This week’s Thursday Night Football matchup featuring the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Buffalo Bills has a lot of star power at the skill positions on both offenses — particularly Stefon Diggs, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin. But which player prop bets should you be targeting for this game? The PFN betting team gives their favorite Buccaneers vs. Bills player prop bets.
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Top Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Buffalo Bills Player Prop Bets To Target
Our team of betting experts gives out their favorite player prop bets for Buccaneers vs. Bills on Thursday Night Football.
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook unless noted otherwise.
Baker Mayfield Player Props
- Passing Yards: 231.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Pass Touchdowns: 1.5 (Over +150/Under -195)
- Pass Attempts: 34.5 (Over +100/Under -130)
- Pass Completions: 21.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
- Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -140/Under +110)
Blewis: Baker Mayfield has struggled the last two weeks, completing just 58% of his passes for for 481 yards on just 6.09 yards per attempt with one TD and two INTs.
It’s never easy on a short week, but this should be a more favorable matchup for Mayfield, even on the road. Last week, Mac Jones had by far the best game of his 2023 season against this depleted Bills defense, throwing for 272 yards, two TDs, 9.1 yards per attempt, and a 126.7 QB rating.
Since Tre’Davious White, Matt Milano, and DaQuan Jones have been out, the Bills have been 25th in EPA/play and 29th in success rate in defending the pass, and it’s not like they have faced a gauntlet of quarterbacks either.
Pick: Bakery Mayfield over 231.5 passing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Rachaad White Player Props
- Rushing Yards: 46.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Rush Attempts: 12.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
- Receiving Yards: 21.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
- Receptions: 3.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer: +165
- First Touchdown Scorer: +1000
Blewis: Rachaad White is totally game script dependent, as he isn’t a very efficient or explosive running back, averaging just 3.2 yards per carry for the season, and with just five carries for at least 10 yards (only Rhamondre Stevenson and Josh Jacobs have less of running backs with as many attempts).
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Tonight, White and the Buccaneers are 8.5-point road underdogs, and he has not cleared 46.5 rushing yards in a loss this season. In Tampa’s three losses, White has averaged 11 carries for 32.7 yards per game. Let’s play the under here.
Pick: Rachaad White under 46.5 rushing yards
Mike Evans Player Props
- Receiving Yards: 56.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Receptions: 4.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Longest Reception: 22.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer: +175
- First Touchdown Scorer: +1100
Blewis: In my pick for Mayfield, I mentioned the drop-off from the Bills’ passing defense in recent weeks, so if that holds up, that should line up for a big game from Mike Evans.
Evans and Godwin’s target shares have been relatively close this season, but Evans’ aDOT is significantly higher (Soppe gets more into that below). In six games this season, Evans has had a reception of at least 23 yards four times.
One of those games was against Detroit, in which Mayfield greatly struggled (I’m not expecting that from him tonight), and the other time was in a blowout win over the Saints, and he was going up against Marshon Lattimore, who plays Evans extremely well.
Pick: Mike Evans longest reception over 22.5 yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Chris Godwin Player Props
- Receiving Yards: 54.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Receptions: 5.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
- Longest Reception: 19.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer: +250
- First Touchdown Scorer: +1500
Soppe: Nearly 74% of Tampa Bay’s yards come through the air (fourth-highest), and while the volume of passes is encouraging, I’m more interested in projecting what those passes look like.
For the season, the Bills defense has the fourth-lowest opponent aDOT, something that doesn’t happen by accident. When you combine pass rush with a bend-don’t-break mentality, that isn’t a mistake. Chris Godwin’s aDOT this season is 29.5% lower than Evans’, a role that has enabled him to earn 30 targets over his past three games.
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But wait, there’s more! Mayfield’s aDOT this season is 32.4% lower in wins than losses — this team is more consistent when Mayfield takes his medicine, and on a short week, that is my expectation for the plan in this spot against a defense that misses the fourth-most tackles per game.
Pick: Chris Godwin over 54.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Josh Allen Player Props
- Passing Yards: 261.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Pass Touchdowns: 1.5 (Over -145/Under +114)
- Pass Attempts: 33.5 (Over -105/Under -125)
- Pass Completions: 22.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
- Rushing Yards: 23.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Interceptions: 0.5 (Over +100/Under -130)
Broyles: The Buffalo Bills offense needs a get-right game in the worst way. It was shocking at times to see the Patriots’ defense have their way with Josh Allen and the Bills’ passing game last Sunday. Nothing was in rhythm. The timing seemed to be a bit out of sorts. That is what Patriots head coach Bill Belichick can do to good offenses.
The Buccaneers’ defense is a top-10 unit against the run, so expect the Tampa front to remain stout in this one. The way to attack the Buccaneers is to throw to the receiver position, where the Bucs are the weakest. If we know this, offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey knows this, so expect a heavy pass-oriented game plan.
Picks: Josh Allen over 263.5 passing yards (-115 at DraftKings) and over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-160 at DraftKings)
James Cook Player Props
- Rushing Yards: 51.5 (Over -110/Under -120)
- Rush Attempts: 12.5 (Over -135/Under +105)
- Receiving Yards: 18.5 (Over -110/Under -120)
- Receptions: 2.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer: +130
- First Touchdown Scorer: +650
Broyles: The magic number for James Cook is 13. Every time Cook has carried the ball 13 times or more, he has eclipsed the rushing yards player prop of 51.5. He has hit that mark in four out of seven games, and the last time he didn’t hit the mark was when the Bills got boat raced in London against the Jaguars.
Expect a far different game script here as the Bills work to improve their passing game, spreading the ball around to their offensive weapons. Buffalo ices the game away in the second half once the Buccaneers’ defense is exhausted. The Bucs’ front seven is formidable, but Cook gets over the number.
Pick: James Cook over 51.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Stefon Diggs Player Props
- Receiving Yards: 87.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Receptions: 6.5 (Over -140/Under +110)
- Longest Reception: 26.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer: -115
- First Touchdown Scorer: +475
Broyles: If you have watched the Bills at any length, you already know how much Josh Allen and the passing game lean on Stefon Diggs. The Bills don’t have a Robin to his Batman. Diggs is the alpha, and everyone else chimes in.
Diggs has eclipsed 86.5 receiving yards in five of seven games so far in 2023. In the two games he didn’t hit the mark, the Bills throttled the Raiders by four touchdowns and didn’t need Diggs’ exploits, and the other was last week, and we mentioned how the offense was out of wack on Sunday.
Expect a bit of a squeaky wheel game as the Bills get Diggs going early and often in this one.
Pick: Stefon Diggs over 86.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Dalton Kincaid Player Props
- Receiving Yards: 41.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Receptions: 3.5 (Over -160/Under +124)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer: +200
- First Touchdown Scorer: +1000
Blewis: TE Dawson Konx is out indefinitely with a wrist injury, which has opened the door for rookie TE Dalton Kincaid to have a much bigger role in the offense.
So far this season, Kincaid has been extremely efficient when given the opportunity. He has caught 25 of 27 targets and has a 10% higher catch rate than the next closest player at the position with at least 20 targets this season.
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My one concern with taking the over on his receiving yards prop is that he has a very low average depth of target at 3.7 — which is 27th out of 29 tight ends with 20 or more targets this season. But that’s why I like his receptions over instead of his receiving yards, even if there’s a lot of juice, but FanDuel is offering a discount compared to DraftKings.
Pick: Dalton Kincaid over 3.5 receptions (-158 at FanDuel)