The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will face the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 15. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Buccaneers skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 15 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Baker Mayfield, QB
Baker Mayfield has a little Jameis Winston in his profile, and that makes him difficult to evaluate. On one hand, he completed eight of nine passes to six different players through the first two drives on Sunday against the Raiders. On the other, he was five-of-10 for the rest of the half with two of those five incompletions being intercepted.
For me, trying to nail down players like this is maddening. Yes, that’s what I get paid to do, but randomness comes into play for profiles like this more than most. What changed in that Vegas matchup after the first 10 minutes?
Not the weather. Not the quality of defense. Not the support of his offense. Literally nothing changed, and yet, his production fluctuated crazily.
That said, I tend to rank Mayfield based on the opponent. The Chargers are easily the least stingiest defense on short passes (4.7 yards per attempt, nearly a full yard below league average) and that puts us in a tough spot when you consider that, after throwing six deep touchdown passes in seven games to open the season, Mayfield has just one in six games since.
With both of these teams ranking at bottom-eight in pace, I don’t trust the quality or quantity in this spot. Rookies like Bo Nix and Drake Maye grade more favorably this week as do a trio of NFC North QBs that have battled fantasy inconsistencies of their own (Sam Darnold, Jordan Love, and Jared Goff).
Bucky Irving, RB
Bucky Irving has been ultra-impressive this season, but with plenty of depth behind him, Tampa Bay has the luxury of taking the cautious approach. He’s only going to be available if “they can get the back to loosen up,” according to Todd Bowles.
I’m tentatively not counting on Irving at the moment. If that changes, we adjust and play him. The goal of the Bucs could well be to have their explosive rookie ready for matchups with the Cowboys and Panthers in Weeks 16-17.
Fantasy managers should be favoring that line of thought — Irving could be a league winner if at full strength for that favorable stretch.
Rachaad White, RB
Rachaad White has had an up-and-down season, but with Bucky Irving battling a back injury, he could see his role peak at the perfect time.
White has eight touchdowns over his past seven games, and he’s even showcased some rushing upside in the first two games this month (28 carries for 166 yards, highlighted by a disrespectful stiff arm last week). I’m not sure that level of efficiency on the ground is here to stay, especially against the seventh-best rush defense by success rate, but if the volume looks anything like last week (17 carries), there is RB1 potential here.
Based on early reporting out of Tampa, I’m comfortable in projecting White to lead this backfield in carries, regardless of whether Irving plays or not. It’s not an ideal matchup, but if we are talking 15+ carries alongside his consistent efficiency in the passing game (89.1% catch rate this season), it’ll be close to impossible to justify benching White this week with your season on the line.
Jalen McMillan, WR
Jalen McMillan was one of the breakout stories of Week 14, scoring a pair of touchdowns in the 28-13 win over the Raiders. The 21.9 PPR fantasy points were great to see, but with just 11.7 expected points to show for that role, I worry about the sustainability.
Through 13 weeks, the rookie was producing 26.7% below expectations, further increasing my concerns that last week was anything other than a flash in the pan. If you trust 2+ months of data over a strong four quarters, you’d have expected McMillan to score 8.6 points last week; if that was the case, would we be having this discussion?
He has a 50% catch rate for the season — with just 119 air yards over his past three games, there’s not enough upside in this profile for me to Flex him.
Mike Evans, WR
Mike Evans has four top-10 finishes this season (three of which came in the first five weeks). Those games are fun when they land, but with those being his only top-25’s of the season, this isn’t the résumé of an elite fantasy asset.
In this era without Chris Godwin, I would have never guessed that a 17.9% target share in a positive matchup was possible for Evans, though that is what we got against the Raiders on Sunday. The touchdown equity remains intact with his highest red-zone target rate since 2019. That is why you can continue to play Evans with confidence, even if the range of outcomes on a weekly basis is far greater than what you expected on draft day.
Evans needs to average 102.5 receiving yards the rest of the way to extend his record 1,000-yard streak, and we’ve seen this team go out of their way to get him to that number — you’re playing him. While this matchup appears stiff on paper, we are talking about the second-most vulnerable downfield defense in terms of touchdown rate.
Cade Otton, TE
I’m going to keep saying it: Cade Otton isn’t a reliable fantasy option when Mike Evans is on the field. It’s really that simple.
With Mike Evans on the field, 2024:
- 14.7% on-field target share
- 21.6% red-zone target rate
- 4.3 aDOT
Without Mike Evans on the field, 2024:
- 21.1% on-field target share
- 30% red-zone target rate
- 6.9 aDOT
Otton had a chunk play over the weekend (44 yards), and that’s great, but he did little to change my stance — he’s not someone I’m banking on as long as this offense is reasonably healthy. The Chargers have allowed a league-low 4.6 yards per catch after the reception this season; Tampa Bay’s tight end doesn’t grace my top 15 this week.