The Cleveland Browns will face the Denver Broncos in Week 13. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Browns skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 13 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Jameis Winston, QB
Even in the snowy conditions and against an elite defense, Jameis Winston continued to inch up his in-pocket completion percentage on Thursday night against the Steelers (58.1% in Week 9, 61.9% in Week 11, and 63.6% in Week 12).
The exciting plays are fun, but if Winston is improving his production in these on-script spots, we might be onto something. The problem, of course, is the schedule. I’m not going to have him ranked as a fantasy starter in any of the next three weeks, and that includes Week 14’s rematch with Pittsburgh, a week in which six teams have their bye.
With the scheduling being what it is and Winston’s mobility limited at best, he’s going to need to be close to perfect to return top-15 numbers. I don’t see that happening (3-of-11 passing in the red zone in November), and that means that I’ll be enjoying the Winston experience from a distance as opposed to trusting him with the fate of my fantasy season in his hands.
Nick Chubb, RB
The two touchdowns, including the game-winner, were nice to see from Nick Chubb on Thursday night, but be careful. This season, just 4.1% of his carries have gained 10+ yards, far below his career norm entering this season (15.8%).
He’s not at the peak of his powers, but to my eye, he is running hard. That said, how far can a profile like Chubb’s go when he is picking up just 0.4 yards per carry before first contact?
The Browns have nothing but brutal matchups or explosive offenses left on their schedule, a concern for a script-dependent back like Chubb who has, checks notes, negative three receiving yards over the past month. There’s low-end Flex value here for as long as he holds the RB1 role in this offense, a role I don’t see leaving him — there’s just not much upward mobility in terms of my projections.
Jerome Ford, RB
Jerome Ford continues to work behind Nick Chubb, and if there was ever a chance for him to see his usage increase, it would have been last week in a poor-weather game with an elite defense on the other side. If there was a situation to start Chubb, that was it.
Browns RB usage, Week 12:
- Chubb: 63.6% snaps, 20 carries, and one target
- Ford: 36.4% snaps, four carries, and one target
It didn’t happen. If you want to roster Ford as a Chubb handcuff, knock yourself out. In an instance where he takes over the RB1 role, I think this offense is better positioned now for him to succeed than it was back in September, so there’s merit to hanging onto him for depth purposes.
Until that injury/rest situation, however, Ford doesn’t deserve to be anywhere near starting lineups.
Cedric Tillman, WR
Cedric Tillman saw four targets before being ruled out for the game with a concussion. In the small sample of Week 12, his on-field target share was his best of the season, a positive sign for those holding this stock, but I’m operating as if we will not have his services this weekend.
I found it somewhat interesting that Tillman was being used underneath to open last week (7.3 aDOT, his first game with an aDOT under 10.9 yards this season). That could increase his weekly stability via efficiency (2024: 59.2% catch rate), a net positive given the volume in which this team is throwing the ball with Jameis Winston under center.
I prefer Jerry Jeudy to Tillman, but there’s more than enough food at the table for both to eat when fully healthy.
Elijah Moore, WR
Elijah Moore disappointed on Thursday night (5.1 PPR points) and was hardly used in the slot, something that was previously his calling card.
- Week 6 at Philadelphia Eagles: 71.4% slot rate
- Week 7 vs. Cincinnati Bengals: 69.4%
- Week 8 vs. Baltimore Ravens: 66%
- Week 9 vs. Los Angeles Chargers: 67.8%
- Week 11 at New Orleans Saints: 67.3%
- Week 12 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: 30.8%
Was this the result of the wintery weather? Was it a reaction to the Cedric Tillman concussion? I tend to think this usage will be an outlier as opposed to the beginning of a pattern, and that keeps me optimistic. I don’t love the idea if it means he’s competing for perimeter looks with Jerry Jeudy/Tillman, but if the slot role returns, he can be a viable PPR option on a weekly basis.
In terms of completion percentage against, Denver is more vulnerable in the slot and that is why I think PPR managers can get away with Flexing Moore this week, even if the upside isn’t all that impressive.
Jerry Jeudy, WR
Jerry Jeudy has established himself as the most consistent Cleveland receiver as he has cleared 70 receiving yards in all four Jameis Winston starts, averaging 116 air yards per game in the process.
Does this mean he draws Patrick Surtain this week? Likely, but if there’s a corner in this league who scares Winston from throwing where he is most comfortable, I’ve yet to find him. The matchup comes with an underwhelming implied point total for the Browns, but the usage is strong enough to Flex Jeudy, whose on-field target share has increased in each game during the Winston era.
David Njoku, TE
The weather last Thursday night ended up hurting David Njoku as much as anyone, a touch of irony for a player who insisted on warming up in the elements without a shirt on. He caught just one of five targets in the upset win over the Steelers, a level of inefficiency that included a dropped touchdown that had the potential to bail out fantasy managers from a very underwhelming performance.
I’m not reading into the bad game. Njoku caught all nine of his looks the week prior in a weather-proof game against the Saints, so the connection with Jameis Winston isn’t something I fear. It’s worth noting that his average depth of target is up 66.7% with Winston under center compared to when Deshaun Watson was calling the shots.
The schedule isn’t pretty, and nothing but potential weather spots loom. I’m still not worried.
Njoku, in my opinion, remains the most stable force in Cleveland’s passing game and is deserving of your trust for the remainder of the season.
Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos Trends
Cleveland Browns
Team: Over the past month, the Browns are 2-2 with wins over the Ravens/Steelers and losses to the Chargers/Saints. Their point differential across those four games is -28.
QB: Even in the conditions and against an elite defense, Jameis Winston continued to inch up his in-pocket completion percentage (58.1% in Week 9, 61.9% in Week 11, and 63.6% in Week 12).
Offense: Cleveland picked up 53.3% of their third downs in the upset win over the Ravens in Week 8. That rate fell to 35.3% in Week 9, 23.1% in Week 11, and 10% in Week 12 (one-of-10).
Defense: In their first five games, the Browns allowed 6.2 net yards per pass attempt, a rate that has swelled to 8.3 since (up 33.9%).
Fantasy: The two touchdowns, including the game-winner, were nice to see from Nick Chubb, but be careful. This season, just 4.1% of his carries have gained 10+ yards, far below his career norm entering this season (15.8%).
Betting: The Browns have failed to cover 10 of their past 14 games played on extended rest. In 202, his boom/bust rate was 0% (he had the same number of 10+ yard runs as carries that were stopped for no gain).
Denver Broncos
Team: Could the Broncos post their first double-digit win season since 2015? They need to win three of five games to close the season. Based on lookahead lines, their average spread moving forward is +2.3 points.
QB: Bo Nix has completed 12-of-14 red zone passes (six touchdowns) over the past three weeks.
Offense: The Broncos allow pressure on just 30% of dropbacks, the sixth lowest in the NFL (they ranked 28th last season).
Defense: The Broncos were embarrassed in Baltimore, giving up 41 points during the Week 9 loss. They’ve allowed 41 points in the three weeks since.
Fantasy: Nix has three straight games with multiple passing touchdowns and 30 pass attempts with zero interceptions – no rookie has ever done it in four straight games (Daniel Jones and Lamar Jackson authored such games against the Browns this season).
Betting: The Broncos have seen eight of their past 10 home games played at home in Week 13 or later.