Betting on the NFL and playing in the NFL are not similar in a ton of ways, but getting off to a good start is something that we can all agree is a goal. This matchup between the Cleveland Browns and Houston Texans kicks off the 2023 postseason, and all of the betting trends are pointing in the same direction when it comes to picking a winner against the spread. We break them all down in our Browns vs. Texans prediction.
Browns vs. Texans Odds
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- Spread
Browns -2.5 - Moneyline
Browns -145, Texans +125 - Total
44.5
Browns vs. Texans Prediction
Before we look forward, we need to take a look back. Both of these teams enter this matchup in reasonable form (Cleveland won four straight prior to a meaningless Week 18 game, while Houston won three of their four games to round out the regular season) and reached double figures in the win department. A brief overview:
- Road: 3-5
- Point Differential: +34
- Scoring Offense: 23.3 PPG (10th)
- Scoring Defense: 21.3 PPG (13th)
- Home: 6-3
- Point Differential: +24
- Scoring Offense: 22.2 PPG (13th)
- Scoring Defense: 20.8 PPG (11th)
Joe Flacco is coming on strong for the Browns, and after getting Week 18 off for rest, why would we expect anything different? He lit up these Texans in Week 16 (368 yards, a franchise record 265 going to Amari Cooper) and finished the season averaging 7.9 yards per pass in five starts after being summoned off his couch to lead this team.
Flacco is 6-0 ATS for his career in playoff openers, with his team covering by an average of 19 PPG (unders are 4-2 in those six games if you’re curious).
MORE: Early NFL Wild Card Round Predictions and Picks Against the Spread
As for this specific matchup, the story of similar matchups works in Cleveland’s favor way as well. The Browns this season are 3-0 outright (3-0 ATS, 2-1 unders) when facing a top-10 defense in terms of yards per carry, a box the Texans check (second best, 3.5 YPC).
The Texans, on the other hand, are 0-4 outright (1-3 ATS, 3-1 unders) when facing a top-10 defense in terms of yards per play, a box the Browns check (second best, 4.6 yards per play).
The case for the Texans rests on the shoulders of rookie phenom C.J. Stroud, the presumptive Offensive Rookie of the Year, who hasn’t thrown an interception since mid-November and has completed 75.9% of his passes over the past two weeks with Houston’s season in the balance.
History isn’t impressed. Since Ben Roethlisberger, OROY-winning QBs are 0-3 outright when making the playoffs during their first season. Look a little deeper, and the similarities are eerie.
Those three quarterbacks (Matt Ryan, Robert Griffin III, and Dak Prescott) all lost to veteran signal callers (Kurt Warner, Russell Wilson, and Aaron Rodgers). They all were shut out in the third quarter, a potential sign pointing to the opponent possessing the ability to adapt faster than the rookie QB.
- Texans: 22nd in third-quarter offense
- Texans: 31st in third-quarter defense
Every number is pointing to the side of the Browns — are you in?
Browns vs. Texans Prediction: Browns -2.5 (-118 at DraftKings), Browns to win the third quarter (-115 at DraftKings)
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