The last time these two teams played against each other, the Detroit Lions held the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to six points and no touchdowns. With a point total of 48.5 points, the oddsmakers are clearly not expecting a repeat of their last meeting, so what are the best touchdown scorer bets for Buccaneers vs. Lions? Our betting experts share their top picks.
Buccaneers vs. Lions Best Touchdown Scorer Bets
Mike Evans (+105 at FanDuel)
Soppe: This game has my money when it comes to forecasting the highest-scoring contest of the weekend (+220 at DraftKings), and part of my confidence in that bet is the matchup for their top play-maker in the pass game.
Evans leads the NFL in end-zone receptions over the past three seasons, and that is a role I like in this spot. This regular season, the Lions ranked sixth in terms of the fewest yards gained per catch after the reception on touchdowns — translation: Tampa Bay touchdowns are likely to come with two feet in the end zone.
Baker Mayfield is playing at as high a level as any signal-caller in the spot (Passer rating north of 116 in three of his past five games), and we saw Evans earn a 27% target share in the first meeting with the Lions, a game that saw Mayfield struggle.
Look for Tampa Bay’s pass game to continue to succeed and for Evans to be at the center of the festivities.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (+115 at ESPN BET)
Bearman: When looking at the touchdown odds, I did not expect to see Amon-Ra St. Brown at plus money.
St. Brown has scored at least one touchdown in each of the last four regular season games, and his 10 for the season were tied for the fourth most in the NFL.
You aren’t going to be able to stop all of the Lions’ weapons, and ARSB will snag another here. Oh and by the way, the Buccaneers’ pass defense finished the season as the 29th-ranked unit.
Sam LaPorta (+155 at ESPN BET)
Rolfe: The Buccaneers have really struggled against tight ends down the stretch. They allowed three touchdowns to the position in the final four weeks of the season, which was nearly as many as the rest of the season combined.
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LaPorta has scored in each of the last two games and five of the last eight. The value here is solid for a player that has been seeing plenty of red-zone usage this season.
Chris Godwin (+225 at DraftKings)
Blewis: Chris Godwin only scored one touchdown during the regular season and has an average depth of target below 10 yards, so that’s certainly not working in his favor here. But did you know that despite scoring 12 fewer touchdowns during the regular season, Godwin has an equal red-zone target share to Evans?
The reason there’s such a big gap between their odds is that Evans is a much better deep threat. If all odds were equal, then Evans would be the obvious pick for that reason, especially against a weak Lions secondary, but considering the matchup and expected negative game script, I like the value here for Godwin.
Cade Otton (+360 at FanDuel)
Katz: Allow me to preface this by saying I looked at Trey Palmer and David Moore first but deduced they are eating into each other’s playing time too much to justify their odds. That led me to Cade Otton.
Outside of the obvious ones, Otton feels like he has the best chance to score. This should be a high-scoring contest, and Otton is coming off an 11-target game. He was unfortunate not to find the end zone last week, enabling his odds to stay relatively long.
The Lions allowed the seventh-most receiving yards per game to tight ends this season. Yards correlate with touchdowns. They are also worse at defending the slot, where Otton lines up 30% of the time. That’s enough to give him a chance in a game where I expect the Bucs to score three touchdowns.
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