The Carolina Panthers made the decision to bench Bryce Young after Week 2 of the 2024 NFL season. Young started 16 games as a rookie and two games in his second season before getting benched by head coach Dave Canales. Less than 18 months after being selected first overall by the Panthers, after they traded up to get him, Young will now watch Andy Dalton start instead of him in Week 3.
Young’s NFL career is far from over, but this is a tough spot for a player who was highly thought of coming out of Alabama. Young joins an ignominious list of first-overall picks whose careers have not gone how they or the team drafting them would have hoped. Let’s compare Young’s career to this point to that of former Oakland Raiders’ QB, JaMarcus Russell.
How Has Young Performed So Far in His NFL Career?
Through 18 games, Young’s stats are underwhelming, to say the least. He has completed 59.3% of his passes, with 11 touchdown passes and 13 interceptions. His passer rating is 70.9, and his QBR is 33.4 while averaging 5.4 yards per attempt and posting a success rate of 35.8%.
There is nothing pretty about those numbers, and on the surface, they tell a pretty clear story as to why Young is no longer starting in the NFL. To add further context, his touchdown percentage is just 1.9%, while his interception percentage is 2.2%.
Over the last two years, only Kenny Pickett has a lower TD% when it comes to players who have thrown more than 300 passes, and only Mac Jones (0.83) has a worse TD/Int ratio than Young (0.85). Those numbers do not paint a good picture, but how do they compare to the numbers of other former first-overall selections who struggled in the NFL?
How Does Young’s Career Compare to Russell’s?
It is Russell who is often held up as the poster boy for first-overall selections gone wrong. Russell was selected first overall by the Raiders, going on to start 25 games and playing in a total of 31 games across a three-year career in Oakland, Calif. Unlike Young, Russell did not start on a consistent basis until his second season, having started just one game as a rookie before starting 15 in his second season.
Russell’s career ended with a completion rate of 52.1%, throwing 18 touchdowns and 23 interceptions. He had a passer rating of 65.2, a QBR of 19.8, an average of 6.0 yards per attempt, and a success rate of just 34.3%. All of those numbers, apart from yards per attempt, are lower than Young’s as of the end of Week 2 in 2024.
Russell did top Young in terms of TD%, finishing at 2.6%, but he also had a higher Int%, at 3.4%. That left him with a TD/Int ratio of 0.78, which is below Young’s so far in his career.
All told Young’s career to this point is better than Russell’s, but it is far closer than anyone would like. Of course, Young still has time to turn his career around, whether that be with the Panthers or another team. Unfortunately, that also means Young could yet finish with worse career statistics than that of Russell.
There have been several other first-overall picks at the quarterback position who have not panned out. Sam Bradford‘s numbers are hardly exciting, but they are above those of Young and Russell. He played for considerably longer than either while also having his career derailed by injury.
Of QBs drafted in the last 30 years, Tim Couch is perhaps the next closest to Young and Russell. He played for the Browns for five years, finishing with a 59.8% completion rate, a 3.7 TD%, 3.9 Int%, a 0.95 TD/int ratio, a 38.2% success rate, and a passer rating of 75.1. Again, those numbers still sit above that of Young and Russell while also being posted more than 20 years ago.
Couch and Russell played in a very different NFL in terms of the rules around QBs. Russell’s career came right around when we saw that shift really starting to take place, but the rules have continued to evolve to suit the passing game. Therefore, in that context, you could argue that, while Young is statistically better than Russell, the difference is not as large as it should be to definitively say Russell had a worse career.