The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are one of the most powerful offenses in football. They produce a lot of offensive volume, meaning their fantasy stats are pretty powerful as well. However, they also take more risks than your average team, making their players more volatile for fantasy football than most owners would like. Add to the fact that they’re not winning at the moment and that could mean that they are in store for some big changes next year. Let’s look back at this 2019 season and see how the Buccaneers dynasty stock for 2020 is shaping up for each position group.
Quarterback
Jameis Winston
Overall OSM = 29.7 (QB5)
2019 Dynasty ADP = 124
Jameis Winston is one of those “love him or hate him” kinds of quarterbacks, both in fantasy and in real football. He throws a lot of passes, so his opportunity to score is high, but a lot of those passes get intercepted. Through Week 15, Winston has 26 touchdowns and 23 interceptions, which is almost unheard of in the NFL. He is second in the league in passing touchdowns, only behind Lamar Jackson with 28, but he has the most interceptions in the league by far, with second place being Baker Mayfield at 16.
In terms of individual production, he’s QB5 overall in terms of OSM, or Offensive Share Metric. He’s doing a lot with what he’s being given, which is great to see in a young quarterback. He’s got both a high floor and a high ceiling, which is great for fantasy, even though you might not want to watch him play for fear of having a heart attack thanks to all of the turnovers he causes.
All this is great, but will the Buccaneers keep him next year? Honestly, it’s too soon to tell. Clearly, he’s putting up numbers and getting the ball down the field, but they are sitting at 6-7 and have been eliminated from playoff contention. Winning matters more than any stat line in real football, so it’s very possible that the Bucs decide to move on.
A recent PFN mock draft projected that the Buccaneers would select Oklahoma quarterback Jalen Hurts with their second-round pick in the 2020 draft, which definitely makes sense. Winston is just too volatile for some teams, even though he’s a top QB in terms of fantasy output. For dynasty purposes, you probably have to hold him and see how the offseason plays out, but if you can sell him high, now is a good time to try.
Wide Receivers
Mike Evans
Overall OSM = 29.51 (WR77)
2019 Dynasty ADP = 11
Chris Godwin
Overall OSM = 37.44 (WR6)
2019 Dynasty ADP = 40
Breshad Perriman
Overall OSM = 24.65 (WR93)
2019 Dynasty ADP = 268
This wide receiver group is also one of the top producing groups in the league, both in terms of real and fantasy football. Mike Evans is a perennial stud, putting up 1,000-yard seasons all six years that he’s been in the league. Chris Godwin has come on strong this season and has really shined as the number two option in the offense, likely due to the primary focus being on Evans across the field. Godwin is second in terms of fantasy scoring (178) and Evans is third (165.7), so anyone that owns them is definitely happy with the production thus far.
That being said, things are about to change. With Evans’ hamstring injury, it’s very possible that Godwin gets bottled up for the rest of the season, and Bucs WR3 Breshad Perriman gets more looks from the pass-happy Jameis Winston. In terms of the Buccaneers dynasty stock for 2020, both Evans and Godwin are dynasty studs. You’re not moving either of them unless the price is right since they will never see your bench, but Perriman could be a sleeper pick if you need an Evans replacement for the rest of the season.
As for next year, don’t expect too much change in the Buccaneers receiver room. Evans and Godwin are both on deals that run through 2020, but there are two younger receivers ready to replace Perriman when his contract expires after this season: Justin Watson and Scott Miller. Both of these guys have been mentioned throughout the year as potential sleepers for dynasty leagues, so keep an eye on how they produce as the season winds down. It’s very possible that one of them emerges as the new WR3 next year if the Bucs let Perriman go, meaning both Watson and Miller are options for the end of your roster if you’re looking for some upside.
Tight Ends
O.J. Howard
Overall OSM = 34.66 (TE23)
2019 Dynasty ADP = 52
Cameron Brate
Overall OSM = 36.34 (TE18)
2019 Dynasty ADP = 232
O.J. Howard was a bust this year. There, I said it. He came into the season with high expectations, being drafted in the fifth round of most dynasty startup drafts, and has definitely not produced like it. At one point, he was benched for fumbling issues and just hasn’t been able to find his spot in the Bruce Arians’ offense all season. As everyone has heard by now, Arians doesn’t use his tight ends much, so Howard was due to regress back down to the mean, but not like this. Cameron Brate actually has more fantasy points this year (43.9) than Howard (40.7), thanks to Brate’s two extra touchdowns.
In terms of the future, don’t expect the Buccaneers to make many waves in terms of tight ends in the offseason. As mentioned above, Arians doesn’t like to target tight ends in his offense. It’s clear that Winston doesn’t mind, but that might not be enough to warrant TE1 status for Howard much longer. If you own him, you’re holding him, at least until he has a breakout game or Brate gets moved. As things currently sit, his value isn’t likely to rise much otherwise.
Running Back
Ronald Jones
Overall OSM = 17.62 (RB10)
2019 Dynasty ADP = 99
Peyton Barber
Overall OSM = 17.5 (RB11)
2019 Dynasty ADP = 138
Ronald Jones and Peyton Barber haven’t been that bad in terms of individual production this year, both ranking in the top 12 overall in terms of OSM, but in terms of fantasy production, they’ve been all over the map. Jones is currently 29th and Barber is currently 37th in terms of fantasy scoring, putting them both solidly in the flex conversation. So what gives? In this case, I think it’s the fact that neither one is the clear-cut starting option.
Jones has been benched for multiple reasons and Barber is, well, Barber. Neither really inspire much on their own. In addition, it is believed that the Bucs have been on the shortlist of destinations for many running backs up to the trade deadline, including Melvin Gordon, Le’Veon Bell, and Kenyan Drake, all of whom either stayed with their current team or were traded elsewhere. It’s clear that Jones and Barber aren’t getting it done, but what does that mean for dynasty?
RoJo is under contract through 2021, so I don’t expect him to be cut, but he definitely could be traded. In the recent mock draft, PFN’s Neal Driscoll projected the Buccaneers to select Alabama running back Najee Harris in the third round, which would easily boost their ability to run the ball as a team. Barber’s contract is done at the end of this season, and I can’t see them bringing him back, making his Buccaneers dynasty stock for 2020 almost worthless. He just hasn’t performed well enough. So for now, you’re either holding or buying Ronald Jones, depending on whether or not you own him, and playing the lottery again this offseason. With Barber, sell if you can, but it’s not very likely that you’ll get much in return.