The Cleveland Browns will face the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 16. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Browns and Bengals skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 16 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Joe Burrow, QB
Last week, Joe Burrow tied the NFL record for consecutive games with 250+ passing yards and 3+ passing TDs (six). His numbers are that of a fantasy MVP — an award he can win without team success, unlike the NFL MVP honor.
I don’t think the Bengals need an excuse to put their trust on the shoulders of their quarterback. But the fact that the Browns are the top EPA rush defense only encourages Cincinnati to lean into their heavy pass rate over expectation game plan.
In Week 7, the Bengals’ run game never got going (25 carries for 59 yards) in this matchup, and I think that’s great when it comes to projecting their Week 16 passing numbers. In my opinion, either the rushing efficiency improves and frees up downfield options or Cincinnati forgoes the run altogether.
I’ll take either!
Dorian Thompson-Robinson, QB
Dorian Thompson-Robinson got a chance to impress earlier this season, and…well, he failed.
Against the woeful Bengals defense, DTR completed just 11 of 24 passes for 82 yards and two interceptions. In that loss, he did pick up 44 yards on the ground, and if you’re going to be in any capacity on him in the rematch, his athleticism will have to factor in.
Cleveland’s offense will look very different from the overly aggressive stylings of Jameis Winston. While that might mean fewer turnovers, I expect fewer scoring chances, which drags down the projectable value of all involved.
Jameis Winston, QB
Jameis Winston has been benched and all excitement for Cleveland’s skill players goes with him. While it’s the less fun option, there’s no denying that the move is a logical one.
- Week 12 vs. Steelers: 2.4 points per drive
- Week 13 at Broncos: 2.1 points per drive
- Week 14 at Steelers: 1.2 points per drive
- Week 15 vs. Chiefs: 0.5 points per drive
Dorian Thompson-Robinson takes over under center and will look to keep the Browns’ offense on the field in an effort to shorten the game against the explosive Bengals.
Chase Brown, RB
Chase Brown has at least 20 touches in five of his past six games and continues to look the part of an elite fantasy asset. Whether it is chunk plays on the ground or uncovering in a scramble situation, Brown fits this offense like a glove. Expecting the Browns to slow him twice in one season is not something I’m willing to do (15 carries for 44 yards in Week 7 with 22 of those yards coming on a single burst).
I like the chances of this 24-year-old extending his streak of top-10 RB finishes to seven straight games in what should be a comfortable Cincy win (check back for the betting picks article this weekend).
Nick Chubb, RB
Nick Chubb broke his foot over the weekend, bringing to a close what has been a lost season for anyone who rolled the dice on him off of last season’s knee injury (3.3 yards per carry).
The team doesn’t expect this injury to require surgery, and that’s good news, but we are firmly in a spot where we will need to see more than him squatting a small village to reinvest this summer with the injuries piling up on a soon-to-be 29-year-old body that has north of 1,500 NFL touches.
Jerome Ford, RB
Jerome Ford, welcome back into our lives!
He took over for Nick Chubb last week and turned nine touches into 104 yards, highlighted by a 62-yard touchdown. We aren’t going to get anything close to that level of efficiency moving forward, but a versatile skill set is awfully appealing next to a conservative backup quarterback.
The Bengals are the eighth-worst run defense in terms of success rate, and I expect them to see a heavy dosage of this feisty 25-year-old. When injury reports are finalized, I expect to have Ford ranked as an RB2, not bad for someone who very possibly was on your waiver wire entering this week.
Ja’Marr Chase, WR
Ja’Marr Chase is chasing the receiving triple crown and, with three weeks remaining, already has an elite stat line under his belt (102-1,413-15).
The only interesting note I can provide here that you’re not already aware of is this simple fact: the last time Chase was held out of the end zone was against the Raiders in a double-digit win — he went for a casual 11-264-3 stat line the next week.
I’m just sharing facts.
It’s also fun to note that the Browns have the highest opponent average depth of throw this season, half a yard ahead of the field. If there was ever a tandem to challenge them downfield …
Tee Higgins, WR
Tee Higgins has nine touchdown catches in his past 12 regular-season games (6+ in four of his five NFL seasons). My guess is that may come as a bit of a surprise because it’s been a bumpy ride with a no-show in Week 14 on prime time, five DNPs this season, and Ja’Marr Chase’s excellence.
For the most part, when Higgins has been on the field for his career, he’s been excellent. I don’t expect that to change this weekend against a Cleveland team that he earned one-third of the targets against (4-82-1 stat line) back in Week 7.
