The Denver Broncos will face the Cleveland Browns in Week 13. We have fantasy football start-sit advice for every fantasy-relevant player for the Broncos so you can make the best decisions for your lineups.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 13 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Bo Nix, QB
Bo Nix has three straight games with multiple passing touchdowns and 30 pass attempts with zero interceptions. No rookie has ever done it in four straight games (Daniel Jones and Lamar Jackson authored such games against the Browns this season).
Could this be a historic spot for the rookie? Could Nix take over the Rookie of the Year betting board?
Nix has seven QB1 finishes this season and has been at his best when his best is needed — 12 completions on 14 red-zone pass attempts over the past three weeks (six touchdowns).
This high-pressure defense gives me some concerns, which is why I’ve cautiously ranked Nix as my QB15 this week, a respectable ranking in a matchup that isn’t great and with all 32 teams in action.
Audric Estimé, RB
In Week 10 against the Chiefs, we thought we saw a changing of the guard in Denver. In Week 11, we were less sure, but Audric Estimé did catch three passes, and that at least allowed us to retain some hope that the fifth-round rookie could carve out a niche in this creative Sean Payton offense with a breaking out Bo Nix.
Those hopes, however, were dashed against the Raiders on Sunday — three carries and zero targets. Payton pretty clearly has commitment issues when it comes to the hierarchy of his backfield (six different players had a carry), and with Nix moving the ball around (nine players saw a target in Week 12), I can’t imagine a world in which you’re feeling confident enough to plug in Estimé at any point moving forward.
There are players on your waiver wire that have more scoring equity than Estimé.
Javonte Williams, RB
Think all the way back to Sunday’s Broncos game. You probably remember Bo Nix making plays, a Courtland Sutton touchdown or two, and maybe even the chunk play from Marvin Mims Jr.
Think really hard.
Do you remember anything from Javonte Williams?
I had him on a DFS roster and got paid to watch this stuff, and my answer is “no”. A look back at the stats confirms — nope, nothing of note.
Nothing positive at least.
From Week 18 of 2021 through Week 12 of 2024, there have been 2,032 instances in which a player had at least eight carries in a game, and none of them averaged fewer yards per carry before contact than Williams on Sunday against, of all teams, the Raiders.
Minus 2.13 yards.
The average distance a running back lines up behind the line of scrimmage is roughly seven yards. That means that, with zero resistance and a designed dive, you’d expect him to meet the defenders 3.5 yards behind the line of scrimmage.
What Williams did on Sunday wasn’t much better than that, and that’s with an offensive line of full-grown men blocking for him with full knowledge of where the play is going, an advantage that the defense clearly doesn’t have.
Entering Week 12, the Raiders ranked 12th in preventing running back yards per carry before contact, a nice ranking, but it’s not as if this is an all-time defense or anything like that. What the Broncos put on tape last season was a problem. A big problem. Williams was the victim on Sunday, but I can’t imagine starting any of their running backs in even the deepest of formats right now.
Sean Payton involves the running backs in the passing game, and that’s great, but with three mouths to feed and only one viable outlet to do so — you’re asking for trouble if you invest in any capacity here.
Courtland Sutton, WR
This Bo Nix experience has been fun for fantasy managers, and it’s been an even more enjoyable run for Courtland Sutton, the proud owner of three top-six finishes at the position over the past month.
Everything has been encouraging in terms of his profile lately, and that includes a season-high in slot usage a week ago (33.9% of his routes), a development that could give him a strong floor to complement a ceiling that we’ve had access to lately.
But could it all come crashing down this week?
The Browns are not the intimidating matchup that we expected them to be three months ago, but even in a disappointing season, they sit atop the league in pressure rate (43% of opponent dropbacks). Nix has been great, but like most rookies, when you apply pressure, the game tends to move faster than can be processed confidently.
Broncos’ passing success in Weeks 6-12, 2024:
- Nix when not pressured: Fourth in passer rating (better than Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert)
- Nix when pressured: 23rd in passer rating (worse than Cooper Rush)
I bet the Broncos’ team total to go under 24.5 points when the lines first dropped this week with that thought in mind, and that has me lower on all members of this offense than consensus. That doesn’t mean I’m benching this alpha receiver, but it does mean I have him as a low-end WR2 while I’ve seen others putting him in the WR1 conversation.
Josh Reynolds, WR
Josh Reynolds (finger) was activated from injured reserve two weeks ago and has been practicing, but he was ultimately inactive for Week 12. The surprise Broncos are a better team now than the one Reynolds left injured in Week 5, but Denver has yet to unlock the secondary pass-catcher role next to Courtland Sutton.
Broncos receiving yardage leaders, 2024:
- Courtland Sutton: 744 receiving yards (T-9th in the NFL)
- Devaughn Vele: 361 (89th)
- Lil’Jordan Humphrey: 267 (123rd)
- Javonte Williams: 256 (129th)
- Josh Reynolds: 183 (166th)
Could Reynolds be the answer to that question? Do the Broncos need to answer this question?
This is a wait-and-see situation in my eyes. I like Reynolds to fill that role, but with Denver yet to go on bye, you’d be adding Reynolds now to potentially cut him ahead of Week 14 without ever having played him.
I’ll be tracking all the needed rates, so check back weekly for an update — but at the moment, I’m leaving Reynolds on waiver wires.
Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos Trends
Cleveland Browns
Team: Over the past month, the Browns are 2-2 with wins over the Ravens/Steelers and losses to the Chargers/Saints. Their point differential across those four games is -28.
QB: Even in the conditions and against an elite defense, Jameis Winston continued to inch up his in-pocket completion percentage (58.1% in Week 9, 61.9% in Week 11, and 63.6% in Week 12).
Offense: Cleveland picked up 53.3% of their third downs in the upset win over the Ravens in Week 8. That rate fell to 35.3% in Week 9, 23.1% in Week 11, and 10% in Week 12 (one-of-10).
Defense: In their first five games, the Browns allowed 6.2 net yards per pass attempt, a rate that has swelled to 8.3 since (up 33.9%).
Fantasy: The two touchdowns, including the game-winner, were nice to see from Nick Chubb, but be careful. This season, just 4.1% of his carries have gained 10+ yards, far below his career norm entering this season (15.8%).
Betting: The Browns have failed to cover 10 of their past 14 games played on extended rest. In 202, his boom/bust rate was 0% (he had the same number of 10+ yard runs as carries that were stopped for no gain).
Denver Broncos
Team: Could the Broncos post their first double-digit win season since 2015? They need to win three of five games to close the season. Based on lookahead lines, their average spread moving forward is +2.3 points.
QB: Bo Nix has completed 12-of-14 red zone passes (six touchdowns) over the past three weeks.
Offense: The Broncos allow pressure on just 30% of dropbacks, the sixth lowest in the NFL (they ranked 28th last season).
Defense: The Broncos were embarrassed in Baltimore, giving up 41 points during the Week 9 loss. They’ve allowed 41 points in the three weeks since.
Fantasy: Nix has three straight games with multiple passing touchdowns and 30 pass attempts with zero interceptions – no rookie has ever done it in four straight games (Daniel Jones and Lamar Jackson authored such games against the Browns this season).
Betting: The Broncos have seen eight of their past 10 home games played at home in Week 13 or later.