The Washington Commanders will face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Wild Card Weekend. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Commanders and Buccaneers skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Are you looking for advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Wild Card Weekend Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Jayden Daniels, QB
Jayden Daniels completed 27 of 36 passes (75%) against the blitz during his current five-game win streak, drastically improved from his 49.1% rate over his previous five games. After a midseason swoon likely caused by ailing ribs, the growth we are seeing is ultra-impressive for a player navigating his first professional season.
He relied heavily on his legs in his NFL debut against these Bucs (16 carries for 88 yards and two scores, one of which came in garbage time), but we have a much more comfortable and versatile Daniels these days. Tampa Bay owns the lowest interception rate among playoff teams (1.1%, 29th across the NFL), making Daniels my pick as most likely to hit the rare double-bonus (300 passing yards and 100 rushing yards) stat line.
Baker Mayfield, QB
In 2021, Baker Mayfield completed 41.8% of his passes when under duress. His rate ticked up to 45.1% in 2022, to 49% in 2023, and up to 58% this season. He’s playing at a level above any ceiling I set for him this summer and that has him ready to go head-to-head with the explosive Jayden Daniels in what could be the most fantasy-friendly game of the week.
Mayfield has thrown multiple touchdown passes in five straight games, his second such streak this season. I have him penciled in to extend that streak in this spot against a Washington defense that can be had when they ramp up the aggression (24th in pressure rate when blitzing).
I do trust this Commanders defense more now than I did back in Week 1 when Mayfield lit them up for 289 yards and four scores through the air, but they still check in below average. If Daniels is pushing the Bucs to score, the fantasy points could pile up.
The nice part about rostering Mayfield in DFS is that your roster construction pretty much takes care of itself. This is a condensed offense (Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan are the only pass catchers that have my eye) and in going this direction, you get leverage off of what figures to be a very chalky Bucky Irving.
Pencil in a bring-back option (if you think the Bucs will have to air it out, maybe you believe they are playing from behind and that could mean a more friendly game script for Brian Robinson) and you’ve got the foundation for a reasonable lineup with some price flexibility.
Bucky Irving, RB
You’ve seen the highlights and heard the hype surrounding Bucky Irving. The Buccaneers were front-and-center last week in earning their playoff bid. There has been no shortage of coverage, yet it’s possible you’re not high enough on their rookie RB.
Soppe’s Wild Card RB rankings:
- Saquon Barkley
- Bucky Irving
- Derrick Henry
Yes, he’s been that good. If you extend his last seven healthy games over a 17-game schedule, we are talking about a running back with 1,700 rushing yards, 12 rushing touchdowns, 56 receptions, and 493 receiving yards. That’s a stat line that only Edgerrin James (2000) and LaDaininian Tomlinson (2006) have ever achieved for a season.
Irving is taking the league by storm and is playing in the game with the highest total of the week. This season, the Commanders own the second-worst red-zone defense among teams still playing, struggles fueled by the lowest success rate against the run of this group.
Consider this: Washington allowed 49.6% more yards per RB carry before contact than the league average this season (only the Panthers were worse). Rachaad White is a name you know, but he’s not currently a threat to take much usage away from Irving. There’s nothing standing in the rookie’s way of continuing his run of dominance, something his price point doesn’t reflect ($1,200 cheaper than Derrick Henry on DraftKings).
His scrimmage yardage prop opened at 108.5 yards, and I’m not sure it’s nearly high enough. I’ve locked in an over on that number and, in a hedge of sorts, I bet he and Brian Robinson Jr. combine for over 134.5 rushing yards, thinking that the team playing with a lead has plenty of success on the ground.
Brian Robinson Jr., RB
Brian Robinson Jr. is a fine player, but he’s nothing more than a leverage play this week. He managed just 40 yards on 12 carries in Week 1 as a part of this matchup, and that was without defenses having to allocate the attention to Jayden Daniels they now prioritize.
The problem for me with Robinson is the regression of his passing-game number. Last season, he turned 218 routes into 43 targets (19.7% rate). That growth was great to see, but with 25 targets on 185 routes this year (13.5% rate), we can’t count on much help should the game script work away from the ground game.
