The first game of the 2023 postseason pits the Cleveland Browns against the Houston Texans, a game that highlights one of the game’s rising stars with an “elite” quarterback from years past. I’ve got a Browns vs. Texans same game parlay for you to consider in this interesting game with a +500 price tag attached to it.
Browns vs. Texans Betting Lines
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- Spread
Browns -2.5 - Moneyline
Browns -140, Texans +120 - Total
44.5
Browns vs. Texans Same Game Parlay
We here at Soppe HQ like to encourage responsible gaming, and in that vein, I’ll always offer you a trivia question off the top of these articles. Pose this question to a buddy you are watching the game with: answer correctly, and you pay for the SGP; misfire, and he/she is on the hook.
Trivia Question: Can you name one player who caught a TD pass from Joe Flacco in his last playoff start?
All of the trends line up for an ATS pick in this game, and that is exactly where I am going to start my SGP build.
Among the tidbits in that article, I find it interesting that Joe Flacco is 6-0 ATS in playoff openers. He has consistently punched above his weight class in this spot — coming in with good form and off of a rest week isn’t the situation where I bet against that trend.
While Flacco has been great, if Cleveland is going to advance (and cover), its elite defense needs to play up to their potential. They grade out among the best in a variety of stats, and the one I’m targeting, based partly on my projected game script, is their run-stuffing prowess.
For the season, only 39% of yards gained against the Browns have come on the ground, the fifth-lowest mark in the NFL this regular season. Devin Singletary has taken over this Houston backfield from Dameon Pierce, but are we sure he is matchup-proof to the level that sportsbooks are giving him credit for?
This season, Singletary doesn’t have a carry of at least 25 yards, making a single splash play unlikely to undo this bet. My faith in the Browns’ front four has me thinking they are making contact with Singletary around the line of scrimmage. With the Texans’ lead back averaging just 1.6 yards per carry after contact (a rate that ranks behind luminaries like Miles Sanders and Joshua Kelley), efficiency is something that I will bet against.
Fading both backfields — or at least a piece of both — is something I rarely do because they aren’t correlated. That said, “rarely” isn’t “never,” and the numbers point strongly in this direction.
The Browns haven’t been shy about betting on Flacco to elevate their 2023 ceiling, as they have the second-highest pass rate over expectation since the veteran took the reins.
In a matchup against the second-best yards-per-carry defense in a weatherproof spot at NRG Stadium, why wouldn’t we expect Cleveland to open things up in this spot?
MORE: NFL Playoff Bracket
Kareem Hunt (battling a groin injury that cost him practice time early in the week) doesn’t have a 10-yard rush since Nov. 19, and Cleveland running backs as a whole have lost yardage on 13.1% of carries.
The veteran back hasn’t had more than 12 carries in a game in over two months, a trend he might well have to reverse in this matchup if he is going to cost us this SGP.
One for the road when it comes to Hunt:
- Hunt: 23.7% of carries have come in the red zone
- Jerome Ford: 7.8% of carries have come in the red zone
Those carries hold fantasy football value, but they aren’t a major concern for me when targeting yardage props.
- Trivia Answer: In the 2014 AFC Divisional Round, Flacco’s Ravens lost to the Patriots, and Baltimore players with a TD reception in that game were Kamar Aiken, Steve Smith, and Owen Daniels
- Same Game Parlay Pick: Browns (-2.5), Devin Singletary under 64.5 rushing yards, Kareem Hunt under 24.5 rushing yards
- Odds: +500 (at DraftKings)
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