I have Higgins as a lineup lock without any thought, given how well Burrow is playing. He stands to move inside of my top 15 should the Browns name Jameis Winston as their starter this week.
Yep, the rare “WR whose fantasy stock is impacted by the opposing QB” situation based on projected game environment.
Jerry Jeudy, WR
Jerry Jeudy has cleared 1,000 yards for the first time in his career, riding the Jameis Winston momentum to seven straight games with either 70 yards or a touchdown.
I like how that sounds and the fruit that it has given us recently, but reporting out of Cleveland has Dorian Thompson-Robinson taking over this offense. That introduces similar weekly risk without the benefit of the high-end ceiling.
DTR only has 146 NFL passes on his résumé, but a 6.0 career aDOT is downright problematic for a player like Jeudy that can win down the field. This change under center shook up my expectations for this passing game. I had Jeudy as the clear-cut top option with David Njoku (if active) a clear No. 2 and Elijah Moore a distant third.
Now, Njoku is a unique case because of the position he plays, and while I still prefer Jeudy to Moore, he’s no longer to be looked at as a lineup lock.
If you’re starting any Brown this week, it’s a play against the fourth-worst points-per-drive defense more than anything, and that’s a reasonable angle to take.
Elijah Moore, WR
DFS play of the week?
It’s possible. Elijah Moore is pretty clearly the underneath option in this Cleveland offense, and that role has spiked in value over the last two weeks.
First of all, the matchup. Cincinnati’s defense isn’t good nor are they even really trending in a great direction, but they are at least forcing the opposition to check down. Twice in the past three weeks, the Bengals have seen their opponent’s average depth of throw check in under 5.5 yards (through 12 weeks, they had an opponent aDOT under 6.4 yards just once).
The change under center also puts food on Moore’s plate. The food might not be fully cooked, but at least it’s there, and that gives him a chance to eat. Since the beginning of last season, the Browns have had three different quarterbacks appear in at least 10 games:
- Deshaun Watson: 81.4 passer rating, 3.1% TD rate, and 8.2 aDOT
- Jameis Winston: 80.6 passer rating, 4.4% TD rate, and 8.9 aDOT
- Thompson-Robinson: 42.6 passer rating, 0.7% TD rate, and 6.0 aDOT
Moore has been close to invisible in three of his past four games, and that could well be the case again this week, but I bumped him inside of my top 50 at the position (and on my DFS WR punt radar) on Tuesday when the quarterback change became official.
Cedric Tillman, WR
The Browns are “hopeful” that Cedric Tillman can return from a concussion that has resulted in three missed games, but I can’t imagine a situation in which you’re rolling the dice on a player like this in an offense that went from recklessly aggressive to mind-numbingly conservative with their change under center.
Tillman racked up 81 yards in the first meeting with the vulnerable Bengals, and we know this secondary can be had. That’s not the point. The point is that I’m not risking three months of hard work to reach the playoffs on a receiver who might hopefully be healthy in the WR3 role for an offense on a dead team and an underwhelming QB.
Other than that, I don’t have anything wrong with Tillman in Week 16.
Mike Gesicki, TE
Mike Gesicki has run a route on 96.7% of his snaps this season and that’s great. The Bengals have no interest in asking him to block, and that’s generally a good box to check. But getting on the field is also a positive — that is not currently a strength for their tight end.
That’s now consecutive games with under 20 routes run and 10 games this season with a sub-50% snap share. It was good to see that Joe Burrow’s first two completions in Tennessee went to Gesicki, but we are talking about trying to trust a TE with a limited role that has resulted in just one finish inside of the top 15 performers at the position since September.
There are tight ends in explosive offenses that I’d rather take a flier on than Gesicki.
There are backup tight ends walking into more featured roles that I’d rather take a flier on than Gesicki.
You don’t have to dig this deep.
David Njoku, TE
David Njoku couldn’t practice all week due to a hamstring injury, and while the team kept him listed as “questionable” up until Sunday, he seemed like a long shot to play all long.
His practice habits this week will again be worth monitoring, especially with this a lost season for the Browns. They need all of their key options healthy to open next season as they (presumably) intend to go back to the well-compensated Deshaun Watson under center.
That said, if Njoku clears the health hurdles, you play him and feel good about it. He lit up this vulnerable Bengals defense back in Week 7 (10-76-1 on a 29.2% target share). With three top-five finishes at the position over his last four games, the athletic profile he provides this passing game with is worthy of lineup-lock status.
