The Denver Broncos will face the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 16. We have fantasy football start-sit advice for every fantasy-relevant player for the Broncos so you can make the best decisions for your lineups.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 16 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Bo Nix, QB | DEN
Bo Nix’s 16-yard run in the first quarter last week was great to see, as it was his longest since mid-October and a good reminder of the varied skill set that he brings to the fantasy table.
Also impressive from Week 15’s win was Nix’s 13-yard scoring strike to Adam Trautman. The throw wasn’t anything special, but his understanding of the play and defensive manipulation was not something I expected to see in his 14th career game.
The future is bright for this kid, and Sean Payton is probably the right man in charge when it comes to optimizing his fantasy value. However, I can’t get there this week.
Is Nix hitting a rookie wall despite the team’s success? His QB+ has been trending in the wrong direction of late.
Here’s how his recent results stack up with his classmates since Drake Maye made his NFL debut in terms of QB+ (not directly a fantasy stat, but an all-inclusive metric for overall QB play that I trust).
Nix averaged 6.5 yards per pass in Week 6 against these Chargers, and while he ran for 61 yards, that game was largely unimpressive. The chart above suggests that his play is moving in the wrong direction, and against the fourth-best defense in points allowed per possession, that’s enough for me to slide him outside of my top 12 at the position on a short workweek.
Audric Estimé, RB
If you have a di, assign two numbers to each of Denver’s three running backs and have a roll.
That’s not my exact process, but it would give you about as good a shot as any.
Denver Broncos rushing production, Week 15 vs. Colts:
- Bo Nix: Eight carries for 23 yards (long: 16 yards)
- Jaleel McLaughlin: Seven carries for 21 yards (long: 12 yards)
- Javonte Willams: Six carries for 15 yards (long: four yards)
- Estimé: Five carries for 13 yards (long: six)
- Marvin Mims Jr.: One carry for zero yards
Audric Estimé has looked good in spurts during his rookie season, but without much of a path to double-digit touches, he ranks the lowest of this tightly bunched backfield for me this week.
Jaleel McLaughlin, RB
I’m not sure it’s consensus, but to my eye, Jaleel McLaughlin is the running back who projects best in this Denver backfield moving forward.
I’m not talking as much about the rest of this season as I am about the future. The Chargers held the Broncos RBs to 44 yards on 11 carries in the Week 6 meeting, proving more vulnerable to Bo Nix’s legs than anything (61 rush yards).
Los Angeles is a tough defense to crack in any situation, but when we are unsure of where the touches are going, there’s no reason to get cute. They are the best red-zone defense in the league (40% touchdown rate, nearly 17 percentage points better than the league average), so even if you knew which of these three RBs was going to get 50% of the backfield touches, I’m not sold that it would matter.
Sean Payton has settled on his QB of the future, and he’s a viable asset now — if we can get him to do that entering next season when it comes to his backfield, I’ll be forever grateful.
Javonte Williams, RB
If you’re chasing Broncos backfield touches, I feel for you. I also admire your willingness to explore all potential options.
I also think you’re nuts.
The Chargers own the lowest running back rush TD rate in the league, and Javonte Williams hasn’t reached double figures in carries since Nov. 3; I truly believe that this is a hot-hand situation where the coaching staff has no idea who is going to lead in touches in a given week.
I have Williams ranked second in this backfield, but none of them grace my top 30 at the position.
Courtland Sutton, WR
Courtland Sutton was shut out on 28 routes against the Saints in Week 7 — he has at least six catches or a touchdown in every game since.
This is a tough matchup, and without consistent help on the perimeter, it’s very possible that the Chargers allocate all of their resources toward stopping Denver’s WR1. That said, they couldn’t stop him from scoring in Week 8, and the door is wide open for a single target to make Sutton a viable WR2.
With Bo Nix willing to take shots, Sutton has racked up 115+ air yards in three straight games (and five of seven), not a bad path to glory against the worst defense in terms of deep pass TD%. Now, that stat needs to be contextualized — Los Angeles isn’t challenged downfield a ton, but the point remains.
There’s always going to be risk when counting on a receiver who relies on a rookie QB in a tough matchup, but it’s unlikely that you have three receivers who I prefer over Sutton and his eight straight top-30 finishes.