The contrarian side of this would be you taking a pro-Washington angle. The Commanders jumped out early in Week 13 against the Titans, and their running backs finished with 35 carries for 229 yards and a pair of scores. I don’t think that’s a likely outcome, but neither do most people, and that would allow you to gain on your competition.
If you do go in this direction, I’d suggest doubling down. If Washington goes up early and controls things, you’re going to want correlated exposure. There are two ways to do this, and I think you can build two lineups to cover both bases — you either embrace the volume that this puts on the Bucs’ passing game and stack Baker Mayfield or you embrace the Tampa Bay dropback count by rostering Washington’s defense.
This is certainly a 4D chess way of approaching the slate this week, but if winning were easy, everyone would do it, right?
Rachaad White, RB
It’s never a bad time for a blind resume. Here are three production lines over the past three weeks:
- Player A: 15.7% of team rushing yards and 13.9 PPR points as a pass catcher
- Player B: 13.3% of team rushing yards and 19.9 PPR points as a pass catcher
- Player C: 7.8% of team rushing yards and 13.4 PPR points as a pass catcher
All of those stat lines look roughly the same, and none of them are overly appealing. I think we can agree on that. Rachaad White is clearly one of them based on the construct of this article – would he be even remotely on your radar if not for a strong 2023 fantasy season?
The answer should be no.
This is the Bucky Irving show and things are going just fine under that plan – Tampa Bay is the third-highest-scoring offense since returning from their Week 11 bye.
- Player A: Hassan Haskins
- Player B: Javonte Williams
- Player C: White
Mike Evans, WR
It took some doing, but we got Mike Evans to his 1,000 yards last weekend, and he is very much trending in the right direction to make an impact in both Wild Card and postseason-long formats.
I find that players like this are the ones who swing those extended events. He’s a clear star, but with his team being involved in a coin-flip first game, there’s not the same level of excitement that a player like A.J. Brown generates, a similar player with a greater chance to advance.
Evans is the top-scoring PPR receiver since Week 13 who qualified for the playoffs, thanks in large part to earning 9.8 targets per game over that stretch. Based on his résumé, I see no reason to think that changes this week – 12.3% production over expectation for his playoff career with 25+ points in three of his past five postseason games.
If you want to get a little more specific in slicing the data, he’s thrived as a playoff favorite (23.5 PPG compared to 12.9 as an underdog) and that’s the situation he finds himself in this week.
Dragging down his DFS ownership number is the matchup with Marshon Lattimore. The two did battle on a twice-annual basis while Lattimore was with the New Orleans Saints, and the matchups have largely gone the way of the talented cornerback.
Evans’ career splits:
- Evans vs. Saints: 79 air yards per game with a 17.5% on-field target share
- Evans vs. the rest of the NFL: 125.8 air yards per game with a 24.3% on-field target share
Those numbers are enough to have me leery, but if I see a low enough ownership projection entering the weekend, I’d be willing to throw caution to the wind with a few lineups with the thought being that divisional games simply play differently. This version of Baker Mayfield is capable of keeping his WR1 fed, even in a difficult spot.
That said, I’m more likely to attack this game on the ground. I think the Bucs can control this game, and if that’s going to be the case, we should get a heavy dose of Bucky Irving. Personally, I like that angle with the Commanders passing attack rostered on the other end, though that plays into my projection for how this game will go.
If you like the Commanders, flipping my build on its head with a Mayfield-Evans-Brian Robinson core is plenty reasonable.
Terry McLaurin, WR
Terry McLaurin caught 13 touchdown passes during the regular season, more than his previous two best seasons combined. He’s been nothing short of special. Among the 35 receivers with 100 targets this season, he led the way in production relative to expectation this season (+32.2%).
The Falcons elected to cut off their nose despite their face and make it their mission to slow McLaurin down — they won the battle, but not the war.
McLaurin was held to just one catch, but the Commanders still won. If you remove that very aggressive defensive game plan, his production jumps to +39.6%, a rate that would be the second-best for a qualified receiver since 2016 (2023 Brandon Aiyuk holds the crown).
