Despite a tough start, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers surged down the stretch to claim their fourth straight NFC South title. As the No. 3 seed in the NFC playoffs, the Bucs will have at least one home game this postseason.
If Tampa Bay wins its home game in the Wild Card Round vs. the Washington Commanders, who are the Bucs likeliest to see in the Divisional Round?
What Are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Playoff Scenarios?
As the No. 3 seed, there are three potential opponents for the Bucs in the Divisional Round. The two teams they cannot face in the Divisional Round are the top-seeded Detroit Lions and the seventh-seeded Green Bay Packers (and the Commanders obviously).
For all scenarios outlined in this article, the key point to remember is that the NFL reseeds its teams after every round. The lowest remaining seed visits the highest remaining seed, unlike the majority of playoff formats (such as the College Football Playoff) where subsequent matchups are fixed based on the pre-existing bracket.
Therefore, the Bucs can’t host the Packers next round because Green Bay would become the lowest remaining seed if the Packers knock out the No. 2-seeded Philadelphia Eagles. They also won’t see the Lions yet because the Buccaneers can’t be the lowest-seeded team remaining either.
All scenarios and probabilities outlined below are under the assumption that the Buccaneers have beaten the Commanders. If you want to calculate the likelihood of each scenario happening, PFN’s Playoff Predictor projects Tampa Bay with a 54.9% chance of defeating Washington.
Based on PFN’s win probabilities, the Bucs’ most likely opponent is the Eagles. With the No. 2 seed favored to beat the Packers at home (59.0%), the Bucs and Eagles would be the two middle seeds remaining and face off in the Divisional Round.
With a win, there would be a 59.0% chance that Tampa Bay visits Philly in the Divisional Round. The next most likely outcome based on our win probabilities is a 22.5% chance of hosting the No. 5 seed Minnesota Vikings, then an 18.5% chance of hosting the No. 4 seed Los Angeles Rams.
As outlined above, the Buccaneers would visit the Eagles if both win at home in the Wild Card Round. At that point, the Vikings-Rams game would be irrelevant to Tampa Bay’s Divisional Round scenario.
If the Packers pull off the road upset, the Buccaneers would face whoever wins the Vikings-Rams matchup. That’s because the No. 7 seed Packers are the lowest-seeded NFC team and will automatically visit No. 1 seed Detroit if they win.
Therefore, the Packers-Eagles game determines whether or not Tampa Bay will get a second consecutive home game. They’ll stay at Raymond James Stadium if the Packers win, or visit Philadelphia if the Eagles win.
The Buccaneers did not face either the Vikings or Rams in the regular season. They did host the Eagles in Week 4 and handed Philly a 33-16 loss, the Birds’ largest defeat of the season. However, neither A.J. Brown nor DeVonta Smith played in that game, and the Eagles ripped off a franchise-record 10-game win streak immediately after that loss.
Could the Buccaneers Host the NFC Championship Game?
Yes, but it will require some help in the Divisional Round in the form of a Lions loss.
As mentioned above, the Buccaneers have scenarios where they can host a Divisional Round game. However, they can only host the NFC Championship Game if top-seeded Detroit loses its playoff opener. Otherwise, they’ll head back to the Motor City for a rematch of the Week 2 contest won by the Buccaneers, 20-16.
The only teams seeded third or lower to host a Conference Championship since 2000 are the 2021 Los Angeles Rams (No. 4 seed), the 2008 Arizona Cardinals (No. 4 seed), and the 2006 Indianapolis Colts (No. 3 seed). All three of those teams won to advance to the Super Bowl.