The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will face the New York Giants in Week 12. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Buccaneers skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 12 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Baker Mayfield, QB
If we are going to complain about the rash of receiver injuries this season, we have to give their offenses a bump when they return. So with Mike Evans (hamstring) expected back for this contest, I have Baker Mayfield ranked as a fantasy starter this weekend.
Mayfield’s yards per attempt have declined in four straight games, but didn’t I see C.J. Stroud struggle following the Nico Collins injury and Patrick Mahomes’ numbers look different without Rashee Rice?
Since the start of 2023, 10.5% of Mayfield’s passes thrown to Evans have resulted in scores, a rate that more than doubles his number to all other Buccaneers (4.7%).
The Giants boast a top-10 defense in terms of pressure rate, a strength that Mayfield is capable of undoing, given that he is averaging a respectable 3.1 rushing fantasy points per game.
Tampa Bay is a road favorite in this spot and should flirt with 30 points. If that’s the case, Mayfield likely finishes Week 12 as a top-10 signal-caller, which is how I have it ranked.
Bucky Irving, RB
The Buccaneers refuse to fully commit to one back, which is hurting the projections for both. Bucky Irving seems to have the slight edge, but with a sub-50% snap share in four straight, the floor is low no matter what you think of the talent.
I’m in. At least for this week.
Irving has as many 10+ yard runs as carries that have failed to gain yardage this season, making him the preferred option to Rachaad White in a traditional run game in which Tampa Bay is a road favorite.
The rookie has shown nice versatility (92.9% catch rate with multiple receptions in six straight), and that’s enough to earn him an RB2 grade from me this weekend, even without the promise of volume.
Rachaad White, RB
There’s no denying that Rachaad White’s skill set is limited, but “limited” doesn’t mean useless.
White has seen at least six targets in three of his past four games and has found paydirt five times in that span. That said, his profile certainly carries a significant amount of risk.
White hasn’t had more than 10 carries in a game since the season-opening win over the Commanders, and his boom/bust rate (percentage difference in carries gaining at least 10 yards compared to the rate of runs that fail to gain yardage) is an ugly 21.3%.
This season, only 5% of White’s runs have picked up 10 yards. And in a game where Tampa Bay should be playing with a lead, Bucky Irving is the direction I prefer to go in this backfield if given the opportunity.
White is a viable Flex option in full-PPR formats, but if the game script works away from him, a single-digit performance is very possible.
Jalen McMillan, WR
Jalen McMillan is battling a hamstring injury that labeled him as a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency option in Week 10 before the bye (active, zero snaps), a situation that deserves monitoring in deeper formats.
On the surface, his 15 targets over his past two healthy games look good, but those were high-volume games for the offense as a whole. For the season, McMillan’s 13.1% on-field target share this season (0.65 yards per route) is simply not going to cut it.
That said, the Giants are the worst defense in the league in terms of opponent deep pass completion percentage, a vulnerability that an athletic profile like McMillan’s with a 14.2-yard aDOT can exploit. I don’t think we are looking at more than a handful of targets, but there’s a reasonable path to double-digit PPR points; that risk/reward math works out for managers in large leagues or with depth issues.
Mike Evans, WR
Rashod Bateman, Jameson Williams, Kyle Pitts, Drake London, Darnell Mooney, KhaDarel Hodge, Ricky Pearsall, Deebo Samuel Sr., George Kittle, Jauan Jennings, Christian McCaffrey, Foster Moreau, Juwan Johnson, DeAndre Hopkins, Brian Robinson Jr., Josh Reynolds, Saquon Barkley, Grant Calcaterra, Chris Godwin, Ryan Miller, Sean Tucker, Rachaad White, Jalen McMillan, Sterling Shepard, and Cade Otton.
What is that you ask?
It’s the list of all of the players with a catch gaining more than 25 yards in a Buccaneers game this season. Read through it again. Mike Evans’ name is not on that list.
That feels almost impossible, but with no more than three catches in four of his past six games, it makes some sense. Touchdowns have largely bailed you out, and while his track record suggests that he’s going to score more often than not (100 TD grabs in 161 career games), it’s worth being aware of the limitations, especially coming off of the hamstring injury.
Remember in 2022 when Evans entered the final week of the season needing 83 receiving yards to keep his 1,000-yard streak going and Tampa Bay funneled the offense his way (10-207-3 against the Panthers)?
He needs to average 95 yards per game the rest of the way to get there this season. So there’s that narrative to chance as we come down the stretch, but I tend to be on the more pessimistic side when it comes to this 31-year-old’s profile.
Cade Otton, TE
Cade Otton has a touchdown or 8+ targets in five straight games and has proven to be a cheat code for anyone who scooped him off of the waiver wire when Tampa Bay suffered its rash of injuries.
Good work!
You’ve earned wins over the past month because of your savvy, but might the savvy play now be to move on?
With Mike Evans on the field, 2024:
- 0.95 yards per route
- 14.8% on-field target hare
- 4.1 aDOT
Without Evans on the field, 2024:
- 1.69 yards per route
- 22% on-field target share
- 6.6 aDOT
Evans is expected to return coming out of the bye, and with the Bucs entering as a road favorite, could we be looking at a lower-volume game in terms of pass attempts?
With six teams on a bye, there aren’t a ton of options at the tight end position to pivot to; that is why Otton remains a fringe starter for me, but I’m not at all interested in going this direction in DFS formats.