The Denver Broncos‘ offense is in an intriguing spot this season, with rookie Bo Nix set to start at quarterback.
Courtland Sutton was a touchdown-dependent fantasy asset last year, but should managers be wary of him with a rookie at QB? Additionally, with Jerry Jeudy gone, can either Marvin Mims or Troy Franklin step up and provide fantasy relevance in a WR2 or WR3 role for the Broncos?
Courtland Sutton Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR Fantasy Points: 189.8 (121.8 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 67.9
- Receiving Yards: 891.6
- Receiving TDs: 5.2
Typically, in the latter stages of fantasy drafts, the wide receivers are either struggling veterans, guys who were never good or unproven young players. In 2024, there are actually a fair amount of older players who actually have plausible upside.
I’m not saying Sutton is likely to pan out, but he sure carries more potential than your typical late-round veteran WR.
Since 2021, Sutton has averaged 9.5 fantasy points per game in 38 games, with Jeudy active against 15.2 fantasy points per game in games without Jeudy. Jeudy is now in Cleveland.
If Sutton can merely split the difference in 2024, he will be a tremendous value at his WR49 ADP, No. 93 overall, which represents the lowest mark of his career. It’s just difficult to project a career year at age 29.
Sutton has another obstacle in his path as well — his quarterback. There’s not a ton of competition for targets, which should enable Sutton to command a lot of them. However, they will be coming from rookie Bo Nix.
Although the Broncos spent a first-round pick on the Oregon QB, Nix was the sixth quarterback drafted. Could he surprise as a rookie? Perhaps. But it’s hard to get overly excited about what Sutton can do on an offense likely to run a lot with a mobile rookie QB.
I have Sutton ranked as my WR49, which is two spots below his WR47 ADP — an irrelevant distinction. In that right spot, I’m not opposed to taking him. However, generally, I want to take chances on younger, less established players who have wider ranges of outcomes.
It’s hard to envision a scenario where Sutton ends up being a difference-maker. There are several young WRs going around him that have greater upside. Those are the players that fantasy managers should look to draft.
– Jason Katz, Fantasy Football Analyst
Marvin Mims Jr. Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR Fantasy Points: 145.7 (99.1 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 46.7
- Receiving Yards: 799.6
- Receiving TDs: 2.1
- Rushing Yards: 63.6
Mims’ ADP at No. 238 overall as the WR79 off the board paints a picture that the second-year receiver isn’t set for a breakout season in this retooled Denver offense in 2024. For some additional context, Mims is being drafted after players like Wan’Dale Robinson and Malachi Corley and in the same region as his teammate Franklin in the same round.
There are certainly some reasonable excuses for Mims’s failure to make a significant fantasy impact during his rookie year.
The quarterback play was good but not great. The complexities of operating in Payton’s timing-based scheme may have well resulted in a larger learning curve than that of the offense he played during his days at Oklahoma. Lastly, he did deal with a hamstring injury last summer that possibly left him a bit behind heading into his rookie year.
Ultimately, Mims wasn’t able to earn a consistent or prominent role in this offense behind Sutton or the inconsistent Jeudy. The team added another vertical playmaker this offseason in Franklin as added target competition, and there is no guarantee this passing offense will become more dynamic or productive with a rookie quarterback under center.
At this price point, Mims could be worth a final-round dart throw in leagues that have point bonuses for big plays, but his rookie year in this offense didn’t give us enough to suggest an impending breakout year is on the horizon in 2024.
– Derek Tate, Fantasy Football Analyst
Troy Franklin Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR Fantasy Points: 120.6 (72.4 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 48.2
- Receiving Yards: 530.6
- Receiving TDs: 3.2
The pre-draft process doesn’t always work in a prospect’s favor. One of the biggest examples of this theory was watching Franklin’s meteoric fall down the draft board from the end of the 2023 college football season all the way to the conclusion of the 2024 NFL Draft.
Franklin entered the pre-draft process as a potential Day 1 prospect, but he fell all the way to Day 3 after running slower (4.41-second 40-yard dash time) and measuring smaller (6’2”, 178 lbs.) than expected at the NFL Combine.
This fall from grace would be enough to scare a handful of fantasy managers about how the league views Franklin’s potential in the NFL, but his outlook was subsequently saved by his draft landing spot. Fortunately for the Oregon product, he was selected by the team that invested first-round draft capital in his college quarterback (Nix) to help ease his transition to the NFL game.
Franklin’s ADP at No. 200 overall as the WR71 off the board suggests fantasy managers are probably a bit skeptical about Franklin’s transition to the NFL and the upside of the Broncos’ offense as a whole. For some additional context, Franklin is being selected behind Darnell Mooney, Rashid Shaheed, and Jahan Dotson
Ultimately, it’s hard to say any player selected after the 15th-round selection is a bad pick, especially when you consider Franklin’s production in college with Nix under center.
Ultimately, if you are looking for a player who has an intriguing big-play upside with a potential path to the leading target share, you could do a lot worse than Franklin in the final round of your fantasy draft.
– Tate