Once again, the Cleveland Browns have one of the bleakest outlooks in the entire NFL. Trading multiple first-round picks and providing one of the largest guaranteed contracts in NFL history to Deshaun Watson has placed this team right back down to levels of low we have become accustomed to with the Browns.
The Baltimore Ravens are atop the AFC for yet another season following a masterclass performance from Lamar Jackson and the offense in 2024. Similar to Charles Barkley and many other 90s superstars who couldn’t get rings in the Michael Jordan era; the Ravens have yet to break through largely because of Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. Perhaps this year can be different.
Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
Ravens -19.5 - Moneyline
Ravens (-2400); Browns (+1200) - Over/Under
41.5 total points - Game Time
4:30 p.m ET - Location
M&T Bank Stadium
Browns vs. Ravens Preview and Prediction
According to TruMedia, there have only been nine games since 2000 with a point spread greater than the one between the Browns and Ravens in week 18. Using point spreads as a proxy for skill level, the greatest upset since 2000 was a 27-24 Miami Dolphins win over the 2019 New England Patriots in Week 17. Including the two games with a spread equivalent to this one, the favorite is 6-5 against the spread.
In my Saints Packers article, I used EPA (expected points added) as a means for comparing skill level and filtered by point spreads to see if there was historical precedent on either team covering the spread. I made one critical mistake in this comparison by shrugging off the differences in EPA between the Saints and Packers. Instead of using cutoff values; I have since learned it is much more wise to make direct comparisons.
Using PFN’s QB+, we can evaluate the difference between Bailey Zappe and other Browns starters this season to estimate what level of play we can expect from the Browns’ offense. Zappe’s QB+ score from his 2023 season (the last time he started) was a 45, which ranks dead last among all quarterbacks since 2019. Watson in the few games he started this season is a 45.1 which is the second-worst since 2019.
Knowing this, we can estimate the Browns to be somewhere in the range of -14.3 EPA on offense which is what they were when Watson started this season. The Ravens are at 10.3 EPA per game on the season and aren’t expected to rest starters because they need a win to clinch the AFC North for the second year in a row. Defensively, the Ravens are averaging 0.01 EPA per game and the Browns 2.25 per game.
The Browns’ defense ranks 11th in EPA; which makes them more of a competitive matchup than most point spreads in this range. The Ravens’ offensive advantage over the Browns’ defense is ranked ninth out of the 12 games with a spread over 19.5 points. The difference between the Ravens’ defense and the Browns’ offense is fourth of 12, not because the Ravens are dominant on defense but because the Browns are heavily lacking offensively.
MORE: PFN’s Picks and Predictions for Week 18
Due to such a small sample, it isn’t useful to use machine learning to make predictions. What we can do, however; is run correlations to see which insights are most valuable in such high spread games. The three highest correlations were the spread itself and the skill level of both offenses. It was very surprising to see that the individual offensive skill levels are more closely related to covering than the defense-adjusted levels.
Nevertheless, none of the offenses better than the Ravens covered the spread. To get an individual comparison, we can look to the Seattle Seahawks versus Jacksonville Jaguars in 2013 as the Seahawks were also 19.5-point favorites with a slightly stronger difference defensively but slightly weaker offensive difference. They did cover the spread in this game, winning 45-17.
Finally, we eliminate all games above a 22-point spread because that is a much stronger difference and it’s much harder to cover a spread of 27 points compared to 20. The favorite is 4-3 against the spread. Overall, there is historical precedent for both sides. I am going to lean toward Cleveland because I expect the Ravens to let off the gas in anticipation of the playoff.
My pick: Browns +19.5 (-105)