The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will face the San Francisco 49ers in Week 10. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Buccaneers skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 10 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Baker Mayfield, QB
I’ll admit that when Baker Mayfield lost both of his star receivers, I didn’t imagine myself typing “longest active streak of multi-touchdown passes (six)” in November, but here we are.
I don’t want to say Mayfield is doing it with smoke and mirrors, but in those three games, 60.4% of his completions have gone to RBs/TEs, and that’s usually a target tree that caps upside significantly. That hasn’t been the case up to this point, though. However, you can put me in the skeptical camp when it comes to Mayfield’s ability to pull fantasy points out of a hat in this spot.
Nine times has a receiver reached a dozen PPR points against the 49ers this season, with CeeDee Lamb dismantling them prior to the bye (39.6 points, thanks to a 45.9% target share that resulted in him gaining 60.1% of their receiving yards).
San Francisco’s defense isn’t as scary as it’s been in years past, but the 49ers are coming off of their bye, with the expectation that Mike Evans (hamstring) will remain out.
The only quarterbacks that have even flirted with usability against the 49ers this season had access to one of the game’s finest receivers (Dak Prescott and Sam Darnold) or possessed unique athleticism (Kyler Murray had a 50-yard touchdown run). Mayfield checks neither of those boxes and sits outside of my top 15 this week despite the form he enters with.
Bucky Irving, RB
I’m as guilty as anyone when it comes to trying to make Bucky Irving happen, and Week 9 was a sobering reminder that we just aren’t there yet (10 touches for 34 yards). The rookie has been on the field for under 42% of Tampa Bay’s offensive snaps in each of the past three weeks, a role that is going to make it hard to return RB2 value, no matter how talented we think he is.
The 49ers’ defense isn’t as good as they were in many areas this season, but they are allowing 18.5% fewer yards per carry after contact to running backs. That’s a problem as that is where Irving is going to have to separate himself — Rachaad White isn’t a perfect back by any means, but he’s going to remain involved in the passing game for the remainder of the season.
It was White with the seven-yard touchdown run on Monday night — if Irving can show enough in the coming weeks to take over that role, he can force his way into the Flex lock conversation. But for now, he’s a situational play, checking in at RB30 in my current Week 10 rankings.
Rachaad White, RB
If you thought Rachaad White was a maddening fantasy asset when he was a featured member of this offense, allow me to introduce you to the current version. On Monday night against the Chiefs, he had six opportunities, a second straight week of decline, and a role that isn’t usually of any interest to us.
But … in an offense that is void of playmakers, he somehow keeps paying the fantasy bills (four touchdowns over the past three weeks despite totaling just 33 touches over that stretch). From a process standpoint, fading White makes all the sense in the world. However, I’ve hedged that bet a bit by labeling him as the RB27 because his versatility will be valued in this spot, as I’m not sure any other Buccaneer will have success.
For the season, opponents have completed 37 of 43 passes (86%) thrown to running backs against the 49ers, giving White the path to pay off a limited role once again. By no means is he a must-start in this difficult matchup, but I’d play him over the dart-throw range of receivers (the Rome Odunze-Jordan Addison tier).
Jalen McMillan, WR
A hamstring injury (stop me if you’ve heard that before in football as we know it this season) resulted in Jalen McMillan being a late scratch on Monday night. This is a slightly complicated profile as there are more moving pieces than answers.
How healthy is McMillan? What role can a compromised version of him fill this week? What does his target tree look like once Mike Evans returns?
This is a situation to monitor for deep leagues this week. I was encouraged by the metrics the rookie put forth in Weeks 6-8 (19.3% target rate with a 13.9 aDOT and 29.7% slot usage), numbers that I think have a chance to stick or improve as Evans trends toward full health.
That’s not this week, however. McMillan is likely to be operating at less than full capacity against the fourth-best defense at creating pressure — who also happens to be coming off of a bye.
I’m interested in holding McMillan in deeper formats through the upcoming bye, but in tighter leagues, being out of the Flex conversation for each of the next two weeks makes him a cut candidate.
Mike Evans, WR
Until I hear otherwise, I’m operating under the assumption that Mike Evans’ serious hamstring injury will keep him sidelined through the Week 11 bye.
- Week 12 at New York Giants
- Week 13 at Carolina Panthers
- Week 14 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
- Week 15 at Los Angeles Chargers
- Week 16 at Dallas Cowboys
- Week 17 vs. Carolina Panthers
The injury is obviously annoying and could result in your fantasy team struggling to make the playoffs. However, if you can tread water during Evans’ absence, it would appear clear that you’ll be positioned to make a run.
