The Cleveland Browns will face the Baltimore Ravens in Week 18. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Browns and Ravens skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 18 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Lamar Jackson, QB
Lamar Jackson’s average QB+ this season (82.9) is well above what he posted a season ago (77.1). We didn’t create that metric to be a predictive one for fantasy purposes, but what more can I tell you on the number-compiling front that you’re not already aware of?
The reigning MVP has 13 top-10 finishes this season and routinely looks downright indefensible. He has both a 20-yard run and a 40-yard completion in three of his past four games. The Browns lead the league in pressure rate (41.3% of dropbacks), and I’m not sure that’s a positive against Baltimore.
If you have Jackson, you’re playing him and are thrilled that he has the motive to go out and dominate for another week. If you’re facing him — you’re spending your weeknights praying to the fantasy gods for leniency.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson, QB
Week 18 Status: PLAYING
“If you have nothing good to say, say nothing at all.”
I was raised with that quote, and Dorian Thompson-Robinson is really pushing my limits. He leads the league in pass attempts (81) over the past two weeks, and leading a professional sport in anything that isn’t directly negative is kind of a good thing, isn’t it?
He weighed down Jerry Jeudy with targets over the weekend, and that is realistically all we are asking for. But, my goodness, has it been a struggle? He’s the first quarterback since Chris Simms (Weeks 14-15, 2005) to fail to throw a touchdown pass and fail to reach 175 passing yards while completing 20+ passes in consecutive games.
Reaching NFL history – it may not be positive, but at least it’s a fun note for a two-game stretch that has to be labeled as a disaster, even for a franchise that suffered through seven Deshaun Watson games this season.
Bailey Zappe, QB
While Bailey Zappe is slated to get the start at QB for the Browns in Week 18, head coach Kevin Stefanski previously suggested that he expected Thompson-Robinson (calf) to also see some work versus Baltimore.
With that in mind, Zappe isn’t a high-percentage fantasy option this weekend, however he does represent a potential lineup pivot for fantasy managers dealing with scenarios where their signal callers may be rested or limited.
Derrick Henry, RB
If there’s a week for a true Derrick Henry explosion spot, this could be it. The Browns allow the fourth-most yards after contact per carry on the ground this season and rushing touchdowns at the fourth-highest rate.
Henry had 73 rushing yards and a touchdown on 11 carries in the first game with Cleveland (Week 8), an efficient performance that was undone a bit by a game script that worked against him.
I’m not worried about such limitations this week, and that has me giving him a great chance to record his sixth top-five finish of the season.
Getting a late peak from Henry is nothing new. He finished the 2022 regular season with four straight games north of 125 scrimmage yards and dismantled the Jaguars for 153 yards and a score on the ground in Week 18 last season.
Justice Hill, RB
Week 18 Status: OUT
Justice Hill (concussion) was inactive last week and will not play this week. If he were playing, it wouldn’t have projected as the type of game in which his specific skill set would have been meaningfully used.
For the season, he has more targets (51) than rush attempts (47), and that would have held value in the right game script; it’s just not something I see happening at home with the opportunity to win the division.
Derrick Henry is fully healthy and should be leaned on heavily this weekend. When that’s the case, there is never much of an avenue for Hill to get his hands on the ball.
D’Onta Foreman, RB
D’Onta Foreman is likely to serve as the Browns’ lead back in Saturday’s game against the Ravens with Cleveland having ruled out Jerome Ford (ankle) and Pierre Strong (concussion) for the contest.
The Browns also have John Kelly on the 53-man roster and could look to elevate one of Aidan Robbins or Jacob Kibodi from the practice squad in Week 18, but Foreman is Cleveland’s most experienced running back by far and thus projects to see most of the work, at least on early downs.
After Ford left early in this past Sunday’s 20-3 loss to the Dolphins due to an ankle injury, Foreman finished as the Browns’ rushing leader with 49 yards on 13 carries. He was also targeted twice across his 37 snaps but failed to record a reception.
Rashod Bateman, WR
If you’re not on Rashod Bateman for the 1-12-0 stat line, do you even deserve to be there for the 2-43-1 line?
This is the life of a Bateman manager. He has just a 15.3% on-field target share this season, and that is why I fade him with confidence weekly. However, there’s no denying the upside that comes with this profile.
For the season, Bateman is averaging 25.8 yards per touchdown reception, a number that holds some weight given that he has eight scores this season. Trying to pin the tail on those weeks is a headache-inducing activity, and it certainly wasn’t the case in Week 8 in Cleveland (one catch on five targets for 28 yards), but it’s not hard to talk yourself into taking a flier on a player like this in Week 18.
Cleveland owns the eighth-worst deep pass touchdown rate against this season and sixth worst opponent passer rating on those throws, making them as good a target as any if you’re going to roll the dice on Bateman. He’s more of a DFS pick for me than anything – one that I can hit big with if he happens to be on the right side of a few bombs.
Due to the nature of this week, he’s flirting with my top 35 at the position, a ranking that is more reflective of how impactful big play potential is in a goofy week than my confidence in this specific player.