The Bucs don’t have a corner like A.J. Terrell Jr., nor have they shown the propensity to defend as the Falcons did in that Week 17 matchup. The bankable volume in the game with the highest projected point total should have McLaurin garnering as much ownership as anyone at the position.
From a game theory point of view, I think there’s something to a Jayden Daniels stack that doesn’t include McLaurin, but that’s more a conversation for huge contests that require creativity. If you’re strictly looking for what an optimizer is going to spit out, McLaurin is going to fit in most lineups this week.
And if you’re like me and believe Washington can pull off the minor upset, he’s a strong play in playoff-long formats as well.
Jalen McMillan, WR
I compared Jalen McMillan to Amon-Ra St. Brown in this space last week and he went out and lived up to expectations with the NFC South on the line (5-74-1 against the Saints).
By no means am I victory-lapping. The kid has been great for a month now, and I didn’t exactly take the stance that he would become St. Brown so much as highlight his path of a similar trajectory, but he’s every bit ready to produce at a consistent level.
He only saw one target way back in Week 1 when these teams squared off, but he made it count (32-yard touchdown), and he should get plenty of chances to make splash plays this week.
There is, however, one risk factor that has me nervous. Marshon Lattimore has done a great job blanketing Mike Evans in the past. If Washington operates with that as a defensive game plan, there’s a world in which McMillan is seeing a whole lot of (defensive) attention.
That thought process is enough to have me moving off of him more than I’d like, but this is a tough slate with a huge middle-tier of receivers. If you want to load up on three receivers in this price range and hope that two pay off in a big way, I have no problem going in this direction. But the way I’m building, I haven’t landed on much in the way of McMillan exposure.
It’s a terrifying life to live.
Zach Ertz, TE
There are just four tight ends who have more games this season with at least seven PPR points than Zach Ertz (12). That may seem like a low bar to clear, but is it?
Sam LaPorta didn’t get there.
Travis Kelce didn’t get there.
The veteran TE is spending 57% of his time in the slot, which has allowed Ertz to cash in on layup targets (5+ targets in six of his past eight games). Those looks project favorably in this specific spot against a Buccaneers defense that allows 9.1 yards per slot pass, the second-most in the NFL.
Ertz’s value has been the product of touchdowns (six over his past seven games), and while chasing scores can be dangerous, he’s in the right offense to do it. Washington has been the second-best red-zone offense since Week 10 (TD on 80% of red-zone trips).
The Commanders’ offense has grown, and Ertz has found his footing with time, giving me confidence that he rather easily clears the 3-28-0 stat line he gave us in Week 1 against the Bucs.
In postseason-long leagues, Ertz is a tough sell. At variable positions like this, I want game equity, and even if the Commanders were to pull off the upset this week (I think it’s live), I don’t see them getting past the Lions (assuming the Eagles handle the Packers).
Dalton Kincaid and Will Dissly are the lesser-thought-of tight ends who I’d rather gamble on in structures like that.
Cade Otton, TE
If you’ve been reading all season, thanks! If that’s the case, you’re likely not looking for hot Cade Otton takes — you know where I stand.
If not, thanks for joining us for the playoff run. I break down every player for every game for every week during the season, and I encourage you to hang with us into and through next season if you want to improve your fantasy knowledge base.
For those of you who are new here, I’m in the camp that Otton (when healthy; he’s currently battling a knee issue) is a fine play when Mike Evans is sidelined and a flat-out fade when that’s not the case. Tampa Bay’s WR1 is at full-go, and that makes me a full-no on their TE.
Otton’s production with Evans on the field, 2024:
- 0.84 yards per route
- 12.1% target share
- 19.1% red-zone target rate
Otton’s production without Evans on the field, 2024:
- 1.37 yards per route
- 17.7% target share
- 26.7% red-zone target rate
Otton turned two targets into five yards way back in the Week 1 meeting with the Commanders. Although much has changed since early September, Cardio Cade isn’t an investment I’m interested in making. If his ownership spikes because of the perceived favorable nature of this matchup, even better!