The Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders will face off in a playoff eliminator game. The divisional rivals both own 7-7 records through 14 games. Las Vegas is coming off a last-second win against the Cleveland Browns, while Denver lost a close game to the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday. In this article, you’ll find the NFL odds along with my pick and prediction for the Broncos vs. Raiders matchup.
Denver Broncos vs. Las Vegas Raiders pick, prediction | Week 16
- Spread: Raiders -1.5 (Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Moneyline: Broncos +100, Raiders -120
- Over/Under: 42.5
Drew Lock takes over at QB for the Broncos
Teddy Bridgewater is dealing with a concussion, and he’s been labeled unlikely to play this week. Drew Lock will take over as the starting quarterback, and it will be quite a drastic difference in style from Bridgewater.
The most obvious difference is Lock’s gunslinger mentality compared to Bridgewater, who doesn’t take nearly as many shots when under center. The latter has looked downfield more often with Denver, but Lock still outranks him in air yards per attempt.
[bet-promo id=”174860″ ]The other difference is in protecting the ball. Bridgewater owns a 2.2% interception rate throughout his career, and that’s dipped to only 1.6% this season. Lock, on the other hand, has posted a 3.1% interception rate in his NFL tenure. It’s ballooned to 5% in limited snaps this season, and it sat at 3.4% over 13 games last year.
Bridgewaters is the safer option between the duo, although I don’t believe Lock truly has much higher of a ceiling at this point. Still, he’s a solid backup with NFL experience, so there are worse options.
Broncos vs. Raiders betting trends
The Broncos have been neutral in terms of the spread. They own a 7-7 record against the spread (ATS) thus far.
Denver is 2-0 ATS when they have the rest advantage, and they will have that after Las Vegas’ game against the Cleveland Browns was shifted to Monday.
The Raiders have struggled to consistently cover the spread this season, entering this game with a 5-9 ATS record. They’re failing to cover by an average of 3.9 points per game. Las Vegas does own a 2-2 ATS record with the rest disadvantage, though.
Denver has quietly hit the under at the highest rate in the NFL this season. They’ve found it in 78.6% of their games, and they’re hitting the under by an average of 6.3 points per game. Las Vegas has been natural in terms of the game total, finding the over and under at a 50% clip.
Broncos vs. Raiders prediction
This is a difficult game to predict, although I would side with Denver if Bridgewater were able to suit up. I don’t trust Lock not to turn the ball over, and Las Vegas should be given the edge if they see extra opportunities.
I don’t necessarily trust Las Vegas in this game either, which is a concern. Ultimately, I expect the Raiders defense to stifle Lock and Co. while the Broncos defense keeps them in this game.
In an important divisional game, look for the defenses to get the job done this week.
Broncos vs. Raiders Prediction: Raiders 17, Broncos 14