Zay Flowers, WR
The Ravens are playing for keeps this week, and while it’s been an up-and-down season for Zay Flowers, I think you’re playing him with a reasonable amount of confidence on Saturday.
Flowers’ PPR fantasy points per game are identical to where they stood during his rookie season, but his aDOT is up 23.9%, and his usage in valuable spots has spiked.
Those are positive notes to have for a profile, and when you consider that he is facing the sixth-worst YAC defense in the NFL, Flowers has more than a few ways to burn the Browns and provide you with an impactful stat line.
Baltimore was upset in Cleveland back in Week 8, but it certainly wasn’t the fault of their WR1 (7-115-0 on a 34.3% target share). Counting on that level of production again may be a bit optimistic, but I like Flowers’ chances to score 15+ fantasy points, which lands him inside my top 20 wide receivers this week.
Jerry Jeudy, WR
Week 18 Status: PLAYING
Jerry Jeudy joined Josh Gordon (2013) and Kellen Winslow (2007) as the only Browns to earn 18 targets in a game last week (he was also the third Brown to catch 12 passes in a game, interestingly enough, the first to do both).
The high-usage game is enough to justify labeling Jeudy as a WR2, a rarity for a player in a meaningless spot opposing a team with everything to play for. I have my concerns about how valuable each individual target will be with Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center, but no self-respecting math person can steer clear of usage like this in a potential catchup spot against a defense that is more vulnerable through the air than on the ground.
Elijah Moore, WR
Elijah Moore is in the middle of about as bad a run as you’ll see from a receiver that had a window of fantasy relevance this season when the Jameis Winston experience was in full effect.
Moore’s production over the last three games:
- 99 routes
- 16 targets
- Five catches
- 21 yards
Some receivers are QB-proof, but it’s important to remember that the vast majority are not.
Moore is recent proof of this and he’s easy to avoid now, but don’t forget the lesson next season and why I always end up adding a player like Rashod Bateman over a Nick Westbrook-Ikhine type.
If I’m going to embrace variance at a high level, I’m going to look to limit the number of moving pieces where I can, and the QB is the logical place to start.
Cedric Tillman, WR
Week 18 Status: OUT
Tillman hasn’t played since suffering a concussion in Week 12, and while he’s practiced some since, we were always looking at a long shot for Week 18, especially since the Browns are contending for the number one overall pick.
The Ravens’ defense has been better of late, and I’d like to redirect you to the rare statistical stylings of Dorian Thompson-Robinson from above. This isn’t a passing game you should feel any obligation to invest in, period.
Jordan Akins, TE
Jordan Akins is expected to serve as the Browns’ starting tight end Saturday in Baltimore, with David Njoku (knee) ruled out for the season finale.
While Njoku was sidelined for last Sunday’s 20-3 loss to the Dolphins, Akins saw an expanded profile on offense. He played 44 of the Browns’ 79 snaps on offense in the loss, finishing with six catches for 49 yards on eight targets.
Given that Thompson-Robinson (calf) dropped back a whopping 48 times in Week 17, Akins’ eight targets could be more difficult to replicate in Week 18 if the heavily-favored Ravens are able to dominate the time of possession and keep the clock moving.
Akins will also be working with a new starting quarterback in the finale, as Bailey Zappe is getting the nod over Thompson-Robinson.
Mark Andrews, TE
Mark Andrews has scored on 16.4% of his targets this season, a massive surge from his rate over the previous two years (6.3%). I could bore you with the “why this is unsustainable” math and we will get there this offseason, but realistically, you’re only worried about this week. With that in mind, I have no issue with betting on him.
He and Isaiah Likely caught all nine of their targets (83 yards, TD) in the Week 8 loss in Cleveland, usage that I think is here to stay. Touchdowns generally aren’t sticky, but when an experienced option sees an end-zone target in five straight games for one of the league’s most efficient offenses, it’s not a bad bet.
Andrews is my TE6 this week – it’s been a wild ride from elite option, to drop candidate, and ultimately a lineup lock.
Isaiah Likely, TE
I’m as intrigued as anyone as to how these playoff teams are giving us little hints as to what could be coming. Isaiah Likely was on the field for a season-high 77% of Baltimore’s snaps last week in the blowout of the Texans. While some of that was undoubtedly the result of game flow, I maintain my thought that Todd Monken is going to get this physical mismatch on the field more for his third NFL postseason.
None of that helps you this week. Even with the extended playing time, Likely’s role held a sub-three-point projection, making him an impossible sell. With Mark Andrews gobbling up all of the valuable looks, Likely needs volume to matter. We are a long way away from projecting him to get that.
I’ll probably be holding Likely prop tickets when the Ravens take the field this postseason, but my willingness to be bold with him doesn’t start in Week 18.
David Njoku, TE
Week 18 Status: PLACED ON INJURED RESERVE
Njoku was inactive last week with a knee injury. The team is on the hook for another season, so they aren’t chancing anything heading into the offseason. That’s why they placed Njoku on injured reserve.
If the Browns were playing him, you would have wanted to follow suit (10+ targets in each of his past three appearances). It’s worth noting that Njoku averaged 9.9% more PPR points per target without Deshaun Watson under center this season.