Browns cap space in 2021
If the 2021 NFL Salary cap is set at $175 million and every team is able to rollover all of their current 2020 cap space, here is a look at where every team in the league could enter the offseason.
(data gathered at https://t.co/ZzzOrFvbmu) pic.twitter.com/y7t8QMIV6J
— Erik Schlitt (@erikschlitt) July 25, 2020
At first glance, staying $29M under the cap seems pretty good. But things look darker when you consider all of the players that aren’t included in the 60 under contract here.
- Andrew Billings
- Kareem Hunt
- Karl Joseph
- Larry Ogunjobi
- Andrew Sendejo
- Rashard Higgins
- Kevin Johnson
These are the main culprits, all of which are key rotational players at the very least. If any of these players are extended at market value, that $29 million is going to dry up very, very quickly. And that’s not including any free agent signings that may be made (although don’t expect much of a splash next year, for obvious reasons).
Difficult decisions lie ahead
Cleveland is also going to be forced to part with some quality players. Sheldon Richardson will have a $13.66M cap hit, but the team would save $12M by cutting him. Richardson is good, but with how much he’s set to make, moving on is a near certainty. With Billings and Ogunjobi also free agents after the season, rookie Jordan Elliott is the only defensive tackle on the roster guaranteed to be with the team in 2021. One of Billings or Ogunjobi (I would argue Billings due to age, production, and fit) seems likely to be kept around, but one thing is for sure; the DT depth chart will look very different a year from now.
Case Keenum’s cap hit is $7.33M, and would save the Browns $3.5 million if cut post-June 1st. With zero dead cap in 2022, it seems like the plan was to have him back up Mayfield for two seasons, but if the Browns need that cap space in 2021, that plan could change quickly.
New head coach Kevin Stefanski didn’t use three wide receivers very often with the Minnesota Vikings, but it’s still a starter position in today’s pass-happy NFL. Higgins may very well be somewhere else in 2021. and while rookie Donovan Peoples-Jones has loads of talent, he fell to the sixth round for a reason, and needs to prove himself before being counted upon.
Myles Garrett is one of the league’s very best EDGEs. Olivier Vernon is a very good compliment, and Adrian Clayborn is a great rotational piece. But the fact remains that the Browns do not have a long-term partner for Garrett on the roster. That will need to be addressed next offseason.
The linebacker room is one of the weakest in the NFL, with rookie Jacob Phillips, second-year players Mack Wilson, and Sione Takitaki, and free agent B.J. Goodson competing for two starting spots. None have proven to be reliable in coverage, and it’s unlikely that any will be viewed much differently in 2021. The Browns had multiple chances to add to the group in free agency this year, but have yet to do aside from Goodson. The LB position is marginalized in Joe Woods’ defense, but it is still in need of a significant upgrade.
Cory Kinnan took a look at how Phillips and Wilson compare to each other for PFN Browns.
Woods wants to eventually run a base dime defense. In order to do that, Cleveland will need to invest heavily in its secondary. Denzel Ward is an excellent young shutdown corner. Greedy Williams has plenty of potential opposite of him, but needs to rebound from a subpar rookie season. After those two, there isn’t much else on the cornerback depth chart. Free agent Kevin Johnson had a good 2019 with the Buffalo Bills and is expected to play nickel, but has limited experience there and has struggled with injuries throughout his entire career. He’s also on a one-year deal.
The same goes for the safety group. Rookie Grant Delpit was a steal in the second round and should end up as a Pro Bowl-caliber player. Free agents Karl Joseph and Andrew Sendejo have both been effective in specific roles, and Joseph could end up sticking around if he can stay healthy. Second-year man Sheldrick Redwine didn’t play a ton as a rookie, but when he did, he showed flashes of excellent instincts and good tackling. CB and S will be the two most important positions on defense for Cleveland (as they should be), and while the NFL Draft is of course the preferred place to add talent, free agency will need to be utilized as well. Plus, Ward is due for an extension soon, which will greatly affect how Cleveland’s money is utilized.
The biggest, and most painful decision that Cleveland will have to make is choosing between Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr. Even before the pandemic changed everything, it was going to be difficult to allocate over $30 million to two WRs. Now, it’s all but impossible. The value that Landry provides in the locker room as a leader is invaluable, but there’s no arguing that he’s a better player than a healthy Beckham. Cutting Landry would save $11.8 million, and it’s unlikely another team will be willing to take on a slot receiver with his $14.8 cap hit.
However, Landry’s salary is not guaranteed in 2021 or 2022. The ideal scenario would be for Berry to do what he did with Vernon this offseason; Vernon was in the final year of his deal with a high cap hit of $15.5M, but with none of it guaranteed; that’s why the Browns had been linked to EDGEs like Jadeveon Clowney and Everson Griffen throughout free agency. Vernon’s injury history combined with his cap hit made it a good idea to at least explore the idea of replacing him with a cheaper and more reliable option. Instead, Vernon agreed to restructure his contract, reducing his cap hit to a much more reasonable $11M, in exchange for the team essentially guaranteeing the entirety of that.
Landry could easily be cut after the season, and he’d have an extremely difficult time finding a team willing to pay him more than $10M with the reduced cap. An ideal compromise would be to reduce his cap hit to the $10M-$11M range, while guaranteeing the final two years of his contract. He’d be able to stay with his best friend and a QB he loves, and continue to provide the type of leadership that all good teams require.
As far as Baker Mayfield goes, as The Dawgland’s Jack Duffin explains, the Browns are much better off exercising his fifth-year option and letting him play out his rookie contract before making a decision on an extension, no matter how he plays in 2020. There is still reason to be confident in Mayfield rebounding, but even so, the potential benefit of saving $3M-$4M yearly on his next deal is not worth the risk of ending up with a Colin Kaepernick or Ryan Tannehill situation.
Bottom line
Dealing with the ramifications of decreased revenue due to COVID-19 will not be easy for any NFL team. But the Cleveland Browns are well-equipped to deal with this challenge, both because of their rollover surplus specifically designed to help combat potential situations like this, and because of the smart people currently running the team. The Browns cap space in 2021 is currently at around $29M, but that will not last. Things are going to look very different one year from today, but it will be fun to see how they turn out.