In a matchup featuring two high-powered offenses and shaky defenses in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions, this game has the potential to be a high-scoring affair. But if so, which player prop bets should you be targeting? Our betting experts break it down, giving out their favorite Buccaneers vs. Lions player prop bets.
Top Buccaneers vs. Lions Player Prop Bets
Rachaad White Under 15.5 Rush Attempts (-110 at BetMGM)
Jason Katz: Rachaad White has gone over 15.5 rush attempts in 10 games this season, including last week against the Philadelphia Eagles. So, why are we on his under?
Let’s look at what those 10 games have in common. The Bucs won nine of them.
In losses, White went over this number just once. That outlier game was Week 9 against the Houston Texans where Tampa Bay was leading for the first three quarters.
The Bucs are 6.5-point underdogs on the road against the Lions this week. Additionally, Detroit is a pass-funnel defense. They allow the second-most passing yards per game, but the fewest rushing yards on average.
Tampa Bay is not going to run White into a wall over and over again. This season, the Bucs registered a 58% neutral game script pass rate. They throw when the game is competitive and run to salt it away.
Unless the Buccaneers surprise us all and take a lead into the second half against the Lions, I expect White to finish in the 10-12 carry range.
Chris Godwin Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Brian Blewis: Besides a garbage-time touchdown late in the game, Chris Godwin was pretty much a non-factor against the Eagles last week. There’s no way he can make it two weeks in a row against two of the worst pass defenses, right?
After the Commanders, the Eagles and Lions each gave up the most yards to wide receivers during the regular season. Unlike last week, however, I’m expecting the Buccaneers to be in a negative game script as 6.5-point underdogs against the Lions, which means Godwin should get more than the five targets he had against Philadelphia.
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The last time these two teams played each other in Week 6, Godwin had six receptions for 77 yards. Although the offense only put up six points, they threw the ball on 75% of their plays with an average depth of target of 12 yards per attempt. If history repeats itself, that should set up as a smash spot for Godwin.
Sam LaPorta Over 34.5 Receiving Yards (-110 at BetMGM)
Katz: Sam LaPorta suffered a scary-looking knee injury in the Lions’ Week 18 victory over the Minnesota Vikings. Fortunately, he escaped with just a hyperextended knee and a bone bruise. LaPorta probably would’ve missed last week’s game had it been a random regular-season game, but in the playoffs, he played through the injury.
LaPorta definitely wasn’t 100%, but he still played 80% of the snaps. Most importantly, he made it through the game without a setback.
Heading into the Divisional Round, LaPorta was already practicing fully on a Wednesday. I’m expecting him to be much more involved this week than he was last week when he caught just three passes for 14 yards.
LaPorta saw 11 targets when these teams played back in Week 6. He only caught four passes but still reached 36 yards, which is more than his line for this week.
Tampa Bay allowed 63 receiving yards per game to tight ends this season, just one yard behind the Denver Broncos for most in the league.
The way to beat the Buccaneers is through the air. Jared Goff should be airing it out plenty. And when the ball isn’t going in Amon-Ra St. Brown’s direction, it’s probably going to LaPorta. I think we win this in the first half.
Jahmyr Gibbs Under 46.5 Rushing Yards (-110 at DraftKings)
Kyle Soppe: The Buccaneers have gone 15 straight games without allowing a rush to gain more than 20 yards. That’s the longest such streak since the Chicago Bears ripped off 16 straight, bridging the 2000 and 2001 seasons, during Brian Urlacher’s introduction to the NFL.
Both Baker Mayfield and Goff are playing at an elite level, but these run defenses have been as consistent as anything, which leads to an early prop angle if you’re so inclined.
Jahmyr Gibbs is in the 2024 fantasy football first-round discussion, but with a healthy David Montgomery, the rookie averages just 12.4 carries per game when the Lions are favored.
If we are to assume that the splash run is going to be difficult to come by, Gibbs is in a tough spot to make the most of limited volume — under 46.5 rushing yards in seven of eight games this season when failing to notch a run of 20+ yards.
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