Games with a big spread can be tough to bet, so join me and make some same game parlay picks for this Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Buffalo Bills game that most expect to be one-sided.
We here at Soppe HQ like to encourage responsible gaming (take in the content at PFN betting if you want to be both responsible and sharp when it comes to your gaming), and in that vein, I’ll always offer you a trivia question off the top of these articles. Pose this question to a buddy you are watching the game with: answer correctly, and you pay for the SGP; misfire, and he/she is on the hook.
True or false: Stefon Diggs has the three highest single-season receiving yardage totals in Buffalo Bills history.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Buffalo Bills Odds
- Spread
Bills -9 - Moneyline
Buccaneers +340, Bills -440 - Total
43.5
This looks like a prime bounce-back spot for the Bills, and as much as I like being different from the field, I’m on board with this assumption.
The Bills rank second in red-zone offense while the Bucs rank 28th, giving the home team much more point equity on their deep drives and putting them in a position to be frontrunning.
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How can the Bills get a lead? Dalton Kincaid had the best game of his young career last week (eight catches for 75 yards in New England), and his usage suggests that performances like that might well be the norm — not the exception — moving forward.
In that loss, the rookie ran a route on 67.4% of his snaps, a rate far superior to Dawson Knox (48.9%). With Buffalo looking to pass when Kincaid is on the field, all catch and yardage props are live. For the season, he owns an aDOT that is 44.8% lower than Knox’s, an advantageous role against the fourth-blitz-happiest defense in the league.
Now that we have the Bills playing with a lead, it’s time to correlate a bring-back option, and for me, there is one very clear path in doing so. Nearly 74% of Tampa Bay’s yards come through the air (fourth-highest), and while the volume of passes is encouraging, I’m more interested in projecting what those passes look like.
For the season, the Bills defense has the fourth-lowest opponent aDOT, something that doesn’t happen by accident. When you combine pass rush with a bend-don’t-break mentality, that isn’t a mistake. Chris Godwin’s aDOT this season is 29.5% lower than Mike Evans’, a role that has enabled him to earn 30 targets over his past three games.
But wait, there’s more! Baker Mayfield’s aDOT this season is 32.4% lower in wins than losses — this team is more consistent when Mayfield takes his medicine, and on a short week, that is my expectation for the plan in this spot against a defense that misses the fourth-most tackles per game.
I don’t have faith in Rachaad White, and that makes all Godwin-related props essentially game-script-proof. Either they are getting blown out and are in a pass-first offense, or they are keeping this game close by moving the chains and supplementing the run game with low-risk throws. We cash in either way!
- Trivia Answer: False. Diggs has the top two seasons in franchise history (Eric Moulds has the third-highest). Diggs is the owner of the three top reception seasons in the history of the Bills.
- Same Game Parlay Pick: Bills 1H and ML, Dalton Kincaid over 40.5 receiving yards, Chris Godwin 60+ receiving yards
- Odds: +490 (at DraftKings)