Betting on the NFL is tough this time of year, but getting ahead of the market during these high-volume weeks can be the way to go. This Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions game features two teams coming off of impressive wins in the Wild Card round that are led by quarterbacks that, at one time or another, have been counted out.
In our Buccaneers vs. Lions prediction, we make a pick against the spread and give out our favorite player prop bet.
Buccaneers vs. Lions Odds
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- Spread
Lions -6 - Moneyline
Buccaneers +220, Lions -270 - Total
48.5
Buccaneers vs. Lions Prediction
Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield are both playing at a high level right now, proving doubters wrong in a major way.
One of them will be a win away from a Super Bowl appearance, but before we look at the matchup this weekend, let’s look back at some of the standout stats from their Week 6 meeting (20-6 Lions win).
- 81 total pass attempts
- 38 total rush attempts
- Zero runs gaining more than eight yards
- Chris Godwin/Mike Evans saw 45.9% of targets
- Amon-Ra St. Brown/Sam LaPorta saw 63.4% of targets
The score may not show it, but this was a game that featured both offenses only moving the ball through the air, which projects to be something we could see again in the rematch.
The Buccaneers have gone 15 straight games without allowing a rush to gain more than 20 yards, the longest such streak since the Chicago Bears ripped off 16 straight bridging the 2000 and 2001 seasons, Brian Urlacher’s introduction to the NFL.
Detroit doesn’t boast quite the same streak, but while Tampa Bay has allowed just three runs over 20 yards this season (second fewest), the Lions aren’t far behind having allowed just four (tied third fewest).
MORE: Chiefs vs. Bills Prediction, Odds, and Picks for the Divisional Round
The interesting trend that occurs when pulling on the “no explosive run play” thread is that the Bucs are used to struggling in that regard and have learned to thrive in spite of it.
This season, Tampa Bay has the third-fewest explosive runs, but they’re 10-3 against the spread (ATS) in the games in which they didn’t record a chunk play on the ground; unders are also 10-3 in those games.
The quarterbacks are playing at an elite level, but these run defenses have been as consistent as anything, which leads to an early prop angle if you’re so inclined. Jahmyr Gibbs is in the 2024 fantasy football first-round discussion, but with a healthy David Montgomery, the rookie averages just 12.4 carries per game when the Lions are favored.
If we are to assume that the splash run is going to be difficult to come by, Gibbs is in a tough spot to make the most of limited volume — under 46.5 rushing yards in seven of eight games this season when failing to notch a run of 20+ yards.
Buccaneers vs. Lions Prediction: Buccaneers +6 (-108 at DraftKings) and Jahmyr Gibbs under 46.5 rushing yards (-110 at DraftKings)
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