The Cleveland Browns have had a strange season, going just 3-14 but beating two playoff teams in the process. However, a 1-6 start and a 0-6 run in the last five weeks have left the Browns in contention for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
The Browns entered the week third in the projected draft order for next April, behind the New England Patriots and Tennessee Titans but just ahead of the New York Giants. All four of those teams were tied at 3-13, with the strength of schedule (SOS) tiebreaker separating them.
Let’s examine the current standings in the 2025 NFL Draft order and the scenarios for how Cleveland can end up with the No. 1 overall pick when the draft begins in Green Bay next April.
Update: The Tennessee Titans have clinched the No. 1 overall pick. The Browns have the second pick, the Giants at No. 3, and the Patriots at No. 4.
What Are the Cleveland Browns’ Scenarios for Picking No. 1 Overall in the 2025 NFL Draft?
After their loss in Week 18, the Browns are currently sitting atop the projected 2025 NFL Draft order based on their 17.6 win percentage. However, that will all change if the Patriots or Titans lose on Sunday. They would both move to a 3-14 record and tie the Browns on win percentage.
When multiple teams are tied with the same winning percentage, the NFL Draft tiebreakers work by giving the highest pick to the team with the lowest SOS and the lowest pick to the team with the highest SOS.
In terms of the teams that can finish 3-14, that means the Patriots are first (0.467 SOS), the Titans second (0.515 SOS), the Browns third (0.544 SOS), and the Giants fourth (0.551 SOS).
Those SOS gaps are large enough that if all four teams lose, the order cannot change. The closest any two teams can get is the Browns and Giants, who could tie in terms of SOS. However, with New York having beaten Cleveland in Week 3, the Browns would have the higher pick of the two, as that is the next level on the NFL Draft tiebreaker ladder.
What this means is that the Browns’ scenario for the No. 1 pick is simple in theory. They need the Patriots and Titans to either win or tie in Week 18. In reality, that’s much more complex because New England and Tennessee may not be going all out to win in Week 18.
Both head coaches — Jerod Mayo and Brian Callahan — have said they will try to win, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them pass up points to go for it on fourth down more than they might have previously. We’ve seen teams who are hesitant to tank be more aggressive on third and fourth down than they might otherwise, which will alter their winning probability compared to a normal game.
Further complicating matters is that neither the Patriots nor Titans opponents have anything to play for in Week 18. The Buffalo Bills have clinched the No. 2 seed in the AFC, and the Houston Texans have clinched the fourth spot. If both teams rest players, that will increase New England and Tennessee’s chances of winning in Week 18.
The Texans have said they won’t rest players but may well do so in the second half. Meanwhile, the Bills look set to start Josh Allen but rest other starters. Additionally, we have no idea how long Allen will play. Currently, our simulations give the Patriots a 50% chance of beating Buffalo and the Titans a 48% chance of defeating Houston.
This all means that, according to our metrics, the Browns have a 24% chance of getting the No. 1 overall pick. They also now know they cannot pick any lower than third in the 2025 NFL Draft.