The Denver Broncos are hoping to rebound in 2023 from a disastrous 2022 season. With new head coach Sean Payton recrafting the offense and a healthier roster entering the year, the Broncos could become playoff contenders. However, with last year going so poorly, we explore whether the franchise is closer to rebuilding than contending.
How the Broncos Can Contend in 2023
The 2022 season was an absolute mess. No one could’ve expected the Broncos’ offense to finish dead last in scoring. They also suffered embarrassing losses to the Raiders, Colts, Jets, Panthers, and Rams at various points of the season.
Head coach Nathaniel Hackett was quickly exposed for being in over his head after being hired to help lure Aaron Rodgers to Denver. When that plan failed, the Broncos traded a bevy of picks and players for Russell Wilson. Denver doubled down by handing Wilson a massive $245 million extension.
For as bad as Hackett was, he was as much of a victim as he was the main culprit for why the Broncos were bad. Wilson became unplayable, and an ACL tear limited Javonte Williams to only four games played. The vaunted receiving corps never took off until Jerry Jeudy exploded in the final six weeks of the season.
Though there were some concerning moments in Wilson’s 2021 season with Seattle, no one could’ve expected his performance to fall off a cliff in Denver. Even mundane throws looked impossible for Wilson, and he alienated himself by having a personal office away from teammates. He ranked fourth in interceptable throws but had only 16 passing touchdowns, and his accuracy dropped to 31st while under pressure.
The Broncos have to get Wilson back to at least an average level to contend, first and foremost. Payton has already gotten rid of Wilson’s office and said the culture will change as the team is meticulous in their attention to detail. While Payton’s arrogance is unappealing, he consistently produced winning teams in New Orleans with his approach, and that approach is an upgrade from Hackett.
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Everyone will benefit from Wilson getting back to even his 2021 level of play. Payton can rebalance the offense to be less dependent on deep passes. It’s unacceptable that a diminished Wilson led the NFL in deep-ball attempts and was fourth in air yards per attempt, given his dip in accuracy and athleticism outside of the pocket.
A more efficient offense gets more out of Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, and the rest of the deep receiving corps. Williams is “on track” to return this season, but Denver did well to add veteran Samaje Perine as an acceptable fill-in. Considering nine of the Broncos’ 11 losses were by one score, the bar for the offense to improve enough to win isn’t high.
The defense is already playoff-worthy. Losing defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero and replacing him with Vance Joseph is a downgrade, but the unit is still one of the most talented groups in the NFL. Pass rushers Randy Gregory and Baron Browning will define Denver’s upside, but the floor is a top-10 unit.
Things need to go right for Denver to be a playoff contender in 2023, but it wasn’t long ago the expectations were much different, and for good reason.
Why The Broncos Would Rebuild in 2023
The Broncos experienced the worst-case scenario in 2022. Wilson looked like a complete shell of himself, losing any explosiveness in his legs and no longer possessing the incredible accuracy that has defined him. It’s overly simplistic to say this season rests on him, but the organization has already admitted as much.
Denver can part ways with Wilson in 2024, albeit in an expensive way. NBC Sports’ Matthew Berry reported this year is a one-year audition for Payton to keep or dump Wilson. It makes more sense for Payton to cut bait early than to go down with a sinking ship at the quarterback position, given the team has to compete with Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert within the AFC West.
While Wilson is the key — and the Broncos will know within the first month whether he’s salvageable — more could go wrong even if he gets to an average level of play. If Denver’s offense can’t produce a decent running game without Williams, or if Sutton can’t become the star he once looked to become, the unit won’t be good enough to reach the postseason.
The defense also looks more like a sure thing but may not be with a scheme change. Joseph runs a more aggressive unit that will put young cornerbacks Damarri Mathis and Riley Moss more at risk of giving up explosive plays. The combination of an offense that can’t move the ball and a defense that allows fast drives is the worst-case scenario.
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Denver won’t have long to decide on their direction. Wilson can be released with a post-June 1 designation next offseason that will spread his cap hits in a manageable way. But since Denver’s only 2024 draft pick before Round 4 is their first-rounder, they’ll have to consider bottoming out for USC’s Caleb Williams with their own pick since they lack other assets.
A true rebuild means the team could field offers for Jeudy, Sutton, and even star safety Justin Simmons. Cleaning the books for 2024 and beyond will become the priority as this roster ages.
Denver’s start to the season is easier than their post-bye schedule. Having a losing record by their Week 9 bye would be a sign of worse things to come. The Broncos would then have to think about their long-term outlook with this roster if they can’t quickly build chemistry.