Entering the 2024 NFL season, many expected the NFC South to be one of the more underwhelming divisions in the league. Sure enough, entering Week 17, every team in the division has at least seven losses.
With the Atlanta Falcons defeating the New York Giants in Week 16 and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers losing to the Dallas Cowboys, let’s break down how the Buccaneers can win the NFC South or secure a Wild Card spot.
What Is the Buccaneers’ Current Playoff Picture?
With the Bucs’ Sunday Night Football loss to the Cowboys, the Falcons are currently in first place in the NFC South. If they win out, the division title belongs to Atlanta.
The Falcons are 8-7, with remaining games against the Washington Commanders (road) and Carolina Panthers (home).
Meanwhile, the Buccaneers are also currently 8-7, and they’ll face the Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints at home down the stretch.
MORE: Simulate the Rest of the NFL Season With PFN’s Playoff Predictor
The Saints were alive entering Week 16 (just barely), but they were officially eliminated from the NFC South race and the playoffs this week.
Now, this is a two-team race between the Bucs and Falcons.
The Falcons won both regular-season games against the Buccaneers, so they own the head-to-head tiebreaker.
How Can the Buccaneers Win the NFC South?
Atlanta has the tiebreaker over Tampa Bay, so the Bucs must finish half a game ahead of the Falcons in the standings to win the division. This means that if the Falcons win out, the Buccaneers have no chance at the division, even if they also win out.
The Buccaneers will need to win their remaining games, and the Falcons will need to lose at least one of them. That would put the Falcons at 9-8 and the Buccaneers at 10-7.
With the Bucs’ loss to the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football and the Falcons getting a boost with No. 8 overall pick Michael Penix Jr. under center, the NFC South race is getting very interesting.
How Can the Buccaneers Secure a Wild Card Spot?
The Bucs are obviously hoping to enter the playoffs as NFC South champions. However, if the Falcons take the division crown, the Bucs have a small shot at a Wild Card spot.
MORE: Simulate the Rest of the NFL Season With PFN’s Playoff Predictor
If Tampa Bay finishes with 10 wins and there is still a playoff spot available in the NFC, then things are looking good for them. They have tiebreaker advantages over the Green Bay Packers (conference record), Washington Commanders (head-to-head), and Los Angeles Rams (conference record).
If the Bucs finish with nine wins and there’s a playoff spot available, they would have the tiebreaker over the Commanders (head-to-head).
But there are only two spots remaining, which means the Packers and Commanders would have to lose their remaining three games for the Falcons to have any chance at a Wild Card spot if they don’t win the division.
Did the Buccaneers Clinch a Playoff Spot in Week 16?
No, the Buccaneers could not clinch a playoff spot this week.
The NFC South race and NFC Wild Card race both seem poised to come down to the wire, so it’s very possible that Tampa Bay won’t be able to clinch a playoff spot until the final week of the season.
It really comes down to how the Bucs fare in their remaining games and how the Falcons perform, with Penix taking the reins from veteran Kirk Cousins.
Head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture and the current NFL postseason bracket.
NFC Playoff Race | Week 18
1. Detroit Lions (14-2)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (13-3)
3. Los Angeles Rams (10-6)
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7)
5. Minnesota Vikings (14-2)
6. Washington Commanders (11-5)
7. Green Bay Packers (11-5)
In The Hunt
9. Atlanta Falcons (8-8)
Eliminated From Playoffs
8. Seattle Seahawks (9-7)
10. Dallas Cowboys (7-9)
11. Arizona Cardinals (7-9)
12. San Francisco 49ers (6-10)
13. New Orleans Saints (5-11)
14. Chicago Bears (4-12)
15. Carolina Panthers (4-12)
16. New York Giants (3-13)
