The Denver Broncos will face the Buffalo Bills on Wild Card Weekend. We have fantasy football start-sit advice for every fantasy-relevant player for the Broncos so you can make the best decisions for your lineups.
Are you looking for advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Wild Card Weekend Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Bo Nix, QB
Bo Nix made NFL history as the first rookie QB with 3+ TD passes and a 75% completion rate in four games. He also matched the franchise record for such games in a season (Peyton Manning had four in both 2012 and 2013). We knew that Sean Payton got his guy in the draft, we just had no idea that this would be a fantasy-friendly situation from the jump.
Everyone is picking the Bills to win this game, but few people figure to land on Nix. In what figures to be a fantasy-friendly script for this passing game, Nix could very well be put in a position where he needs to do it all, a nice role given the discounted price in the DFS streets.
Buffalo has plenty of strengths, but they are the worst playoff team in getting off the field (43.8% opponent third-down conversion rate; NFL average: 39.7%) and struggle against the slot (fifth-highest completion percentage). Those weaknesses can elevate Nix’s floor, something that is very appealing given that we are aware of his ceiling potential via Courtland Sutton and/or his rushing ability.
I’m not clicking on Nix in a cash setting where half the field is paid out, but if you’re in a top-heavy payout contest, he’s a very lively option.
Audric Estimé, RB
Audric Estimé has scored in two of his past three games, but you’d have to really be looking to be different to go this direction with Denver being such a big underdog.
NFL dropback rates, 2015-24:
- Trailing: 67.7%
- Tied: 58.2%
- Leading: 51.7%
Rushing attempts could be limited for the Broncos, and that’s a death sentence when it comes to any hope for Estimé. Is it true that a running back in a Sean Payton scheme can scam his way to PPR points? It sure is, but we have no proof that the rookie would be used in such a role.
In a blowout win over the Falcons, he caught three passes in five plays – he has two other catches on his NFL résumé. We are looking at a player who doesn’t have a touch gaining 10+ yards in two months and projects for, at best, 6-8 touches.
I’m fine with targeting uncertainty in a playoff setting, but we seem to have a level of certainty in Estimé not being a consistent part of this offense.
Jaleel McLaughlin, RB
I’m going to do a few irresponsible things here to prove a point. Stick with me here.
In Year 2, Christian McCaffrey picked up 41.8% of his rushing yards after first contact and gained at least 10 yards on 14.2% of his carries.
In Year 2, Jaleel McLaughlin picked up 41.2% of his rushing yards after first contact and gained at least 10 yards on 14.2% of his carries.
Want some more propaganda? You’re in the right spot.
Since Week 12, McLaughlin’s 10+ yard carry rate was up to 18.5%, the highest in the league. The next players on that list among qualifiers:
2. Derrick Henry: 17.2%
3. Jahmyr Gibbs: 16.2%
4. Bijan Robinson: 14.6%
We clearly only have so much film to go on for McLaughlin, but he looks like more than just the best back in Denver. Sean Payton loves what Bo Nix brings to the table, but I don’t think getting into a shootout with Josh Allen is on the to-do list this week, furthering my belief that we could get a true breakout performance from this backfield against a Bills defense that ranks 23rd at preventing running back yardage before contact.
I’ve got him penciled into my first run of a DraftKings GPP lineup for the entire Wild Card slate:
QB: Jayden Daniels (at TB)
RB: Bucky Irving (vs. WAS)
RB: McLaughlin (at BUF)
WR: Ladd McConkey (at HOU)
WR: Cooper Kupp (vs. MIN)
WR: Marvin Mims (at BUF)
TE: Zach Ertz (at TB)
FLEX: Keon Coleman (vs. DEN)
D/ST: Eagles (vs. GB)
Javonte Williams, RB
Thanks, but no thanks. Javonte Williams’ role has been trending in the wrong direction for a while now, and what I saw last week was more than enough for me to have zero interest.
