Tom Brady has announced his retirement, again — but this time, it doesn’t look like he’ll be coming back. After three seasons with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and 23 total years in the NFL, Brady is officially hanging up his cleats.
Now, the Buccaneers will need a new quarterback. Tampa Bay is projected to be more than $50 million over the salary cap in 2023, so spending room will be limited. However, with the NFC South still up for grabs, the Bucs can make the financials work out if they want to compete for another division title.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Post-Tom Brady QB Options
The Buccaneers fired offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich after the season, and much of the rest of their offensive coaching staff will also experience turnover. As Tampa Bay moves forward with OC interviews, their play-caller decision could impact who they target as their next quarterback.
Let’s run through the options available to the Buccaneers in the coming weeks and months.
Derek Carr
The Raiders are moving on from Derek Carr, and while they’d surely like to trade him and acquire draft capital instead of outright releasing him, the timing of his contract may affect their plans. Carr’s $32.9 million base salary becomes fully guaranteed on Feb. 15. If Las Vegas and Tampa Bay can’t work out a deal before that date, the Raiders will likely be forced to cut Carr.
Whether it’s via trade or free agency, Carr is among the most realistic candidates to take over as the Buccaneers’ starting quarterback in 2023. Tampa Bay could work out a cap-friendly contract that would allow them to add Carr without torching the rest of their roster, and the 31-year-old would offer the Bucs a high floor as they try to keep contending in a woeful NFC South.
Jimmy Garoppolo
With Brock Purdy staring at a six-month UCL recovery and Trey Lance still recovering from his season-ending ankle injury, the 49ers’ quarterback situation is totally up in the air. Brady looked like a legitimate contender to join San Francisco next season, but now that’s unavailable, the 49ers could turn back to Garoppolo if the price is right.
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However, Garoppolo has a no-franchise tag clause in his contract with San Francisco, so he’ll have the chance to explore other destinations before making his free agent decision. If the Buccaneers feel they can compete for the next several seasons, Garoppolo could make sense under center. But if Garoppolo has the choice to stick with the 49ers, or join Josh McDaniels and the Raiders, Tampa Bay might not look like an attractive landing spot.
Aaron Rodgers
Could the Buccaneers go from one future Hall of Famer to another? Aaron Rodgers is seemingly on the trade block, and his cap charges for the next two seasons — roughly $48 million in total — should be feasible for nearly any team in the league.
However, it’s not just the next two years that an acquiring team would have to worry about. There’s a lot of potential dead money baked into Rodgers’ contract. If he decides to retire at some point soon, his club would be on the hook for those sums, and the Bucs are already in enough of a salary cap mess.
Plus, Rodgers has already stated that he has no intention of being part of a rebuild. While Tampa Bay could contend for another season, they could be on the brink of a Rams-esque collapse, which would be a no-go for the 39-year-old Rodgers.
Daniel Jones
Daniel Jones couldn’t be hitting free agency at a better time. He’s coming off the best season of his career, one in which he ranked seventh in QBR and 11th in EPA per dropback. Still, it’s fair to wonder if Jones could keep up that level of production without Brian Daboll and Mike Kafka around.
The Buccaneers have interviewed Giants quarterbacks coach Shea Tierney for their vacant offensive coordinator position. If Tampa Bay hires Tierney, he could conceivably push for Jones, but the Bucs might not have the cap space to ink the former first-round pick to a long-term deal. The Giants may end up using the franchise tag on Jones, taking him off the market before free agency even opens.
Baker Mayfield
Given Tampa Bay’s financial issues, they may have to cut costs under center next season. In that case, Baker Mayfield could make for an interesting stopgap option.
Mayfield struggled through six starts with the Panthers before ending the year as a four-game starter for the Rams. The No. 1 overall selection in the 2018 draft, Mayfield looked improved in Los Angeles, and he’s not that far removed from success with the Browns (65.5 QBR in 2020).
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If the Bucs want to take a small step backward to reassess their roster in 2023, Mayfield could be a fit. He’s unlikely to be expensive, and he’d give Tampa Bay a baseline level of play that would allow its offense to function.
Ryan Tannehill
Given that he has a $36.6 million cap charge in 2023 and has regressed in each of the last two seasons, Ryan Tannehill is closer to a release candidate than a trade target. There’s almost no chance he returns to the Titans at his current cap figure, so the Buccaneers could wait to see if he gets cut.
Tannehill was one of the NFL’s more efficient quarterbacks over his first two seasons in Tennessee, but he’s regressed over the last two years and is now 34 years old. The Titans’ offensive structure fell apart around him, so it’s possible Tannehill could produce better results with an improved supporting cast in Tampa Bay. The Bucs would almost certainly have to draft a quarterback on Day 1 or 2 to pair with Tannehill.
Jacoby Brissett
There are enough high-profile quarterbacks available this offseason that Jacoby Brissett might once again get pushed to the back burner. But whichever team ultimately signs him is likely to receive solid, if unspectacular, production.
Brissett managed the best season of his career with the Browns in 2022, ranking eighth in QBR, 10th in EPA per dropback, and 13th in adjusted net yards per attempt. However, the 30-year-old benefitted from a strong run game and one of the league’s best offensive lines in Cleveland. If that same foundation isn’t in place in Tampa Bay, Brissett could end up as a disappointment.
Kyle Trask
The Buccaneers drafted Trask with the 64th overall selection in the 2021 draft, but there’s been no indication they consider him their quarterback of the future. He wasn’t able to beat out veteran Blaine Gabbert for the backup quarterback job, and Tampa Bay didn’t even let him start their meaningless Week 17 game against the Falcons.
If the Bucs start Trask in 2023, at least they’d know where they stood by 2024. If Trask succeeds, Tampa Bay has its QB of the future. If he fails, they’d be set up to select a new signal-caller early in the 2024 draft. For now, Trask is the only quarterback under contract on the Buccaneers’ roster.
2023 NFL Draft
Holding the No. 19 overall pick, the Buccaneers won’t be in range to grab Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Will Levis, or Anthony Richardson in the first round. While they could potentially trade up, a team with Tampa Bay’s cap issues doesn’t need to be sacrificing picks — they’ll need those selections and rookie contracts to sustain their aging roster.
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The Buccaneers could look at prospects like Purdue’s Aidan O’Connell or Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker later in the draft. However, if Tampa Bay feels that Trask can still develop into a viable quarterback, it might not make sense to add another young passer to the depth chart.