We saw Tampa Bay move heaven and earth last season to get Evans to 1,000 yards for the 10th consecutive season. If such a push happens this season (665 yards to go with, at most, seven games left on his 2024 ledger), you’re going to be thrilled to have him on your roster.
If you have a winning team and the Evans manager is fighting for his/her life, you’d be wise to leverage that in the form of a trade offer.
Cade Otton, TE
Our guy Cardio Cade Otton has been the best thing since sliced bread recently.
That’s not true. Bread is good and everything, but does eating a sandwich really compare with going on a fantasy heater in the middle of the season? Maybe I’m biased, but I’d say no. Over the past three weeks, Otton has been fantasy football’s No. 5 scorer. Not at the tight end position but in the whole league.
- Jalen Hurts: 87.8 PPR points
- Lamar Jackson: 82.2
- Saquon Barkley: 71.7
- De’Von Achane: 69.3
- Otton: 68.8
He’s not on that list because of one of those outlier games and a few ordinary ones. He’s one of four pass catchers with at least 15 PPR points in each of those weeks as he consistently has been giving you a massive edge over your competition.
Of course, as fantasy managers, the question is about the future, not the past. I’d love to tell you that we’ve uncovered gold, and when Tampa Bay suffered their receiver injuries and you picked up Otton, you won your league. But I can’t.
He’s been great and will certainly have a greater role, but asking him to continue to account for 27.5% of Baker Mayfield’s completions or own a 41.7% end-zone target share is a lot.
With Mike Evans on the field, 2024:
- 165 routes
- 18 catches
- 156 yards
- 37.6 fantasy points
Without Evans on the field, 2024:
- 147 routes
- 26 catches
- 265 yards
- 70.1 fantasy points
This weekend, Otton draws a defense that is in the top five against the position in both YAC and yards per target. Next week, the Bucs have their bye, and in Week 12, he faces the second-best YAC team against the position that also owns the lowest touchdown rate allowed to tight ends.
Evans is expected back in Week 12, and I’ve already bet on Tampa Bay going under their implied team total this week (21 points) against a rested 49ers defense that is expected to get Christian McCaffrey back, something that should result in long, sustained drives and thus a limited possession count for the Bucs.
Of course, with Chris Godwin’s season over, I don’t expect Otton to fade into the abyss. I think he’s a top-10 tight end the rest of the way, but remember that Tucker Kraft run we had in the first month of the season? This feels like that — a player you start weekly in hopes of returning to the elite form we saw at one point and instead settling for the up-and-down production that this position breeds.
If I had the chance to move Otton for a Ladd McConkey type (consistent producer whose bye week is in the past), I think I would.
San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Insights
San Francisco 49ers
Team: The 49ers won six straight games out of their bye last season, outscoring the opposition 207-94 in the process.
QB: In Weeks 1-7 last season, Brock Purdy’s quick pass rate was 74.1%. Since, that rate has been trimmed to 55.4%.
Offense: Settling. The 49ers have kicked a field goal on 26.5% of their drives this season, up from 11.7% a year ago.
Defense: In Weeks 2-6, San Francisco forced their opposition to go three-and-out on 28.8% of their drives, a rate that spiked in the two weeks before their bye (43.5%).
Fantasy: Jalen Hurts, Baker Mayfield, and Purdy were the only QBs to finish Weeks 6-7-8 as a top-10 fantasy signal-caller.
Betting: The 49ers have covered six of their past eight games as a road favorite (those two losses came in Weeks 2-3 this season, outright losses to the Vikings and Rams).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Team: Will their fate depend on how they can produce on the road? Following the Week 11 bye, Tampa Bay plays four of five on the road (all of which are winnable: Giants, Panthers, Chargers, and Cowboys).
QB: Baker Mayfield has the longest active streak of multi-pass games at six straight (Josh Allen is second with four straight).
Offense: Tampa Bay has allowed pressure on just 12.8% of dropbacks over the past two weeks, easily the lowest rate in the league.
Defense: The Bucs have allowed opponents to convert 60% of third downs over the past two weeks (first seven weeks: 37.2%).
Fantasy: Cade Otton is one of four pass catchers to have 15 PPR points in each of the past three weeks, joining Justin Jefferson, Terry McLaurin, and Cedric Tillman.
Betting: Overs are 7-2 in the last nine instances in which a team on short rest faces one on an extended break.