With their season on the line, Jaleel McLaughlin (41.7% share) out-snapped Williams (29.2%) in a meaningful way, and that was the game plan coming in — McLaughlin’s edge was 61.9% to 23.8% in the first quarter.
Williams has multiple receptions in all but two games this season, so if you think the Broncos aren’t competitive in the least, maybe he will get there, but that’s a thin path to success and not one I believe in. Williams is in the final year of his deal, so even if that game script were to play out, wouldn’t Sean Payton be more likely to get his younger options some playoff reps?
I’ll have exposure to plenty of players this weekend, but Williams will not be on that list.
Courtland Sutton, WR
Courtland Sutton has scored 18 times on 225 targets over the past two seasons (previous two seasons: four touchdowns on 207 targets). Touchdowns can be fluky on a game-to-game basis, nevermind season-to-season, but the usage trends are very much in his favor, and that is what I’m comfortable with in this profile
This season, Sutton has seen a career-high 17 end-zone targets and has been thrown at on 31.8% of his red-zone routes (up from 23.3% last season). This offense is better than we could have imagined and they are routinely trusting their WR1 with finishing drives, something that makes the spike in scoring rate much more sustainable.
And it’s only getting better.
During the second half of the season, Sutton has seen 11 end-zone targets, a number that trails only triple-crown winner Ja’Marr Chase, future Hall of Famer Davante Adams, and maybe the best receiver in the sport in Justin Jefferson. The Bills are an average red-zone defense that allows touchdowns on 24.6% of all drives (22nd), giving us every reason to think that Denver’s WR1 can once again produce.
All the signs look great, including the projected game script, but this is the spot where I’m getting my leverage. I’m not confident that any member of Denver garners a ton of ownership. Thus, I’m doubling down in a non-correlated way for my upside lineup and it doesn’t include their alpha target earner.
Marvin Mims Jr., WR
It’s not what you said, it’s how you said it.
We’ve all heard it and we all fear what comes next – luckily, the fantasy football version is a positive. For Marvin Mims Jr. in this Sean Payton offense, it’s not how often he is on the field, but how he’s used. He ran 146 routes this season, just three more than a season ago, but he generated 22 more targets and scored 47.1 more fantasy points.
We often preach patience with young receivers throughout their rookie season, but considering that growth is not linear at the position, why not extend that courtesy into Year 2 with a changing offensive structure?
Mims has been coming on in a big way and played a critical role in the Broncos qualifying for the postseason … and I think he could keep the good times rolling!
The Bills own a bottom-five blitz rate and a bottom-10 pressure rate this season (their pressure rate sits at 32.5%, the lowest among playoff teams). Not to be overly dramatic but Mims turns into an All-Pro receiver when Bo Nix isn’t sped up.
Yards per route run when their QB is not pressured, 2024:
- CeeDee Lamb: 2.70
- Malik Nabers: 2.66
- Justin Jefferson: 2.64
- Mims: 2.62
- Drake London: 2.61
- Tee Higgins: 2.54
The Bills rank 20th in opponent deep completion percentage (45%) and 21st in deep touchdown rate (7.3%), leaving the door open for Mims to make the type of splash play that will be needed for the road team to pull off the upset.
The risk goes without saying – the next game Mims runs 15 routes in a Nix game will be his first. We can force Sean Payton’s hand to put him on the field, but we can be impressed with the chances he has gotten: 28 catches (32 targets) on his 84 routes since Week 10.
The Broncos rank sixth in pass rate over expectation this season after checking in at 24th in Payton’s first season. It’s almost like having a hand-picked QB to run your system helps, go figure. I expect that “expectations” part of that metric to work in our favor with Denver opening as an 8.5-point underdog.
There’s no flier I like more in Wild Card DFS contests this week. For playoff formats, the math changes a bit, as you’d have to like Denver to advance more than I do, so tread lightly there. In weekly GPP formats, by all means, shoot your shot!