
I didn’t blink, and you shouldn’t have either. I’m a selfish person, and I can’t fade a player I don’t roster, so I’ve taken to betting his under receptions of late to leverage the overrating of the Bucs’ tight end. I laddered his total down as low as my sportsbooks would let me (I got under 4.5 heavily juiced and under 3.5 at plus money) last week.
Brenton Strange (JAX) and Stone Smartt (LAC) are good options for the “made up or NFL player” name game for casual observers — they also happen to be tight ends that I’d play in all formats this week with confidence over Otton.